Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Floating Dollar, Milton Friedman's Contraption / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_North
On March 12, David Stockman gave a lecture at the Mises Institute in Alabama. I was in attendance. It was a rousing speech, filled with funny one-liners. It reminded me of Patch Adams' listing of euphemisms for death in the hospital room of the guy with terminal cancer. It got us all laughing.
The speech had four important points. First, the Treasury-Federal Reserve bailout in October 2008 was not necessary to save the financial markets. It was necessary to save three or four finance companies that had cooked their books and were facing exposure, meaning write-downs.
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Sunday, March 20, 2011
U.S. Real Unemployment Rate 10.2%, Underemployment at 20% / Economics / Unemployment
By: Mike_Shedlock
I am very skeptical of BLS unemployment rates inching lower. Not only do the BLS reports discount millions of marginally attached and discouraged workers but BLS seasonal adjustments seem more than a bit unusual.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Japan Disaster, How Bad Will it Get? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Money_Morning
Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald has spent almost every summer for the past two decades at his family home in Kyoto - which is why he knows Japan in a way that few other U.S. traders could ever hope to.
As part of Money Morning's continued coverage of the disaster in Japan, Fitz-Gerald is sharing those insights with readers. Here are the highlights of a question-and-answer session we held with Fitz-Gerald late yesterday Thursday).
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Friday, March 18, 2011
U.S. Factory Production Maintains Upward Trajectory / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Industrial production declined 0.1% in February, reflecting a 4.5% drop in production at the nation's utilities and a 0.4% increase in factory production. Factory production accounts for the major part of the industrial production index.
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Friday, March 18, 2011
Food and Energy Send U.S. Consumer Prices Sharply Higher / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in February after posting increases of 0.4% in December and January. Significant food price gains in the January-February months and three consecutive monthly jumps in energy prices have been the main culprits behind the recent upward trend of the CPI. The CPI has risen 2.1% from a year ago, while the 3-month annualized increase is 5.6%.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Is U.S. Inflation Already at 9%? / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Rising prices are hitting U.S. consumers a lot harder than the U.S. Federal Reserve - or the U.S. government - would have us believe. The government-issued consumer price index (CPI) for January showed that "core inflation" - which includes prices for all items except food and energy - was up only 1% from the same month the year before.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Food and Energy Prices Lift U.S. Wholesale Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of Finished Goods rose 1.6% in February following a 0.8% gain in the prior month. A 3.9% increase in food prices and a 3.3% jump in energy prices explain a large part of the increase in the headline number. Higher prices for natural gas (+3.2%), gasoline (+3.7%) and heating oil (+14.6%) contributed for the noticeably higher energy price index. The February increase of food prices (+3.9%) is the largest since November 1974 (+4.2%).
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Does Economic Growth Cause Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Frank_Shostak
The yearly rate of growth of personal consumer outlays jumped from 2.5 percent in August last year to 3.8 percent this January.
The growth momentum of personal income has been pushing ahead strongly since May last year.
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011
China Ready to Pull the World Economy Out of the Doldrums? / Economics / China Economy
By: ECR_Research
Renate van Ginderen writes:
The role of China’s 12th Five-Year Plan
China’s twelfth Five-Year plan promises reform in all key areas of the economy. The plan will have to guide China between 2011 and 2016 towards a more sustainable, balanced, stable, and coordinated growth model. However, the problem is that it actually does not differ much from the eleventh Five-Year plan announced in 2006, whereas that plan did only do so much. The new real annual growth target is reduced from 7,5% to ‘just’ 7%: enormous in Western terms, but drastically lower than the 9,3% attained in 2010. So will this drag the economy down? Probably not. The growth target for the 11th Five-Year Plan has been overshoot largely. It is much more likely the central government will not really succeed in redirecting its economy, as will be discussed below.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Corporate Cash Stash Soars to $1.9 Trillion, Maybe Marx Was Right After All... / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Whitney
Two and a half years have passed since Lehman Brothers collapsed and US consumers are still digging out.
Last Thursday, the Fed released its “flow of funds” report which showed that households had trimmed their debt to $13.3 trillion in the forth quarter (4Q). But the crucial debt-to-income ratio remains significantly above trend at 120.9%. That means that consumers will have to cut their spending even more.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
FOMC Meeting 15th March: Fed More Bullish, Japan U.S. Trade Facts / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 0%-0.25%, as expected and indicated it would continue its quantitative easing program of $600 billion. There were no dissents at the meeting, despite disagreements among members about the quantitative easing program that is underway, as revealed in the minutes of the January meeting and subsequent speeches of Fed Presidents.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Economic Aftershocks of the Japan Earthquake / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
The 8.9 magnitude earthquake and resulting tsunami that hit northeastern Japan today (Friday) had an immediate impact on financial markets all over the world. However, the effects of the damage and rebuilding will reverberate through the Japanese economy for months, if not years.
Monday, March 14, 2011
A Good Looking Economy is Not Always a Good Economy / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
It is said that many look enviously upon the Australian economy's success in not only weathering the global financial crisis but to continue to prosper. Of course, there is no gainsaying the role that the resources sector played in providing the country with a vital economic buffer. But is everything as rosy as many seem to think, including some of our Treasury boffins?
Sunday, March 13, 2011
U.S. Economy on Steroids, Poverty Levels Equal to the 1930s / Economics / US Economy
By: Bob_Chapman
Wall Street at least temporarily relieved of the burden of having to buy Treasuries & Agency bonds, is looking at the jump in oil prices as nothing more than an irritant to their plans for a higher market. Bill Dudley of the NY Fed, a most powerful member, continues to make a vigorous defense of Federal Reserve policies. He, and a few other Fed participants, and Chairman Bernanke believe liquidity is the key for solving problems. That is not only in the realm of debt purchases, but in the relief it brings to Wall Street and banking. It relieves them of the responsibility of having to make those purchases to assist the Fed.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Inflation and Hyperinflation in the United States / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
A Dose of Inflation
The Characteristics of Hyperinflations
The Problems of Inflation
Hyperinflation in the United States?
Bankruptcies of governments have, on the whole, done less harm to mankind than their ability to raise loans. -- R. H. Tawney, Religion and the Rise of Capitalism, 1926
By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. -- John Maynard Keynes, Economic Consequences of Peace
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Friday, March 11, 2011
Higher Crude Oil Prices Pouring Profits into Venezuela's Economy / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
Libya turmoil continued this week as Col. Moammar Gadhafi's troops tried to chase rebel forces out of cities housing key oil facilities. The pro-government regime wants to regain cities with oil operations, many of which rebels took over in the first days of fighting.
Attacks Wednesday also destroyed one oil facility's diesel oil storage tank and pipeline. Shukri Ghanem, Libya's de facto oil minister and the chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp., said no major oil installations were damaged in the explosion, but the fighting has disrupted a number of oil and natural gas facilities around the country.
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Friday, March 11, 2011
U.S. Jobless Claims, Too Soon to Question if Decline Represents Reversal of Trend / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims rose 26,000 to 397,000 during the week ended March 5. The Labor Department noted that President's Day holiday in the prior week could have moved claims into the latest weekly count. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims offers an alternative in the event of temporary distortions.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 11, 2011
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in January / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit of the U.S. economy widened to $46.3 billion in January from $40.3 billion in the prior month. Exports of goods and services advanced 2.7% in January, while imports of goods and services also grew 5.2%. Imports of both petroleum (+3.7%) and non-petroleum products (+4.2%) items rose in January. If this trend continues in February and March, the trade deficit would cutback real GDP growth noticeably.
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Friday, March 11, 2011
U.S. Households Net Worth Advances, Outstanding Debt Declines / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Household net worth rose to $56.82 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2010, a 3.9% increase from the third quarter (or $2.1 trillion increase). Net worth of household has risen 16.6% from the first quarter of 2009 (the recent low, see Chart 1). Households lost 26% of their net worth between the second quarter of 2007 and first quarter of 2009, the largest loss in the post-war period. In the fourth quarter, households experienced gains in equity holdings that more than offset the loss from real estate.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Free Trade Theory Known to be Wrong—Since 1817! / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
The economic argument for free trade is ultimately based on the theory of comparative advantage, invented by David Ricardo in 1817. Ricardo was a London stockbroker, self-made millionaire, and Member of Parliament who became a self-taught economist.