Category: Stock Markets 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, March 07, 2019
What Commodities and Transportation Stocks Telling Us - Part2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In Part I of this report we talked about and showed you what commodities and transports where doing in relation to each other. Here in Part II, we show you in detail what we expect to take place.
This final chart highlights our Custom Smart Cash Index (in BLUE) as well as the CBOE Commodity Index pricing levels (in RED). This data goes all the way back to 2012 and highlights a number of key pricing rotations. First, we can see that Commodities have been decreasing in total value from 2012 till mid-2017. We can also identify a key support level that was established in the Commodities Index near the beginning of 2016 – coinciding just a month or so before the bottom in the Smart Cash Index.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 07, 2019
Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
It’s been almost 10 years since this bull market began. What an incredible run. Despite all the doom-and-gloom news reports, this bull market has been impressive. (And no, it’s not because of “evil government manipulation”).
To put this into perspective, someone who bought at the top in 2007 would still have doubled their money (after including dividends reinvested).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 06, 2019
US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as an except from my last in depth look at stocks illustrates:
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018
The basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year.
The trend to date is clearly continuing to prove remarkably inline with the US presidential cycle. Which does not bode well for the remainder of the 2018 i.e. implies stocks are going to remain stuck in this trading range for the WHOLE of 2018! Which is one of the reasons why I was bearish for the prospects for the stock market at the start of the year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 06, 2019
Stock Market’s Rally Slowing Down. Expect a Surge in Volatility? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market’s nonstop rally is slowing down, with the S&P 500 below its 10 day moving average for the first time in 41 days. The short-medium term outlook is mixed right now, with neither bulls nor bears having a strong edge (although there is a slight short term bearish lean). Meanwhile, there’s a >50% probability that volatility will spike in the next few weeks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 06, 2019
Stock Market Beware The Ides Of March / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
While there is some religious significance in Roman culture, the Ides of March is best known as the date on which Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44 BC at a meeting of the Roman Senate.
At the time, a seer named Plutarch (some claim that the seer was named Spurinna) had warned that something would happen to Caesar by that date. For those that know their Shakespeare, on his way to the Theatre of Pompey, where he would be assassinated, Caesar supposedly passes the seer and joked “The Ideas of March are come,” implying that the prophecy had not been fulfilled, to which the seer replied “Aye, Caesar; but not gone.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 05, 2019
What Commodities and Transportation Stocks Are Telling Us / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our ongoing efforts to dissect these markets and to help educated and inform traders has led us on an exploration path into the general market activities of two leading market indicators; Commodity prices and Transportation Prices. These two core elements of any regional or global economy are usually about 3~6 months ahead of the general markets. When viewing the Transportation Index, remember that transportation is key to any growing economy and a healthy economy. When an economy is doing well, the transportation sector will be busy shipping and delivering consumer product and staples as well as manufacturing equipment and supplies. When viewing the Commodity Index, remember the Supply and Demand equation where greater demand for commodities needed to manufacture, create, deliver or sell a product will drive prices higher as supply remains relatively constant, prices will increase.
Therefore, the theory of today’s research post is “are Transportation and Commodity prices telling us anything important about the future stock market valuations?”. Let’s get into the research.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 04, 2019
SPX: New All-Time Highs or Bust? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In my article last weekend, "Another Fibonacci Price and Time Intersection Approaches Heading into a Week Fraught with Headline Uncertainty," I discussed the importance of the intersecting time (Mon Feb 25) and price (2803.50 1% on the S&P 500) as a potential resistance area and reversal zone.
I noted that on Mon Feb 25, the rally from the Dec 26 low would equal 62% of the time spent in the Sep-Dec correction. And that the level of 2803.50 ( 1% = 2775 to 2832) represented the Fibonacci 76.4% recovery of the entire September-December decline.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 04, 2019
NASDAQ and DOW – Two Spectrum’s of the Stock Market / Politics / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers believe the NQ and YM chart illustrates a very different dynamic which is currently at play in the US Stock Markets. The NQ, the Technology heavy NASDAQ futures, appears to have stalled near the 75% Fibonacci price retracement level whereas the YM, the Blue Chip heavy DOW futures, has already rallied past this level and is setting up a “double top” formation near 26268. It is our belief that the US Stock Markets are already nearing an intermediate top rotation price area and that traders need to actively protect their long trades/profits right away. We believe a downside price rotation may take place very quickly over the next 5~10+ days and that the markets may rotate downward by a minimum of 4~6% in what we are calling a “momentum rotation setup”.
Monday, March 04, 2019
Elliott Wave Analysis of the OEX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: WavePatternTraders
Short term whilst it remains above 1220 the current trend remains up. There a few short term ideas I am watching, but if a new high is seen, then it can suggest the end to wave [v] of an impulse wave (5 wave rally) to end wave C of a larger zigzag correction (3 wave advance) from the Dec 2018 low.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 04, 2019
Stock Market Trade Optimism Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – Initial rally is likely coming to an end.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Friday, March 01, 2019
Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market soared has soared since the start of 2019, this despite President Trump shutting much of the US government down for 5 weeks accompanied by increasing global economic doom and gloom from a slowdown in China, to Germany teetering on the brink of recession a with Italy already having tipped into recession. And if that were not bad enough we have the train wreck that is BrExit, not the decision to LEAVE the European Union but rather the failure of the UK government / Parliament to implement BrExit in a competent manner, far from it, Parliament has been paralysed with the UK government look set to beg the EU for an extension to Article 50. Nevertheless the major stock indices such as the Dow and the FTSE have SOARED! Confounding not just the usual perma doom merchants out there but much of the mainstream press because most of that which the press peddles has been BAD NEWS!
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 28, 2019
More Short-Term Stock Market Uncertainty as Investors Await Economic Data Releases / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were mixed again on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index continues to trade at the 2,800 resistance level. So is this a topping pattern or just a pause before another leg up?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.1% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Monday. It got closer to the previous local highs along the 2,800 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% yesterday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,800-2,820, marked by the previous medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is now at around 2,765-2,780, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at the previous Friday's daily gap up of 2,757.90-2,760.24.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
The Next Big Stock Market Indicator: Unemployment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
I’m always on the lookout for leading indicators that can give us an edge over erratic, irrational markets.There are a lot of them.
Some are complicated, like the popular composite index from the Conference Board. It includes average weekly hours by manufacturing workers, initial applications for unemployment, new manufacturing orders for consumer goods, speed of delivery from suppliers to vendors, new orders for capital goods, new residential building permits, S&P 500 stock index, inflation-adjusted money supply (M2), spread between long- and short-term rates, and consumer sentiment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Stock Market Beware of Confirmation Bias / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
Albert Einstein once said: “Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions."
To Mr. Einstein, it was quite clear that people have their biases, and it is extremely rare that they are able to disassociate themselves from those biases, if ever. It is for this reason that investor seek out analysts who provide support to their pre-determined biases. We call this bias confirmation. And, almost every investor you speak to is afflicted with this condition.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Slowing Stock Market Rally, What's Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
For the first time since the stock market’s bottom in December 2018, the S&P has closed in the bottom 1/3 of its daily range for 2 consecutive days. In other words, the stock market’s rally is slowing down.
Meanwhile, the housing market continues to deteriorate. Housing is a key leading indicator for the economy and stock market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Stock Traders Must Stay Optimistic – The End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This, the final segment of our multi-part research post regarding the potential future market direction as well as to identify if there is any real concern for traders regarding a “total market collapse” as some Doomsayers are predicting should help you understand what our researchers believe is the most likely outcome. In the previous segments of this research post, we’ve covered everything from the globalization of markets and economies to key elements of core pricing levels and valuation levels of economies, equities markets and more. The data is out there if you know where to find it and how to read it. All one has to do is step back from the shorter term charts and see the bigger picture for a bit.
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
This is the Stock Market’s Biggest 2 month Rally Since 2009. What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
It has been exactly 2 months since the stock market’s bottom on Christmas Eve 2018. Since then, the S&P has rallied more than 18%, which makes this one of the biggest 2 month rallies of all time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Federal Reserve Colludes With Banks To Drive Up Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
Insider trading occurs when someone makes money investing in a public market with knowledge unavailable to the public. Martha Stewart was jailed for such activity or more specifically, lying about insider trading.
Insider trading is a charge reserved for little people. The swamp protects its own.
Insider trading was even perfectly legal for our members of Congress until just a few years ago. Speaker of the House Pelosi is known to have made a tidy fortune with such privilege. For instance, when Visa announced an IPO, Ms. Pelosi bought in. Is she a great investor? Hardly. There was legislation in the House that would have added regulations to credit card companies like Visa but Ms. Pelosi made sure that legislation never made it to the voting floor. Imagine, a proposed government regulation that Pelosi did NOT agree with. I wonder why? Visa IPO’d and burst higher enriching Ms. Pelosi. Today, the same speaker calls for a ‘moral economy’. Really?
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2019
S&P 500 Gets Closer to 2,800, Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
The broad stock market slightly extended its short-term uptrend on Friday following breaking above the recent consolidation. But will stocks continue higher despite some clear technical overbought conditions?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.6-0.9% on Friday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2%. It got closer to the previous local highs along the 2,800 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,800, marked by the previous medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,765-2,780, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at the previous Friday's daily gap up of 2,757.90-2,760.24.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2019
Stock Traders Must Stay Optimistic – Part 4 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Welcome to Part IV of our multi-part research post delving into the global markets, global opportunities and the current “revaluation” even that is taking place. We started this quest from a simple question, “are the Doomsayers correct in their analysis that the US and global markets would collapse in a spectacular form in the near future?”. We wanted to dig into this in more detail to prove they were right or to prove our analysis was correct and the markets are simply “re-balancing” in the process of developing greater opportunity.
So far, we’ve covered topics related to globalization, central banks, global GDP and capital asset deployment forms. We’ve highlighted how the transition from regional economies into global inter-connected economies is now nearly complete and we’ve highlighted how we believe a collapse event could only take place if the largest global economies were to experience some type of massive crisis event. Unless these types of massive crisis events unfold, the most likely outcome is what we have been proposing all along – a re-balancing/revaluation event cycle that is preparing current market valuations for a momentum breakout rally in the future.
Read full article... Read full article...