Category: Stock Market 2021
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, February 22, 2021
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Ricky_Wen
Wednesday’s session was more of the same as it was another expected consolidation. If you recall, it was only day #2 of the pattern so patience Is needed given the past 2 weeks’ V-shape performance totaling +8% from the 3650s low to the 3950s high on the Emini S&P 500 (ES).
Today should be an pivotal session given that both sides are trying to win the battle here. Bulls are trying to stabilize a temporary low so the train can finalize a route towards new all time highs again. Bears are trying to break below last week’s low and below the trending daily 20EMA to cause a derailment.
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Sunday, February 21, 2021
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
Yesterday‘s bearish price action in stocks was the kind of shallow, largely sideways correction I was looking for. Not too enthusiastic follow through – just rocking the boat while the S&P 500 bull run goes on. Stocks are likely to run quite higher before meeting a serious correction.
As I argued in yesterday‘s detailed analysis of the Fed policies, their current stance won‘t bring stocks down. But it‘s taking down long-term Treasuries, exerting pressure on the dollar (top in the making called previous Monday), and fuelling commodities – albeit at very differnt pace. The divergencies I have described yesterday, center on weak gold performance – not gaining traction through the monetary inflation, instead trading way closer in sympathy with Treasury prices.
Gold has frontrunned the other commodities through the corona deflationary shock, and appears waiting for more signs of inflation. It didn‘t make a final top in Aug 2020, and a new bear market didn‘t start. It‘s my opinion that thanks to the jittery Treasury markets, we‘re seeing these dislocations, and that once the Fed focuses on the long end of the curve in earnest, that would remove the albatross from gold‘s back.
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Saturday, February 20, 2021
Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
The stock bears finally showed they aren‘t an extinct species – merely a seriously endangered one. Yesterday‘s close though gives them a chance to try again today, but they should be tame in expectations. While there is some chart deterioration, it‘s not nearly enough to help fuel a full on bearish onslaught in the S&P 500. There is no serious correction starting now, nothing to really take down stocks seriously for the time being.
The Fed remains active, and monetary policy hasn‘t lost its charm (effect) just yet. Commodities and asset price inflation has been in high gear for quite some time, yet it‘s not a raging problem for the Main Street as evidenced by the CPI. Food price inflation, substitution and hedonistic adjustments in its calculation, are a different cup of tea, but CPI isn‘t biting yet.
Meanwhile, the real economy recovery goes on (just check yesterday‘s Empire State Manufacturing figures for proof), even without the $1.9T stimulus and infrastructure plans. Once we see signs of strain in the job market (higher participation rate, hourly earnings and hours worked), then the real, palpable inflation story can unfold. But we‘re talking 2022, or even 2023 to get there – and the Fed will just let it overshoot to compensate for the current and prior era.
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Friday, February 19, 2021
The Stock Market Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has continued to confound all of the doom merchants out there who blindly continue to point to the worst economic contraction since the great depression if not in history for most western economies. All whilst the Dow pushed its way to a new all time high into the end of 2020 and has continued to march ever higher during 2021 in response to which most investors have faced a barrage of that messages that the bubble is always about to burst, whilst my Patrons have received an unequivocal consistent message that this bull market has a long ways to go and that investors should not look a gift horse in the mouth when all of the stocks on my AI list were typically marked down by over 1/3rd against their Pre pandemic trading levels during March 2020.
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Friday, February 19, 2021
Stock Market March Melt-Up Madness / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
March Madness is a term referring to the college basketball single-elimination tournament of 68 teams, leading up to the “Final Four,” from which the ultimate college basketball champion is determined. Most of the games take place during the last half of March, with the ultimate winner determined in early April.
But, I am seeing potential for a March Madness setup in the equity market as well.
While analyst and investor alike have been scratching their heads at the amazing market rally, we have seen since we struck the low back in March, I think many will be surprised at the next phase of the rally, which may actually be one of the strongest.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
Why This "Excellent" Stock Market Indicator Should Be on Your Radar Screen Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"No crowd buys stocks of other countries intelligently"Elliott Wave International's 25+ analysts regularly review more than 100+ market indicators to keep subscribers ahead of major turns.
Many of those are "technical" indicators. Others are "sentiment" related.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2021
Stock Market Trend Forecasts Analysis Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has continued to confound all of the doom merchants out there who blindly continue to point to the worst economic contraction since the great depression if not in history for most western economies. All whilst the Dow pushed its way to a new all time high into the end of 2020 and has continued to march ever higher during 2021 in response to which most investors have faced a barrage of that messages that the bubble is always about to burst, whilst my Patrons have received an unequivocal consistent message that this bull market has a long ways to go and that investors should not look a gift horse in the mouth when all of the stocks on my AI list were typically marked down by over 1/3rd against their Pre pandemic trading levels during March 2020.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2021
First year of a Stocks bull market, or End of a Bubble? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Troy_Bombardia
This bull market is unique because unlike past bull markets, this one began with extreme speculation. Historically, extreme speculation occurred at the end of multi-year bull markets. This is why the markets are currently exhibiting extremely bullish signs (e.g. breadth today is similar to what you see at the start of multi-year bull markets) and extremely bearish signs (e.g. speculation today is similar to what you see at the end of multi-year bull markets). How do we reconcile these two opposites?
Let’s take a look at some bullish & bearish factors:
Subsiding volatility
VIX closed below 20 for the first time in almost a year. The past year was a nervous one for markets: stocks rallied, but investors and traders were consistently on edge.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2021
S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
Stocks are clinging to the 3,900 level, and the bulls aren‘t yielding. Without much fanfare, both the sentiment readings and put/call ratio are at the greed and compacent end of the spectrum again. How long can it last, and what shape the upcoming correction would have? Right now, the warning signs are mounting, yet the bears shouldn‘t put all their eggs into the correction basket really, for it shapes to be a shallow one – one in time, rather than in price.
Gold‘s hardship is another cup of tea, standing in stark comparison to how well silver and platinum are doing. At the same time, the dollar hasn‘t really moved to the upside – there is no dollar breakout. If the greenback were to break to the upside, that would mean a dollar bull market, which I don't view as a proposition fittingly describing the reality – I called the topping dollar earlier this week. The world reserve currency will remain on the defensive this year, and we saw not a retest, but a local top.
This has powerful implications for the precious metals, where the only question is whether we get a weak corrective move to the downside still, or whether we can base in a narrow range, followed by another upleg (think spring). February isn't the strongest month for precious metals seasonally, true, but it isn't a disaster either. As has been the case throughout the week, I‘ll update and present the evidence of internal sectoral strength also today.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2021
Stock Market Last pull-back before intermediate top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: May continue until SPX reaches ~4150 (March 2021).
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
Feeling the Growing Heat and Tensions in Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
Yesterday was a prelude, a little preview of things to come. We better get used to brief and shallow corrections again, after being lulled by the many preceding sessions. It appears that we‘re now going to get the consolidation period even as the overall S&P 500 metrics remain in a healthy territory.
This is the (print-and-spend-happy) world we live in, and we better not fixate on the premature bubble pop talk too closely. I have been stating repeatedly that things have to get really ridiculous first, and this doesn‘t qualify yet in my view. So, for all the tech bashers, we‘re going higher – like it or not.
Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
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Saturday, February 13, 2021
US Economic Data Tempers Expectations on the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Snapshot of the US Economy: Movers and Shakers
The performance of the US economy at any point in time is predicated on a series of economic indicators. Several important metrics must be assessed to gain a better understanding of US equities markets, and the economy at large.
Chief among them are the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, the inflation rate, and interest rate. As it stands, theGDP growth rate is currently at 4%, the unemployment rate is at 6.3%, NFP data is at 49, and the January 2021 inflation rate remains unchanged at 1.4% (same as December 2020).
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Thursday, February 11, 2021
Millennials Will Propel Stocks Higher For Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
A message board destroys a top Wall Street hedge fund. You’ve surely heard about the WallStreetBets/GameStop saga by now. Many investors see it as a sign markets are headed for a crash.
In fact, Google searches for “stock market bubble” just hit the highest level ever. And a new E-Trade survey found two-thirds of investors think the market is in a bubble.
What if I told you this is the start of a megatrend that will propel disruptor stocks higher for years? As I’ll show you today, this story runs much deeper than a bunch of average Joes crushing the pros.
I think it’s jet fuel that will propel the stock market higher for a long time. And it all has to do with today’s generation of young adults, aka “millennials.”
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Thursday, February 11, 2021
What Are the Top Stocks to Watch in February? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Stimulus + Stimulus = Robust Recovery in the Stock Market
With 2020 behind us, 2021 is shaping up to be a better year for the financial markets. Trader and investor optimism have strengthened, across most markets, including Emerging Markets, the Eurozone, and the United States. The ravages of a short-lived bear market were devastating, but the bulls are stomping their hooves.
This year, markets are expected to rebound on the back of several key elements, notably mass vaccinations of the global populace, multiple government stimulus efforts, and the development of a robust new-age, digital economy. All of these factors are coalescing to create new economic opportunities for growth.
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Tuesday, February 09, 2021
Stock Market S&P 500 Continues To Climb, See What Sectors Are Set to Climb Even Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
While you may not have been paying attention, some of the strongest sectors are already showing great strength and setting up for new breakout rallies. Over the past 30+ days, sector trends have rotated as the market volatility has increased. Right now, we are seeing strength in some of the same sectors that were leading the markets 60+ days ago: Discretionary, Comm Services, Technology, Energy, Financials, and Real Estate. If you are not paying attention to these trends, you may miss some of the best assets to trade given big sector ETF moves we’ve seen in early 2021.
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Monday, February 08, 2021
Mid-Caps & Transportation Show Upside Targets For Next Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
An important technical conclusion stemming from the recent volatility spike is that prices must continue to push higher, above previous highs, in order to confirm the continued upside price expectations. The recent volatility spike and downside rotation in the US major stock market were big enough to reset many trending systems and prompt new upside price targets. In this research article, I will share our targets on the Mid-Caps and the Transportation ETFs to show you want we expect from the potential rally.
IWM Breakout Above $218.35 Suggests Rally Is Just Starting
The IWM, the Ishares Russell 2000 ETF, Daily chart highlights the recent rotation in price and shows a Fibonacci price extension range from the late December 2020 lows to the recent late January 2021 highs. I use these Fibonacci price extensions as a means of measuring potential upside or downside price targets, which seem to be fairly accurate. Watching what happens near the 61.8% level on the chart will guide us in determining if the 100% target level will be reached quickly or after a bit of consolidation.
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Monday, February 08, 2021
When Will the Stock Market Party End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Michael_Pento
I’d like to explain why these already-stretched markets could crash by the start of the 3rd quarter. I’ve been warning over the past month, or about, that my Inflation/Deflation and Economic Cycle Model SM is forecasting a potential crash in equities around the start of Q3 this year. Of course, this timing could change and I would only take action in the portfolio if the Model validates this forecast to be correct. Nevertheless, here’s why the bubble we are currently riding higher in the portfolio could burst around that time.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
Stock Market Bears Losing The Battle / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Ricky_Wen
Monday's action retraced all losses from Friday as the Emini S&P 500 (ES) formed a double bottom during Sunday night at 3650 key level. The next two sessions will be pivotal in confirming whether it's risk on again or whether we need to wait a bit. Right now, bears are losing the battle before price action is back to neutral mode given the V-shape recovery into 61.8-78.6% retracement of the 3860s-3650s range.
The main takeaway is that this is healthy consolidation in the bigger picture because it allows the market to reset and take out some novices and shake the tree a bit. It clears out the newish traders that keep on buying calls and getting paid easily for the past few months. It ain’t gonna be as easy and simple as that going forward. At least not until price action confirms the stabilization/higher lows. During Sunday night, the market held the 3650s and formed a temporary double bottom setup. This was no surprise because we’ve been saying the 3650 area has been a key level for the past few weeks. It is the confluence of the January monthly lows.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
Did GameStop Mark the Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
“You do stocks, huh? I’m thinking about ploughing a few grand into GameStop. That thing’s going to the moon, bro!”
The guy on the treadmill next to me was clearly excited. Then he told me all about another opportunity as he wiped sweat off his face.
“The next Tesla,” he said, grinning from ear to ear. And he wasn’t the only one. I had at least four conversations about stocks at my local gym last week. (It’s not exactly a hotbed of investors. In fact, I’ve never talked about stocks there until recently).
Another guy told me he bought $5,000 worth of Royal Caribbean Cruises. Why? It “went down a lot.” And he thinks it’s a “lock” to bounce back.
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Wednesday, February 03, 2021
Why Next Wave of Margin Calls Will Be FAR More "Disruptive" Than in 2000 or 2007 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"Can investors afford to borrow anymore?"
Financial history shows that every bear market has been followed by a bull market and vice versa.
So, the current bull market will end sooner or later.
The prior two bull market tops occurred in the years 2007 and 2000. One of the characteristics of each of those tops was investors' ramped up use of margin. In other words, market participants were borrowing heavily to buy stocks.
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