Category: Global Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Saturday, May 29, 2010
U.S., Canada, Germany and Japan Back to Pre-2003 Industrial Production Levels / Economics / Global Economy
An interesting chart from the Bank of Japan's latest monthly economic report.
Japanese capacity utilization is way down. Around 20% of manufacturing facilities are standing idle.
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Thursday, May 27, 2010
Greece, Portugal and Spain Are the Least of Our Economic, Financial Challenges / Economics / Global Economy
After hitting a cycle high of 1217.28 on April 23, 2010, the S&P 500 stock market index fell by 10.65% in the following 20 trading days. The media would have you believe that the ongoing "official" correction in the U.S. equities market is all about the southern member states of the Euro-zone - Greece, Portugal and Spain (GPS). Although concern about the economically-weak and highly-indebted Euro-zone states have played a role in the U.S. equities market correction, we think there is more to the correction than GPS. Moreover, we believe that the problems of these challenged Euro-zone members will not have a significant effect on U.S. or global economic activity in the foreseeable future. China might, but not Greece, Portugal and Spain.
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Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Cold Reality of the State of the World Economy / Economics / Global Economy
For those who are still in denial regarding the extent of the economic/financial issues we are facing, the table below should put things into perspective.
Source: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/f.. What this table reflects is the percentage of GDP that will need to be applied by the various countries – during the year 2010 – to meet this year’s sovereign debt repayment obligations and to finance this year’s forecast budget deficits.
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Monday, May 17, 2010
The World Has No Money, And The Emperor Has No Clothes / Economics / Global Economy
Most of us are aware of the very old fairly tale by Hans Christian Andersen in which two weavers promise an emperor the finest suit of clothes imaginable, but from a fabric invisible to anyone who is unfit for his position or "just hopelessly stupid". Well, in the fairy tale it turns out that nobody wants to admit that they are "unfit" or "stupid", so when the emperor parades before his subjects in his imaginary new suit of clothes, it takes a child to cry out: "But he isn't wearing anything at all!"Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 08, 2010
The Global Bubble Has Reflated / Economics / Global Economy
Back in the Spring of 2009, the World Bank forecast that the global economy would contract by 1.7% that year; the first global contraction since the Great Depression (yet another clear indicator we are in a depression).
As it turns out, they were quite conservative (as you would expect). Latest numbers from the World Bank show a decline in global GDP by 2.2% for 2009.
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Wednesday, April 07, 2010
U.S. Will Lose a Trade War with China / Politics / Global Economy
In light of the number of manufacturing and goods producing jobs lost in America over the past decade, it’s no wonder why many in Washington and on Main St. are clamoring for a trade and currency war with China. The raucous has grown so loud that Congress, Treasury and the Commerce department may soon be forced to declare China a currency manipulator. Senators Lindsey Graham (R) South Carolina and Chuck Schumer (D) New York have introduced legislation that would compel the Treasury to cite the Chinese as currency manipulators, which would allow the Commerce Department to impose duties and tariffs upon them.
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Wednesday, April 07, 2010
Protectionism Didn’t Cause the Great Depression / Economics / Global Economy
The debate over free trade is riddled with myth after myth. One that keeps resurfacing again and again, no matter how many times it is discredited, is the idea that protectionism caused the Great Depression. One occasionally even hears that the same protectionism—specifically the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930— was responsible in significant part for World War Two! This is nonsense dreamed up for propaganda purposes by free traders, and can easily be debunked.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 04, 2010
Economic Doomsday 2012 In The Cards / Politics / Global Economy
When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of
the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes...
Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole
object is gain." - Napoleon Bonaparte, 1815
Saturday, April 03, 2010
The Mythical Concept of Trade War / Politics / Global Economy
As Americans ponder how to get the U.S. out of its current trade mess, we are constantly warned to do nothing – like impose a tariff to neutralize Chinese currency manipulation – that would trigger a “trade war.” Supposedly, no matter how bad our problems with our trading partners get, they are less bad than the spiraling catastrophe that would ensue if we walked a single inch away from our current policy of unilateral free trade.
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Saturday, March 27, 2010
America and China, the Next Major War / Economics / Global Economy
In the current phase of relative peace and stability we now enjoy, many are questioning when the next major war may occur and speculation is rampant as to major participants involved. Our concern here is strictly of a financial nature, however, and a discussion of the geopolitical and military variables involved in the escalation of war is beyond the scope of this commentary. But what we can divine from financial history is that “hot” wars in a military sense often emerge from trade wars. As we shall see, the elements for what could prove to be a trade war of epic proportions are already in place and the key figures are easily identifiable.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 08, 2010
2010 Global Economic Growth to Disappoint / Economics / Global Economy
Before we get to this week's Outside the Box, a quick note about my writing on Greece in last Saturday's letter. I made the point that if Greece defaults it does not necessarily mean they have to leave the EU, any more than if Illinois defaulted they would have to leave the United States. Greece could still use the euro and life could go on. EXCEPT. The markets would no longer lend the Greek government money at anything close to a livable rate. Greece would be forced to balance its budget. Since they are part of the euro, devaluing the currency is not an option. The results of controlling their fiscal deficit would not initially be pretty and would almost insure a serious prolonged recession or depression in the Greek area, with fall out in the region. It would be a sad decade for Greece. But in the long run, it is a better option than default.
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Thursday, January 28, 2010
China Reigns in Davos / Economics / Global Economy
The 40th World Economic Forum started working in Davos on January 27. Russia’s Vladimir Putin opened the forum last year, but neither Russian, nor US leaders are going to attend the event this year.
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Wednesday, December 30, 2009
U.S. China Steel Tariffs Show Protectionism On The Rise / Politics / Global Economy
Price of steel is going up. Is that a good thing? For who? Please consider U.S. Trade Panel Rules for Domestic Steelmakers Against Chinese Imports.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Fundamental Economic Data for the Week Dec 14-18 / Economics / Global Economy
EU:
• Monday: France Current Account (Previous -3.7B, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Employment QoQ (Previous -0.5%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -1.8%, Forecast N/A). Euro-Zone Industrial Production MoM (Previous 0.3%, Forecast -0.7%) & YoY (Previous -12.9%, Forecast -10.8%).
Monday, November 30, 2009
Dubai Debt Bubble Bursting Triggering Financial Shock Waves / Interest-Rates / Global Economy
You know about Dubai's economic crisis. But do you know the background to - and fallout from - the crisis?
A Brief History
Historically, Dubai had an oil-based economy.
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Friday, November 20, 2009
The Great U.S. China Romance / Politics / Global Economy
The newspapers are a-buzz with stories of Obama’s trip to China. The Financial Times tells us what “he should have said.” According to the FT, the American president should have told the Chinese that he wasn’t going to put the US into depression just to protect the value of China’s dollar holdings.
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Sunday, November 15, 2009
What Is At Stake With Free Trade / Economics / Global Economy
In the ten years since the World Trade Organization (WTO) protests in Seattle, global opposition to free trade and “globalization” has exploded. The general public now has a basic understanding of how the world economy works … against them: companies scour the globe searching for slave wages, which help push down wages in “developed” countries; any regulation that reduces profits — environmental, financial, labor, etc. — is destroyed or ignored.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Monetary Policy Outlook / Interest-Rates / Global Economy
Deleted.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Megacities Generate a Third of World’s GDP / Economics / Global Economy
GDP of the world’s largest cities with emerging economies will experience rapid growth. In 2008 the largest 100 cities accounted for about 30% of global GDP and some have bigger economies than medium-sized countries like Sweden or Switzerland. Within the last three years, Moscow has leaped from the 25th to the 15th place in this rating.
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Saturday, October 17, 2009
U.S. Tax Payer Dollars Funding Sweatshops Globally / Politics / Global Economy
In July 2008, SweatFree Communities (SFC) released a report titled, "Subsidizing Sweatshops: How Our Tax Dollars Fund the Race to the Bottom, and What Cities and States Can Do" in which it studied 12 factories in nine countries that produce employee uniforms for nine major companies.
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