Category: AI
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, March 29, 2023
Will ChatGPT Kill College? / Personal_Finance / AI
By: Stephen_McBride
A message from a reader… The new ChatGPT just came out… Will it be the nail in the coffin for thousands of colleges across America?
- At least with healthcare, you get something for your money. College, on the other hand...
A reader wrote me after I called healthcare “America’s most broken industry.”
He said that title should go to our education system.
Monday, December 19, 2022
AI Tech Stocks TRAVELLING THROUGH TIME AT AN EXPONENTIAL RATE! / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Many analysts refer to what happened decades ago to try and imply to expect similar today, what is it that they are blind to that ensures the past is not a good measure of the future? What they miss is the exponential nature of the trend we are upon! We are RACING THROUGH TIME AT AN ACCLERATING PACE! What not so long ago took decades now has been compressed into years! What not so long ago took years now takes months! That is the exponential AI mega-trend in a nutshell and it is ACCELERATING! Go back a thousand years and nothing much change for most folks for centuries! Go back 100 years and the changes would be measured in terms of decades! Go back 50 years and changes were measured in years! Today the pace of change is in the months! And yes it will become in the weeks! So how are we to capitalise on this exponential trend? By investing in the stocks that are making the trend become manifest, holding on with both hands as they whip through time at an exponential rate, clinging on as we watch those who SELL fall behind waiting for a dip to get back on board.
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Wednesday, June 29, 2022
AI Tech Stock PORTFOLIO NAME OF THE GAME / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What's the name of the game?
Answer - To gain exposure to the Quantum AI tech stocks that are on an exponential trend trajectory. That is the name of the game, where today's 50% deviations form the highs in the likes of Nvidia and AMD will become invisible blips on the long-term charts in a few short years time. Though how many investors will be able to hold on for the big pay off? I suspect not many given that today's platforms induce a trader mindset in investors which is how the platforms have been designed to drum up lots of small commissions be it IKBR's 35 cents per trade or Free Trades 0.45% F/X fee. So I know what's going to happen after stocks have bottomed and start to rocket higher say by 30% to 50% many will start asking is it now time to sell? As they think they will be able to trade in and out of corrections.
Last year I made the mistake of selling too much! Selling 80% of my holdings was too much, yes a bear market was highly probable but one does not know for sure until it actually materialises and to what degree. Back when Nvidia was flying high as a kite above $300, writing that I expected it to fall to below $200 and possibly as low as $140 does not mean it was definitely going to happen until it actually happens!
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Sunday, April 03, 2022
NVIDIA is ARMless - To Buy or Not to Buy, that is the Question / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As suspected failure for the ARM deal to go through is about to become manifest and was expected to trigger a sell off buying opportunity, Though Nvidia IS firing on all cylinders, it's just that as has been the case for the whole of 2021, NVIDIA IS OVER VALUED! My exposure stands at 9.6% of target (0.5% of portfolio) which is actually down on last week as I took profits given that I do expect Nvidia to be one of the stocks to take a tumble to fresh lows. It is hard to believe that the stock can trade below it's recent low of $209, after all that WAS my target draw down for the stock! So it may yet turn out to be THE LOW, after all the bounce back from $209 was quite powerful, i.e. lots of buy the dippers stepping in. Nvidia is a tough stock to buy, because it is a FANTASTIC CORPORATION that trades at a too high a valuation. Which means no matter what price I pay for Nvidia in hindsight it will probably prove to VERY HIGH! It's one of those things where you know how good a corporation is and one is desperate to expand ones exposure to but you also know its DAMN expensive, especially when we look at where Facebook is trading right now i.e. on a valuations that's less than 1/4 that of Nvidia! Is Nvidia worth 4 TIMES as much as Facebook? Seriously? And this is why despite Nvidia's price plunge to date I see a lot more potential downside for this stock. Maybe I should just do the same as for Apple? I.e. buy to just 1% of portfolio and then hold fire for much, much lower prices IF they materialise great, if not then at some point I would have to bite the bullet and buy Nvidia for something like $265 a share!
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Wednesday, February 02, 2022
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels and Limit Orders for Buying the Panic! / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A reminder that my plan is to capitalise on a valuation reset in the over valued tech giants as they are one by one marked lower by at least 20% from their bull highs as we recently enjoyed with Facebook down to $300, with Nvidia and AMD already along their path towards triggering buying opportunities and the likes of Microsoft and Apple to soon follow suit.
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Monday, January 17, 2022
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Firstly never forget that the AI Mega-trend is NOT LINEAR BUT EXPONENTIAL where the pandemic has only acted to to accelerate the mega-trend a notch higher. For instance GPT3 (which Microsoft owns) implies autonomous humanoid robots that people can have actual conversations with are just around the corner, we will probably see mass business if not retail consumer devices (robots) within the next FOUR YEARS!
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Sunday, January 09, 2022
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
IBM is another sleeping tech giant that the so called the analysts are clueless about.
What comes to mind when you think of IBM ?
It's stock price chart ?
Logo?
What comes to my mind is a quantum computer and then the 2001 Space Oddessy movie Monolith. If you have not watched the movie then watch it even though it is over 50 years old.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Current State / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of the AI stocks portfolio this means I am scrapping small nearby limit orders I had for Apple,. Microsoft, AVGO, and LMT, and replacing with more distant limit order, for instance I would be buying significant exposure to LMT at around $300 rather than at my just scrapped limit order of $326. Similarly I amended my LIMIT order to buy more INTEL from $47 to $44 and and IBM from $115 to $108. Though I would not be surprised if both Intel and IBM ROSE whilst the rest of the market fell, hence why I am content to already be mostly fully invested in Intel and IBM.
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Monday, January 03, 2022
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones Part 2 of 2 / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Happy Near Year!
This is the concluding part two of my extensive analysis on the state of the AI tech stocks highlighting several stocks trading at bargain basement levels despite the FOMO rally in the face of the countdown to Financial Crisis 2.0 during 2022.
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Wednesday, December 22, 2021
TSMC and Microsoft AI Tech Stocks Analysis / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TSMC $117
PE 29.9, has been stuck in a tight trading range for virtually the whole of 2021 at between $125 and $108. Therefore I am raising the buying level to an achievable $109.5.
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Tuesday, December 21, 2021
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones as Financial Crisis 2.0 Continues Brewing / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
- China housing market in distress - CHECK
- China's economy slowing - CHECK
- US Economy slowing - CHECK
- Brewing STAGFLATION - Slowing economy coupled with rising prices - CHECK
- Black Swan Event - Crisis at the ports - CHECK
- Economic Models busted - Workers refusing to return to work not factored into Economic models - CHECK
- REVERSE REPO MARKET - Banks desperate to swap deposit liabilities for T-bills collateral so as to lower capital requirements which has drained the capital markets of over $1 trillion - CHECK
- STOCK MARKET BUBBLE - Valuations have lost touch with reality - CHECK
- FED TAPERING into a Weakening Economy - Huge Risk of a valuation reset - CHECK
- IMPEMDING DOOM! - The relentless march of the Climate Change Mega-trend where all that the worlds leaders did at COP26 was Blah Blah Blah - CHECK!
So yes, Financial Crisis 2.0 continues to brew in the background and will likely come knocking on many investor portfolio door's during 2022 so don't be so eager to FOMO into stocks today to later wish one had missed out on the preceding 6-8 months of price action by Mid 2022. Where whatever one buys and holds today needs to factor in a potential for lower lows than what we saw in October and for some a lot lower lows than that! If one is happy with that then continue to FOMO all the way to new all time highs, for the time being.
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Thursday, November 04, 2021
Artificial Intelligence Could Solve This $11 Trillion Problem / Companies / AI
By: Submissions
The $11-trillion healthcare industry is going fully digital, disrupting industry giants & government monopolies, and finally giving the power back to the people.
That means no more googling of symptoms for a panic-driven self-diagnosis… where a spot on the skin can turn into a rare fatal disease, or an upset stomach into Stage IV cancer.
The digital revolution in healthcare is about far more than simply scheduling an appointment with a clinic through an app …
It’s about empowering the individual to take control of their health.
It won’t be Google that leads this revolution. And it most certainly won’t be Cortana or Alexa.
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Thursday, October 28, 2021
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Current State / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AI Stocks Buying Pressure Evaluation
Its now over 6 weeks since I first posted the AI generated forecasts where I deemed the resulting Buying Pressure as being the most important derived indicator for what the stocks are likely to do. For instance Facebook and AMD were expected to be the strongest, and not far behind Microsoft, Apple, Google, where Nvidia strength was contrary to my expectations for this over valued stock. Basically the AI was saying that I had a mistake mistake by selling out of Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia etc. The only decision it was concurring with was that Amazon was expected to be weak with only 17% upwards buying pressure, as was Samsung at 34%. and IBM on 26%. Whilst an unloved Intel continued to carry huge unrealised potential hence my seeking to accumulate more on any dips below $50.
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Wednesday, September 15, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far all attempts to predict the Dow via machine learning have failed, as mentioned above feeding nets with obvious data such as open, close, high, low and then a candle chart version does not work. In fact the neural net part is the easy part via the likes of Tensor Flow. The problem is with the data which as I explained earlier needs to be preprocessed i.e. feeding raw data into the networks as inputs ends up with noisy networks, if it did work then it would be easy to successfully train neural nets and they would be widespread instead as far as I am aware there aren't really any neural nets out there that can successfully trade stocks.
So what does preprocessing actually mean?
There are 2 ways to go about preprocessing data for stock market forecasts.
1. Pattern recognition
2. Trend Analysis preprocessing.
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Saturday, August 28, 2021
AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024 / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This analysis is focused on my continuing journey to gradually off load my stock analysis processing power onto neural nets where this net attempts to forecast the value of AI stocks 3 years out based on my EC indicator resulting in a upwards pressure under the stock price indicator.
This article is an excerpt form my recent in-depth analysis : AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024, Time to Buy Chinese Tech Stocks?
Contents:
- AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF).
- How I Use ASVF6 - Percent Upwards Pressure (PUP)
- AI Stocks Buying Levels Plus ASVF & PUP
- AI Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets
- Pattern Recognition
- Trend Analysis Preprocessing
- Crossing the Rubicon With These Three High Risk Tech Stocks
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 1
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 2
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 3
- CME Black Swan
Friday, August 27, 2021
AI Neural Net Predicts Facebook, AMD, and Nvidia Stock Prices Three Years Ahead / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here my neural net stock price forecaster predicts where Amazon, Microsoft and Apple stock prices will be trading in 3 years time. For an expiation of the forecaster see AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF) as excerpted form my recent extensive analysis -
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Tuesday, August 24, 2021
AI Neural Net Predicts Amazon, Microsoft and Apple Stock Prices Three Years Ahead / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here my neural net stock price forecaster predicts where Amazon, Microsoft and Apple stock prices will be trading in 3 years time. For an expiation of the forecaster see AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF) as excerpted form my recent extensive analysis -
AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024, Time to Buy Chinese Tech Stocks?
Contents:
- AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF).
- How I Use ASVF6 - Percent Upwards Pressure (PUP)
- AI Stocks Buying Levels Plus ASVF & PUP
- AI Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets
- Pattern Recognition
- Trend Analysis Preprocessing
- Crossing the Rubicon With These Three High Risk Tech Stocks
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 1
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 2
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 3
- CME Black Swan
Friday, June 18, 2021
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations Video / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here is my updated AI stocks table with buying levels to capitalise upon during the anticipated stock market correction. In terms of overall valuations the portfolio is a little more expensive today than at my last update with some individual stocks very overbought so should be primed for a correction during May as I first flagged to expect in my analysis of 9th of Feb.
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Thursday, June 17, 2021
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 3 of my recent extensive analysis focused on updated buying levels for my AI tech stocks portfolio going into the summer stock market correction, of what I will be looking to accumulate at what price levels.
Part 1 covered Tesla, ARK Funds and more - TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS!
Part 2 covered The Top 5 AI stocks trend analysis - Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations
Whilst the whole of this extensive analysis AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
Contents:
- TESLA
- Cathy Wood ARK Funds CRASH!
- India Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh
- Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019!
- Stock Market Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast
- Stocks Expensive or Cheap Indicator (EC)
- AI Stock Buy % Rating Review
- 1. GOOGLE - $2398
- 2. AMAZON - $3312
- 3. MICROSOFT - $252.5
- 4. APPLE - $130
- 5. FACEBOOK - $320
- 6. NVIDIA - $592.5
- 7. AMD - $78.8
- 11. IBM - $145.5
- 12. INTEL - $57.7
- AI Stocks Buying Levels Update May 2021
- So what am I going to do
- GPU Mining FREE MONEY!
- CHIA Crypto Farming with Your Hard Drives Insanity!
Monday, June 14, 2021
AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness - Why Selling Google or Facebook is a Big Mistake! / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market corrections are useful in gauging what is going on under the hood of corporations long before any information makes it into the public arena. For instance looking at the relative strength of the top 5 AI stocks shows Google and Facebook showing relative strength, whilst Apple and Amazon are showing relative weakness with Microsoft in the middle. What this is saying is that one should definitely NOT make the mistake of Selling Google or Facebook! Whilst as expected in my last AI stocks update Apple and Amazon are looking tired and so are unlikely to start galloping higher any time soon and thus set to under perform for some time. whilst Microsoft is doing its own thing somewhere in the middle.
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