Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, March 28, 2011
Brazil's Housing Carnival Stokes Bubble Worries / Housing-Market / Brazil
Are we in the early to mid stages of a bubble forming in Brazilian real estate? Who can tell - with the global liquidity tsunami gushing in every direction, there has to be other areas other than commodities where dislocations are forming. I found this interesting piece while looking over the news for Brazilian homebuilder Gafisa (GFA). While the "mass" mortgage market is still relatively new in Brazil - hence a whole slew of new potential buyers can now enter the market - some of the anecdotes in this Reuters story are eerily similar to those in the U.S. circa 2005.
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Sunday, March 27, 2011
Economic Depression in America: U.S. Housing Markets Double Dip / Housing-Market / US Housing
The housing market is now in full retreat. This week, the Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes plunged nearly 17 percent in February to a 250,000 annual pace. That's a record low. At the same time, the median price fell 8.9 percent from February of last year. The news comes on the heels of Monday's equally-dismal report that showed existing home sales dropped 9.6 percent in February. These are Depression era stats and builders know it which is why they're unloading homes as cheaply as possible. It's been 5 years since housing prices peaked in July 2006, and the market is still nowhere near the bottom. In fact, the rate of decline is accelerating. This is shaping up to be the worst spring in history.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Housing Market Double Dip and Economic Growth / Housing-Market / US Housing
Economic data continues to reinforce the reality that a housing double dip has in fact begun. Were it not for the 2010 tax credits there would likely have just been one dip and we would be further along the process of clearing supply than we are today. Regardless, it is here and the question then becomes what, if any impact will it have on economic growth.
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge, Gains From First-Time Home Buyer Program Nearly Erased / Housing-Market / US Housing
Sales of new single-family homes fell 16.9% to an annual rate of 250,000 in February, a new historical low for home sales. Sales of new single family homes have plunged 82% since the peak in July 2005 (1.389 million homes, see Chart 1). Sales of new single-family homes declined in all four regions of the nation, with the Northeast recording the largest drop (-57%).
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Concern Over Falling U.S. Housing Market Existing Home Sales / Housing-Market / US Housing
Sales of all existing homes fell 9.6% to an annual rate of 4.88 million units in February, after three consecutive monthly gains, while that of single-family units also declined 9.6% to an annual rate of 4.25 million units. Sales of existing homes declined in all regions of the economy, with the Midwest (-12.2%) recording the largest drop.
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Monday, March 21, 2011
Accelerating Trend of Foreigners Buying London Real Estate / Housing-Market / UK Housing
Foreigners are still interested in London's real estate. Citizens from 61 foreign countries purchased real estate in the British capital last year, a report from Knight Frank consulting company said. The presence of foreigners is especially noticeable in the sectors with prices starting from 2 million pounds sterling.
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Thursday, March 17, 2011
U.S. Housing Starts Plunge in February, Outlook Remains Gloomy / Housing-Market / US Housing
Starts of single-family units fell 22.5% in February to annual rate of 479,000, virtually identical to the 477,000 low seen in April 2009. New construction for single-family units fell 11.8% to annual rate of 375,000 in February, which is close to the historical low of 360,000 registered in January 2009. Essentially, construction of new homes has failed to rebound from historical lows despite a recovery that is seven quarters old.
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Monday, March 14, 2011
How Real Estate Came to Own Us / Housing-Market / US Housing
Cheap money, buyer tax incentives, lack of new supply, nothing seems to keep home prices elevated. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 1 percent in December. Prices fell in every market excepting Washington, DC, where the business of doing the people's business continues to expand seemingly without end.
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Thursday, March 10, 2011
China Housing Market Bubble Bust Could be Dubai X1000 / Housing-Market / China Economy
It's an eerily familiar story. Shortly before the American housing bubble burst, pundits across the globe argued that the world had reached a new plateau of economic growth, where the old rules of economics no longer applied — "this time it's different." The same has been said about the current boom in China, specifically with regards to its large degree of top-down state control over the economy, which somehow enables it to ignore the laws of economics.
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Thursday, March 10, 2011
U.S. Housing Market Developments Suggest Persistent Unease / Housing-Market / US Housing
The Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Purchase Index moved up 12.5% to 194.4 during the week ended March 4. On a monthly basis, the Mortgage Purchase Index has declined 3.3% in February following a nearly 8.0% drop in January. Of late, the link between mortgage applications for purchases of homes and actual sales appears to be weak (see Chart 1). Combined sales of homes rose slightly in January [Sales of existing homes advanced in January (+2.7%), while sales of new homes plunged (-12.6%)].
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Monday, March 07, 2011
U.K. Tracker Interest Rate Mortgages Fall to All Time Low / Housing-Market / Mortgages
The average rate on a two year tracker mortgage has fallen to 3.40%, its lowest level since Moneyfacts started monitoring rates in 1988.
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Monday, March 07, 2011
Dubai Property Market Crash BubbleOmiX Update 2011 / Housing-Market / Middle East
If you drive out on the highway towards Abu Dhabi past the Jebel Ali Free Zone, look on the right and you will see, partly covered in sand, the remnants of the billboards that used to declare, “Where the Vision of Dubai Get’s Built”.
I met a guy who claimed to have come up with that tag-line. He was a young American, very nice and very-very smart, based in New York working for a big-name branding company, with absolutely no clue of what Dubai is/was about. But he was making really good money, and that’s fundamentally what everything is about, in Dubai.
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Thursday, March 03, 2011
Fannie and Freddie Reform: Too Little, Too Late / Housing-Market / Market Regulation
David D'Amato writes: At the beginning of February, amidst Beltway budget clamoring and ahead of yesterday's statement from Bernanke, the Treasury issued a report to Congress announcing efforts to "wind down" Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The report, though conspicuously lacking in detail, sets forth three alternatives for reducing the role of the two government-backed companies, none of which actually prune the state's role in the housing market. Whatever route Congress decides to take, the fundamental problems that bedevil the present framework and caused the housing bubble (and resultant financial calamity) are left unaltered.
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011
U.S. Housing Market, More Trouble in Squanderville / Housing-Market / US Housing
Bob, Frank and Freddie all bought identical houses in the same neighborhood in 2004. Each man paid $300,000 for his home.
Bob paid the whole $300,000 in cash. Frank put down 10% (or $30,000) and took out a $270,000 mortgage. Freddie paid $0-down on a 100% mortgage.
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
U.S. Home Improvements Lift Residential Construction Outlays / Housing-Market / US Housing
Construction spending fell 0.7% in January after a 1.6% drop in the prior month. During January, the 5.3% jump in residential construction spending was largely due to home improvements (+10.5%, see Chart 7), with new construction of single family-units (+0.9%) posting a small gain and that of multi-family units declining (-2.9%). Non-residential private sector construction spending posted a significant drop (-6.9%).
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011
Pending U.S. Home Sales Index Points to Likely Weakness in Home Sale / Housing-Market / US Housing
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) of the National Association of Realtors fell 2.8% to 88.9 in January, after 3.2% drop in December. These back-to-back monthly declines bode poorly for sales of existing homes in the near term. The PHSI has a 1-2 month lead on actual sales of existing homes. Sales of existing homes rose 2.7% in January.
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Monday, February 28, 2011
Timing the China Property Crash / Housing-Market / China Economy
Inquiring minds are investigating Analysis of the Chinese Property Bubble by Huw McKay, Senior International Economist, for Westpac Bank.
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Friday, February 25, 2011
Sales of U.S. New Homes Decline in January to Erase Gains Posted in December / Housing-Market / US Housing
Sales of new single-family homes fell 12.6% to an annual rate of 284,000 in January after nearly a 17% jump in December. Effectively, the level of new home sales is back to the November 2010 mark. The record low is 274,000 established in August 2010. Regionally, sales of new homes fell in the South (-12.8%) and West (-36.5%) but advanced in the Northeast (+54.5%) and Midwest (+17.1%).
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Wednesday, February 23, 2011
U.S. House Prices Continue to Move Around Cycle Low / Housing-Market / US Housing
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 2.1% in the fourth quarter following a 3.3% decline in the prior quarter. The level of the index is close to the bottom registered in the first quarter of 2009 (see Chart 1). Price gains from the first-time home buyer program were only a temporary lift.
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Monday, February 21, 2011
Best Sources for UK Mortgages, Biggest isn’t always best! / Housing-Market / Mortgages
The UK’s largest lenders* have a three quarter market share, but only provide 145 (29%) of the top 500 mortgages.**
Just six of the top 50 two year fixed/85% LTV mortgages are offered by the largest lenders, equating to a mere 12%.
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