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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Risk Analysis

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

InvestorEducation

Tuesday, December 02, 2014

Dangerous Nonsense: Trading the Equity Curve and Market Timing / InvestorEducation / Risk Analysis

By: Submissions

Anthony Garner writes: Using a simple system it is said to be possible to achieve a better risk adjusted return than would be achieved by buy and hold. Maximum drawdown may be less severe and standard deviation may be lower.

Much is made by the retail investment community (and indeed others who should know better) of the advantages of algorithmic market timing based on limited testing over limited timeframes and over an even more limited number of instruments.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Tail Risk - Investors Suffering Permanent Loss / Stock-Markets / Risk Analysis

By: Fred_Sheehan

In a recent memo to Oaktree Capital clients, Chairman Howard Marks writes about "the time I spent advising a sovereign wealth fund about how to organize for the next thirty years. My presentation was built significantly around my conviction that risk can't be quantified a priori. Another of their advisors, a professor from a business school north of New York, insisted it can. This is something I prefer not to debate, especially with people who're sure they have the answer but haven't bet much money on it."

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Responding to Financial Crisis Risk With intelligent Analytics / Stock-Markets / Risk Analysis

By: Submissions

Joe Budden writes: Following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, many veteran traders were faced with a totally different financial landscape in which to operate. The ‘New Normal’, a term first coined by Pimco trader, Mohammed El-Erian, became the finance community’s go-to word for a new world order which bore more similarities with the post Depression era than anything investors had previously experienced.

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Portfolio

Saturday, November 03, 2012

The Role of Risk in Portfolio Investment Asset Allocation / Portfolio / Risk Analysis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDiversification of your investments is the only real free lunch, or so we are told. But how do we go about deciding what to diversify into? In this week’s short Outside the Box, my friend Jason Hsu of Research Affiliates argues that the real basis for diversification should be risk. And given that risk seems to be rising everywhere we look, thinking about how to deal with risk in our portfolios makes a great deal of sense.

I’m also including in today’s OTB a complementary piece by good friend Charles Gave of GaveKal. This is a short piece that is long on common sense and that winds up with a straightforward list of places where we can invest to minimize risk.

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InvestorEducation

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

How to build an Optimal Investment Portfolio with Markowatz'​s Portfolio Theory? / InvestorEducation / Risk Analysis

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere have been many changes in today’s stock market trading landscape which is dominated by computers and ECN networks as compared to the ‘open outcry’ system that existed until the early 1980s. During those days markets are relatively inefficient in a way that price change does not reflect the change in the news and events. Those who can get hold of technologies will have the upper hand in trading the markets because they will receive the news much sooner than the rest of us. Those who possess telex, fax and computers will certainly have an advantage not only in receiving the news but also in executing the buy and sell orders.

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InvestorEducation

Monday, April 23, 2012

General Thoughts About Luck / InvestorEducation / Risk Analysis

By: Ashvin_Pandurangi

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

As someone who plays poker regularly, I'd like to think that I have a good understanding of why luck is important in our lives. It's NOT because the world is completely random and we have no influence over what outcomes will materialize for us - actually, it is the very fact that we do make meaningful decisions in the face of uncertainty that generates luck. Let me try to explain what I mean with an analogy to the game of poker.

Poker is a game of skill, which means those players with superior skills (patience, discipline, memory, critical/logical thinking, mathematical analysis) have a long-term edge over the less skillful among them. It is a very simple game with simple rules governing what each player can do (fold, call, bet, raise), what order they can do it in, how much they can bet at any given time, which hands rank higher than others, etc.

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InvestorEducation

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Investor Parachutes vs. Pillows: Why Diversification Doesn't Work / InvestorEducation / Risk Analysis

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePrechter and Kendall's "All the Same Market" Analysis Shows how Diversification Can't Protect You from Correlated Risk

A dear friend of mine wants to celebrate an important health milestone by going skydiving with friends. She feels happy and healthy and excited. She wants to do something very thrilling to celebrate.

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Portfolio

Sunday, October 31, 2010

This Simple Step Could Save Your Investment Portfolio / Portfolio / Risk Analysis

By: Jared_Levy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJust about every stockbroker, financial advisor or money manager worth their weight in salt knows that diversification is a major way to us to manage investment risk.

But here's what most -- professionals and retail investors alike fail to remember: Diversification doesn't just mean choosing to invest in different companies that do different things and that's it. Creating real diversity and ultimately protecting your investment portfolio involves a little more work, which amazingly, most professionals still get wrong.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 18, 2010

The Four Portfolio Investment Risks You Can’t Avoid / Stock-Markets / Risk Analysis

By: Investment_U

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlexander Green writes: We’re making money hand over fist – locking in significant double- and triple-digit gains – in our Oxford Trading Portfolio, Seven Deadly Sins Portfolio, Oxford All-Star Portfolio, Momentum Portfolio, Insider Portfolio and our New Frontier Portfolio.

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Currencies

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Currency Exchange Rates Can Hurt Your Stocks Investment Portfolios / Currencies / Risk Analysis

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: You may be facing immense foreign-currency risks in your investment portfolio - and not even realize it. If that's the case, don't feel bad: You're not alone.

The reality is that most American investors have no idea that currency exchange rates directly affect U.S. corporate earnings, this country's stock market, or the growth rate of our economy.

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Portfolio

Saturday, September 18, 2010

A Value Investors View of Portfolio Risk vs. Diversification / Portfolio / Risk Analysis

By: Hans_Wagner

Diversification is the one of the ways to reduce risk, or so we learned. While a properly diversified portfolio might reduce your risk of loss, it also lowers the chance you have to achieve market-beating returns.

If you are a value investor, you find that your approach already reduces your risk of loss without having to resort to various diversification schemes.

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Sunday, August 01, 2010

How to Cut the Risk in Your Stocks Portfolio / / Risk Analysis

By: Bryan_Rich

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI normally talk only about currencies in my Money and Markets columns. But today I want to make an exception and address some commonly held misconceptions many investors have about their investments.

For the typical individual investor it’s easy to get caught up in the 24-hour a day media hype of the stock market. So it’s no surprise that  many live and die with the direction of the market. They’ve bought hook-line-and-sinker into the notion that blindly plowing money into stocks is the only way to grow their wealth.

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InvestorEducation

Friday, July 30, 2010

Risk, The Essence Of Investing / InvestorEducation / Risk Analysis

By: Steve_Selengut

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMost investors incorrectly think of "risk" as the possibility that the market value of a financial asset might fall below the amount that he or she has invested in the asset. OMG, how could this be happening!

Think about it. The harboring of these misconceptions (that lower market price = loss or bad and/or that higher market price = profit or good) is the greatest risk creator of all. It invariably causes inappropriate actions within the large mass of individuals who are uninitiated in the ways of the investment gods.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Stock Market Investors 2010 Risk Reward Focus, Calm Seas, Blood in the Water / Stock-Markets / Risk Analysis

By: Bob_Clark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe picture below is a little cheesy but I think it depicts the way many investors feel right now as they sit isolated, feeling trapped and abandoned.  They may have listened to the fear mongers and pulled their pensions or are thinking about it, maybe they fired their advisor and are cuddled up with their cash wondering what to do next.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 03, 2009

What Can Tell You if Stock Market Risk Levels Are Increasing? / Stock-Markets / Risk Analysis

By: Marty_Chenard

Imagine this ... John is hiking up a 5 mile mountain. After each mile hiked, he notices that he is tiring and that he needs more time to rest.

He just finished his third mile, and he is starting the next mile with less energy ... but he still has energy left. The reality is that with each additional mile hiked, his energy is lessening.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 09, 2009

Aussie Dollar Signaling Financial Markets Risk Appetite Is Vulnerable to Reversal / Stock-Markets / Risk Analysis

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBryan Rich writes: According to the financial markets, the world has become a very calm and comfortable place again. But has it?

Just a year ago markets were crashing all around us …

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InvestorEducation

Friday, October 31, 2008

Investment Portfolio Risk Matching Strategy / InvestorEducation / Risk Analysis

By: Richard_Shaw

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhether we are coaching you as you manage your assets, or whether we are managing assets for you, if your investment account is mature, we follow this general approach — appropriately tweaked to your specific process preferences and needs.

A mature account is one for which expected new money additions are minimal compared to the size of the accumulated assets — where replacement of lost assets is not a practical or feasible option.

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Portfolio

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Risk Management and Portfolio Optimization / Portfolio / Risk Analysis

By: Peter_Johansson

Stock analysis based on technical analysis or fundamental analysis is getting a lot of attention and often form the the basis for investment decisions. Many private investors combine perhaps 5-10 assets into a portfolio and let their intuition guide the allocate between the assets. How this allocation could be done in an optimal way, analytically, receives little attention in financial newspapers and marketing from financial institutes although it has a great significance for expected returns and portfolio risk.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Investors Lose Relying On Worthless Rating Agencies - Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's / Stock-Markets / Risk Analysis

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"The one sure way to prolong a depression is to resist it..." – Walter Lippmann, Sept. 1931

ISN'T MODERN LIFE MARVELLOUS? All risk has vanished, not least for high-risk behavior.

Hence Scott Anthony Gomez Jr., now suing the sheriff of Pueblo County in Colorado . Gomez was able to break out of his jail cell, push up a ceiling tile, and crawl to freedom through the ventilation shafts before slipping and falling 85 feet off the roof of his prison.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 08, 2007

Black Swans and Endogenous Uncertainty of the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Risk Analysis

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn this issue:

  • Ubiquity, Complexity Theory and Sandpiles
  • Fingers of Instability
  • A Stable Disequilibrium
  • General Equilibrium with Endogenous Uncertainty
  • Identity Theft and New York

How does the risk of default in California or Thailand get spread throughout the world, causing problem in money market funds in Europe and Florida? Yes, we can trace the linkages now, but was it possible to predict the crisis beforehand? And can we use what we learn to predict and hopefully hedge ourselves from the next crisis? Why do these things seem to be happening with more frequency? This week we are going to look at some economic theories which will give us some insight into the above questions. As it turns out, the more that individuals hedge their risk in economic markets - the larger the network - the more the entire system is put at risk. There is a lot of ground to cover, so we will jump right in.

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