Category: Global Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, October 05, 2009
Faltering World Economic Recovery? / Economics / Global Economy
It would be nice and easy to believe that the road to economic recovery is now clear and straightforward after the financial market crash of 2007-2009. Equity markets have had one of the best quarters ever, corporate and government bond yields have fallen sharply and spreads, in cash and corporate bonds, are narrower than at any time since the crisis gathered momentum in 2008. Economic growth has resumed in Q2 or Q3 of 2009 for most economies after a year of declines. Housing markets (US, UK, Spain, Ireland) are seeing a flattening in activity after the sharp falls of the past year or some modest up-tick. And manufacturing output is recovering from its lows in most countries. But there are some signs that the pace of the recovery is losing momentum and faltering. We look at some of these issues in this Weekly Report, starting with recent trends in financial markets.
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Friday, September 25, 2009
G20, The Price of Pretense in Pittsburgh / Politics / Global Economy
As another G20 meeting rolls around, this time on home soil, the time comes once again for the economically curious but politically unconnected to wonder what is really happening behind closed doors. But while admiring the pageantry, chuckling at the awkward group photos, and parsing the joint communiqués like newly found Dead Sea scrolls, the overwhelming majority of observers will miss the meeting's dominant theme: hypocrisy.
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Friday, September 25, 2009
The U.S. and China Put on Their Boxing Gloves … / Economics / Global Economy
If someone loaned you $600 BILLION, and you wanted to borrow even more, you’d be very careful to stay on his good side, wouldn’t you?
Of course you would! But that is exactly the opposite of how Washington is treating Chinese government lenders.
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Thursday, September 24, 2009
G20 Leaders Discuss Global Financial Crisis as Economies Recover / Economics / Global Economy
G20 leaders will gather in Pittsburgh today to assess their efforts to ease the impact of the global financial crisis and to consider next steps. There is no doubt that both the financial markets and global economy are on a sounder footing since the previous meeting in London five months ago, bolstered, in part, by the co-ordinated response agreed at that summit.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Global Trade Battle Explained / Economics / Global Economy
The Obama Administration waited until the wee hours of September 11th, 2009 to quietly inform Americans of its decision to slap new tariffs against low-end tire imports from China. Coming only days before this week's important G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh, an occasion when China will likely renew its campaign to push the world towards a post-dollar economy, the timing of the announcement seems particularly ill-advised. To be frank, it is like waving a red flag in front of a bull. It is not surprising that China instantly retaliated with their own duties on U.S. auto parts and agricultural products.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2009
The G20’s Crowded Agenda / Economics / Global Economy
Deleted.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
U.S. Trade Spat with China Unlikely to Escalates Into Trade War / Companies / Global Economy
Jason Simpkins writes: Shortly after U.S. President Barack Obama announced hefty import duties on Chinese-made tires, China's Ministry of Commerce over the weekend said it would explore possible sanctions against U.S. automobile and chicken imports.
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Tuesday, September 22, 2009
G-20 Globalization Goes Bankrupt / Politics / Global Economy
The rage of the disposed is fracturing the country, dividing it into camps that are unmoored from the political mainstream. Movements are building on the ends of the political spectrum that have lost faith in the mechanisms of democratic change. You can’t blame them. But unless we on the left move quickly, this rage will be captured by a virulent and racist right wing, one that seeks a disturbing proto-fascism.
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Monday, September 21, 2009
Welcome World to Pittsburgh: Time For More Than Yak at the G20? / Politics / Global Economy
Can Obama Help Forge A Global Consensus for Deep Economic Change?
Dear International Leaders and Guests,
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Monday, September 21, 2009
Trade Wars and Protectionism are Not Free Trade / Politics / Global Economy
Two weeks ago, both the administration and the Fed announced with straight faces that the recession was over and the signs of economic recovery were clear. Then last week, the president made a stunning decision that signals the administration’s determination to repeat the mistakes of the Great Depression.
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Saturday, September 19, 2009
Protectionism Enemy of Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy
In the most global-reaching recession since the Great Depression, protectionism is a poison pill for recovery. And we got a taste of it this week …
The Chinese supply about 19 percent of the U.S. tire market. And the Obama administration just slapped a 35 percent tariff on those imports!
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Tuesday, September 15, 2009
U.S. China Tire Trade War Could Lead to Second Great Depression / Economics / Global Economy
Martin Hutchinson writes: When U.S. President Barack Obama late Friday (Sept. 11) signed an order that imposed an additional duty of 35% on tires imported from China, it set up the potential for an old-fashioned trade war.
Currently, global trade is down only 20%. During normal times, worldwide commerce would recover on its own. But as most investors understand all too well, these aren't normal times.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2009
U.S. Trade War with China Escalates / Politics / Global Economy
Jason Simpkins writes: Shortly after U.S. President Barack Obama announced hefty import duties on Chinese-made tires, China's Ministry of Commerce over the weekend said it would explore possible sanctions against U.S. automobile and chicken imports.
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Monday, September 14, 2009
Obama Risks Global Trade War With China on Misguided Tariffs / Politics / Global Economy
On Wednesday, in a dispute over the price of steel pipe, the US Fires Opening Salvo In Trade Wars With China. Late Friday evening trade wars heated up again as Obama Fires the US' Second Shot In Trade War With China.
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Monday, August 10, 2009
Economics Weekly, FOMC Meeting and BoE Inflation Report Take Centre Stage / Economics / Global Economy
After last week’s European central bank announcements, attention turns to Wednesday’s US FOMC meeting. We expect an unchanged 0-0.25% federal funds target range and for the policy statement to reiterate that this is likely to continue for an extended period. The statement may also touch on the exit strategy from QE, although the question of timing is likely to remain open. The Bank of Japan also announces its policy decision, amid signs that economic conditions have stopped deteriorating.
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Friday, June 12, 2009
Global Booming Arms Trade Reaching $1.5 trillion / Politics / Global Economy
World’s leading countries spend too much of their war preparations. A new arms race has been gathering pace in the world recently, and even the global economic setback does not seem to be a reason to stop the race.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Rebooting the Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
The greatest economic realignment since Genghis Kahn took over Eurasia’s trade routes is continuing apace. The west remains mired in an assets contraction of its own making, and the east is refocused on channeling its growth engines into domestic consumption. The resource sector, which is our focus and which has been governed by those growth engines for a decade and half, is indicating at least the expectation of continuing gains in the east. That does not mean we ignore what is going on the developed west, plus Japan.
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Thursday, May 28, 2009
Trade Protectionism and Global Economic Contraction / Economics / Global Economy
Prof. Rodrigue Tremblay writes: “I almost went down on my knees to beg [President] Herbert Hoover to veto the asinine Hawley-Smoot Tariff.”... “That Act intensified nationalism all over the world.” Thomas Lamont, banker and economic adviser, June 1930
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Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Debt Crisis Economic End Game, Future Evolution of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio / Economics / Global Economy
Nearly everyone I talk with has the sense that we are at some critical point in our economic and national paths, not just in the US but in the world. One path will lead us back to relative growth and another set of choices leads us down a path which will put a very real drag on economic growth and recovery. For most of us, there is very little we can do (besides vote and lobby) about the actual choices. What we can do is adjust our personal portfolios to be synchronized with the direction of the economy. The question is "What will that direction be?"
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Monday, March 23, 2009
Diverse Economy Comes After Communism and Capitalism / Politics / Global Economy
In 1991 communism failed. In 2008 capitalism failed us. In the space of 17 years, two great economic systems based upon very elaborate and self-convinced ideologies collapsed. Two great peoples, American and Russian, are stunned and wandering in a vacuous period of human history, in a great pause between ages.Read full article... Read full article...