Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, July 29, 2022

All You Need to Know About the Increase in Building Insurance Premiums for Flats / Housing-Market / Insurance

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

If you’ve not heard about the cost of living crisis, then you must have been living under a rock. Expenses are going up while wages are going down and the consequences can be felt across the country. Whether it’s the eye-watering cost of filling up your car or the hike in the bill when you finish your food shop, rising costs are affecting everyone.

Insurance premiums are just one of the casualties.

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Friday, July 29, 2022

The Challenges on the Horizon for UK Landlords / Housing-Market / Buy to Let

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

Climate change – it’s a phrase we’ve heard all too often in recent months, years, and decades. The UK government has begun to action aspects of its manifesto towards tackling the problem and as a result, there are stricter regulations coming into play that will begin to effect landlords across the country. With such changes in the not-too-distant future, many landlords might already start worrying about the cost. Fortunately, companies like Propp specialise in finding the best finance for any given property, especially short-term funding agreements that will assist in covering the costs incurred of getting a property to the standard it needs to be to meet upcoming laws and policies.

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Wednesday, July 13, 2022

UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My expectations are for for average UK House prices (Halifax) to continue to trend higher over the next 3 years, punctuated by a brief pause during early 2023 in response to interest rate hikes, weakening economy and tax rises. However persistent high inflation, extreme over crowding and continuing strong population growth ensures that the bull market will remain in tact. Therefore my forecast conclusion is for average UK house prices (Halifax) to target a rise from £278,123 as of February 2022 over the next 3 years to £340,632 for February 2025 data (Halifax) targeting a price increase of 22.5% over 3 three years as as illustrated by my trend forecast graph below -

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Tuesday, July 12, 2022

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the 3rd and final part of my extensive analysis of the UK housing market that concludes in a detailed 3 year trend forecast for UK house prices ( Part 1, Part 2 )

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

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Sunday, July 10, 2022

Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

House prices will be higher a year from now, 2 years from now and definitely 3 years from now, the question mark is how high?

Momentum suggests a flat lining market from late 2022 with very light upwards price pressure during early 2023 that could see house price inflation briefly fall towards zero accompanied by maybe a couple of down months before the bull market resumes going into 2024 and 2025.

Net immigration of 300k and an expected Ukrainian influx of at least 200k is going to put the UK housing market under extra strain and upwards price pressure.

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Sunday, July 10, 2022

Work From Home Inflationary BOOM? / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.

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Saturday, July 09, 2022

UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bank of England just like it's US counterpart recognises the significance of the yield curve inversions not because it has magical powers but that it tends to act as a self fulfilling prophecy, i.e. if enough people act on such as trigger as they tend to do then YES it will negatively impact on economic activity as market participants respond accordingly.

However in this respect the Bank of England has done a good smoke and mirrors job of masking the importance of yield curve inversions in the UK, which just don't carry as much weight as they do in the US. The UK yield curve has already temporarily inverted in December, but as has been the case for some time it tends to be of a con flip significance. At best UK yield curve inversions signal economic stress that we are already well aware of.

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Tuesday, July 05, 2022

The Inflation Mega-trend and UK House Prices - Housing Market Analysis Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 / Housing-Market / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Inflation has soared to a 30+ year high even on the highly manipulated CPLIE measure resulting in the biggest fall in living standards since records began for the UK and probably similar for US and most western households who are in for a deep real terms drop in disposable income during 2022, with the UK set for an eye watering record plunge of over £2200 per household. Which if you remained focused on the mainstream press then you would not have seen any of it coming having been hoodwinked for the whole of 2021 by the central bank mantra of 'transient inflation' which as I repeatedly warned would turn out to be PERMANENT. However the con merchants are now playing the blame everything on Russia game, as if inflation and all of the West woes were none existant until Putin delusionally marched his amateur army into Ukraine having believed his own lies echoed by his YES Men ensuring him that victory would come within days of invasion.

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Thursday, June 30, 2022

UK Housing Market Analysis, Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 - Part 2 / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

This article is part 2 of 3 of my extensive analysis of the UK housing market that concludes in a detailed 3 year trend forecast for UK house prices (Part 1).

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

That was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Including access to my recent analysis -

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Tuesday, June 28, 2022

UK House Prices - Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK House Prices - Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES

There have been so many interest rate hike false dawns over the past decade that one has become skeptical that this time could be different, and YES THIS TIME COULD REALLY BE DIFFERENT DUE TO OUT OF CONTORL INFLATION that worries the CENTRAL BANKS for they understand that it risks igniting the wage price spiral which once it takes hold is not easily brought back under control, hence there is a very high probability of high inflation for a decade because the central banks will not do what needs to be done! FORGET THE NOISE ABOUT Interest rates soaring to ridiculous levels for Central banks know their banking crime syndicate brethren would go BUST! Instead rates will rise but NOT to the level needed i.e. to ABOVE the rate of INFLATION. The UK base Interest rate to control inflation would need to be ABOVE the rate of Inflation i.e. at about 10%! which is clearly not going to happen! Not even to HALF that level, and probably not even to 1/4 of that level, 2% is what the Bank of England is targeting! Whilst INFLATION rages to 10%! That is not going to cool inflation OR the HOUSING MARKET!

The Bank of England is targeting a joke interest rate of just 2%. For UK Interest rates to have any significant impact on the UK housing market the base rate would need to be above 5%, and even then the impact would be relatively mind. People are NOT STUPID! They understand Inflation of 10% vs a Mortgage rate of say 4% is a NO BRAINER i.e. BORROW to the HILT and let inflation do it's MAGIC!

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Wednesday, June 22, 2022

UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK house prices have soared into the stratosphere! Or have they? Not really, not in real terms anyway (RPI). However they are approaching the resistance of 2000's bull market high which could result in a consolidation of sorts. After all if I can see house prices in real terms hitting the buffers then so will be the expedience of most market participants where they are unable to finance property purchases at such extremes.

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Tuesday, June 21, 2022

UK House Prices Momentum Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK house prices momentum soared to over 10% per annum after the bull market broke out of it's 0% to 5% momentum range that it had been in for most of the 2010's. Instead it looks likely the UK is entering into a 10% to 7% momentum range which suggest to continue to expect year on year gains for several more YEARs in the range of 10% to 6%! Yes we will get corrections i.e. 2 or 3 months of mildly falling prices that I am sure will have the perma bears crowing of top being in and a crash just around the corner, but this bull market is far from done and momentum suggests to expect strong house price inflation for at least the next 3 years.

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Sunday, June 19, 2022

UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This graph shows that following Brexit UK house prices consolidated in GDP terms for a number of years towards trend before the current blast higher driven by the governments maniac pandemic spending binge .However, house prices are NOT that distant from trend so unless there IS a significant recession around the corner, this graph suggests the bull market has plenty of scope to continue trending higher for many years.

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Friday, June 17, 2022

UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Continuing with the affordability theme the real terms sustainable house prices trend metric uses a souped up version of the oft mentioned average earnings X 3.5 ratio, where the X3.5 ratio has been defective since the 1980's instead the relentless trend puts the ratio currently at about 4.5X average earnings which resolves in the following trend graph.

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Thursday, June 09, 2022

UK Housing Market Affordability Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Most academic housing market commentators focus on the various measures of housing market affordability or rather unaffordability as house prices despite the price crash of 2008-2009 never fell to anywhere near the affordability levels of the early 1990's housing bear market lows and therefore ivory tower academics have continued to cling onto expectations that a further house prices crash is inevitable so as to fit in with their theoretical models of where house prices should fall to in terms of affordability that gets liberally regurgitated in the mainstream press, and looking at the graph below it is very easy to be seduced by something that on first glance appears obvious that house prices really did have a long way to fall to reach the affordability levels of the past.

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Monday, June 06, 2022

UK Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The following is one of my custom UK housing market indicators that more clearly illustrates the degree of housing market crisis that Britain finds itself in as a ratio between the accumulative change in population since 1970 against the accumulative number of new completed house builds also since 1970 which shows the magnitude of the trend in over crowding of Britain's housing market that given recent mainstream press headlines based on academic studies clearly remain largely blind to the consequences of, because they still are unable to visualise the magnitude of Britain's housing crisis that has WORSENED since Britain voted to LEAVE the EU which should act as a warning to those who contemplate ever holding a second EU referendum, as it implies LEAVE would win by an even bigger margin next time!

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Saturday, June 04, 2022

UK Housing Market Over Crowding Ratio / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

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Thursday, June 02, 2022

UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The below graph shows the UK annual population change against annual net additional dwellings which includes completed new builds.

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Tuesday, May 31, 2022

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 - Part 1 / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

This article is part 1 of my extensive analysis of the UK housing market that concludes in a detailed 3 year trend forecast.

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

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Tuesday, May 31, 2022

UK Population Growth Trend Forecast to 2030 Current State / Housing-Market / Demographics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My long standing forecast is for the UK population to grow from 62.2 million as of Mid 2010 to at least 70.5 million by 2030 as excerpted below:

2nd August 2010 - UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030

The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.

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