Category: Gold and Silver 2021
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Being a Gold Bull Is Now Far Too Easy - Don’t Be Deceived / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Easy choices lead to a hard life (or at least losses), and because gold’s downside move is delayed, it’s extremely easy to be bullish on gold right now.
It’s easy to get carried away by the day-to-day price action, and it’s even easier to feel the emotions that other market participants are feeling while looking at the same short-term price action. Right now, it’s tempting to be bullish on gold. It’s “easy” to be bullish on gold while looking at what happened in the last 1.5 months. But what’s easy is rarely profitable in the long run.
“Easy choices – hard life. Hard choices – easy life” – Jerzy Gregorek
Let’s get beyond the day-to-day price swings. The Fed has been keeping the interest rates at ultra-low levels for many months, and it has just pledged to keep them low for a long time. The world is enduring the pandemic, and the amount of money that entered the system is truly astonishing. The savings available to investors skyrocketed. The USD Index has been beaten down from over 100 to about 90. And yet, gold is not at new highs. In fact, despite the 2020 attempt to rally above its 2011 high, gold’s price collapsed, and it invalidated the breakout above these all-important highs. It’s now trading just a few tens of dollars higher than it had been trading in 2013, right before the biggest slide of the recent years.
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Gold Staging New Momentum Base In Preparation For A Big Upside Move / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first portion of this research article, I highlighted the correlation between Gold and the US Dollar as well as the correlation between the US Dollar and the EURUSD and JPYUSD. The purpose of this example was to highlight the different phases of US Dollar appreciation vs depreciation compared to the EURUSD/JPYUSD. The EURUSD and JPYUSD are often compared to the US Dollar as major global currencies. Therefore, when the US Dollar moves into a depreciation phase, we expect to see the EURUSD and JPYUSD move into an appreciation phase.
How this correlated to the price of Gold and the phases of advancing vs declining precious metals is simple to understand. Gold will stall, or more broadly downward, while the US Dollar is within an advancing/appreciation phase. Gold will move higher or begin an upward trend bias when the US Dollar begins to generally weaken or moves into a declining/depreciation phase.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Gold Watch Out as Price May Be Staging New Momentum Base In Preparation For A Big Move Upwards / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Although Gold has continued to drift downward after reaching a peak near $2089.20 in early August 2020, our Custom Gold Inverse Trending Index suggests this weakness has actually built a very strong momentum base – preparing for a big move higher.
The relationship of Gold to the US Dollar is a fairly widely known correlation. When the US Dollar is weaker, Gold tends to rally. When the US Dollar is stronger, Gold tends to be weaker. Yet the combination of EURUSD and JPYUSD (plotted in INVERSE) in combination to the trend of the US Dollar related to Gold is difficult to ignore. Let’s explore this unique correlation a bit deeper.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 14, 2021
Gold: Lose a Battle to Win the War / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold scored some victories over the past days, but it’s playing a risky game. One misstep and the yellow metal might lose the war.
Sometimes, a good strategist needs to give up a few battles to eventually win the war. Or, at least, convince their enemy that they’re defeated while preparing a counterattack. Just the same, a chess player may need to sacrifice a piece in order to checkmate a king. Sun Tzu has spoken, and the Art of War translates well here.
In the world of trading, the same rules often apply. A good investor needs to give up a few unfavorable days to eventually score a final victory. Again, controlling one’s emotions and adhering to patience are key. These principles are important when waiting out gold’s temporary upswings in a medium-term downswing, and also when waiting for gold’s eventual ascent. Don’t let short-term intraday moves cloud your vision.
Yesterday (May 11), I wrote that the rally in gold and stocks might have just burnt itself out, and the markets didn’t wait long to agree with me.
Is it 100% certain that the top is in? Absolutely not, as there are no certainties in any market, and sound position management should be utilized at all times. But based on what happened yesterday, and what we saw in today’s pre-market trading, the odds that the corrective top is already in have greatly increased.
Friday, May 14, 2021
Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Richard_Mills
Gold bugs are closely watching what happens with Treasuries. Last year, the gold price hit a record high of $2,034/oz, largely due to the fact that investors were piling into bonds as a safe haven against pandemic-related uncertainty. A descending US dollar and negative real rates (when bond yields minus the inflation rate fall below 0%) were also important antecedents.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 12, 2021
Gold Price During Hyperinflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
Let’s start by defining hyperinflation…
“Hyperinflation is a term to describe rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general price increases in an economy. While inflation is a measure of the pace of rising prices for goods and services, hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month.” (source)
In addition, hyperinflation is described as “an extreme case of monetary devaluation that is so rapid and out of control that the normal concepts of value and prices are meaningless.”
The latter description is much more characteristic of the potential threat that most people envision when they invoke the term hyperinflation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 06, 2021
Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Before going into detail regarding my latest research and cycle phases, I want you to think of these cycle phases as Advancing and Declining cycle trends. They act as a “build-up of trend”, then an “unwinding of trend”. In each instance, trends can be either Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral in nature. My research team and I believe a new Bullish Cycle Phase has begun in Gold and Silver. If our research is correct, the next Advancing Cycle Phase may prompt a broad rally in Gold and Silver.
Understanding Cycle Phase Analysis & Trends in Metals
We interpret these cycle phases as unique trend segments involved in a broader cycle scope. For example, over a longer-term rally, we may see many Bullish Advancing and Declining cycle phases take place – one after another. Conversely, we may see many Bearish cycle phases take place in an extended downtrend. Another type of cycle phase can also exist, the Reversal Cycle Phase – where price Advances in one direction and Declines in the opposite direction. This type of Rotation Cycle Phase exists as the current completed Cycle on the Gold chart, below.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 04, 2021
Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As President Joe Biden pushed massive new spending initiatives in his address before Congress, investors shrugged off rising inflation risk. They pushed the S&P 500 up to a new record close on Thursday.
Gold, meanwhile, continues to be capped under the $1,800 level – at least for the time being. Silver shows a slight weekly gain and trades a little over $26 per ounce.
As trading closes out for the month of April, precious metals bulls will be hoping for a more fruitful May. Although May is typically a quiet month in markets – not known for producing major crashes or price spikes – it can represent a seasonal turning point.
The old adage, “sell in May and go away” is premised on the stock market entering a seasonally weak period that typically lasts through October.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 04, 2021
Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold started its decline without anyone’s assistance. And when the USDX takes off, that downhill tumble can only increase.
The USDX declines and the precious metals sit by idly, twiddling their thumbs. If they had the strength that’s being talked about, they should be soaring by now, or getting ready to. So, what’s their problem?
In the previous days, I discussed the signals coming from the precious metals market or for the precious metals market, as they kept on emerging, and we just received yet another round of indications. And yes, they also confirm the bearish outlook for the following weeks - or a few months.
Sunday, May 02, 2021
Will Powell Lull Gold Bulls to Sweet Sleep? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed left its monetary policy unchanged. However, the lack of any action amid economic recovery is dovish – good news for gold.On Wednesday (Apr. 28), the FOMC has published its newest statement on monetary policy . The statement wasn’t significantly altered. The main change is that the Fed has noticed the progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, and that, in consequence, the economic outlook has improved.
Previously, the US central bank said that indicators of economic activity and employment “have turned up recently, although the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak”, while now these indicators “have strengthened”, while “the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement”. So, the Fed acknowledged the fact that the economy has significantly recovered .
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 01, 2021
Are Technicals Pointing to New Gold Price Rally? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Although we tend to focus more on the fundamentals here at Money Metals, the technical indicators can offer important insights. Such as right now.
Many traders, investors, and momentum players will closely examine the market trend to determine if and when to enter or exit the market.
A market with a strong technical foundation can launch to dizzying heights, while a market displaying weak technicals will have a tough time putting together any sustainable upside.
The gold market has been primarily range bound for the last two months. The $1700 and $1800 levels have acted as support and resistance. Medium term, though, gold has been in a downtrend since its $2,100 high last August.
Friday, April 30, 2021
Three Reasons Why Waiting for "Cheaper Silver" Doesn't Make Cents / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
If you're still waiting to buy physical silver to start a stash, you're now playing financial Russian Roulette... with four rounds in the cylinder.
The chat rooms talk about buying silver and gold when they decline in price. "If silver goes down to 22, I'm all in!" "When these 'excessive' premiums drop a few dollars, I'm backing up the truck."
1) Emotion and Sentiment
Believe it or not, buying on a price drop goes against human nature.
It is a bit strange, because if you go to the store and find your favorite grass-fed beef on sale, you'll probably see how much you can stuff in the freezer. But back to the metals.
Thursday, April 29, 2021
Silver Price Enters Acceleration Phase / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor discusses silver's rise and what may lie ahead.
Spot silver is trading around $26 per ounce…but you can't buy any at that price.
Instead, you'll have to pay almost 50% more.
That's right. If you want silver right now, you'll need to pay at least $35 per ounce.
If you prefer government mint coins, and you're willing to wait a month to get them, you'll have to pay upwards of $37 per 1 oz coin.
In the past year, premiums on physical silver have tripled from normal levels. Bullion dealers have been overwhelmed. Product shortages are now commonplace, with customers waiting 3 weeks or longer for shipping.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 28, 2021
Gold Prices – Don’t Get Too Excited / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOOD NEWS… The rebound in gold prices from their recent low has awakened new fervor among those looking for the elusive moonshot. The ‘obvious’ signs of much higher inflation have emboldened those who are inclined to predict ever higher gold prices.
Contrastingly, the chart of GLD prices pictured below doesn’t look all that great…
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 26, 2021
Gold's Perfect Storm / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Richard_Mills
US Treasuries are as much sought-out by investors in a crisis or pending crisis, but lately, Treasuries have become much less popular as a means of storing wealth.
The reason is simple: T-bills don’t offer a good return, and neither do other sovereign debt instruments. Although US Treasury yields have been climbing, owing partly to expectations of inflation, in recent weeks this trend has reversed, amid renewed concerns about the pandemic.
On Tuesday, the World Health Organization warned that global infections were reaching their highest levels, prompting many fund managers to rotate money into safe-haven bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slid to 1.5% while the 30-year yield was reduced to 2.26%.
Looking at the 10-year chart, we see the yield starting to climb in January, reaching as high as 1.74% on March 19 before falling from 1.69% at the start of April to the current 1.5 %.
Subtract 2.6% inflation and the real yield is negative 1.1%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 26, 2021
Biden’s ‘Green Reset’ Could Be Great for Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As top officials around the world convene this week for a “climate summit,” President Joe Biden’s administration is planning the most radical expansion of government’s role in the economy since FDR’s New Deal.
The objective is nothing short of transitioning the entire U.S. and world economy to “clean energy” – as determined and directed by central planners.
Vice President Kamala Harris vowed, “We are not going to take it slow. We are not going to take it one step at a time. We are going to take one giant leap.”
First it was a Green New Deal, then it was a Great Reset. Now, apparently, it is a Giant Leap.
Saturday, April 24, 2021
Gold Price Reversal? Have No Fear! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 closed in the the red, vindicating my bearish sentiment going into Monday‘s session. And as I have tweeted during the day, the sellling doesn‘t appear to be over. Friday‘s:
(…) selling wave before the close looks to indicate hesitation ahead. Even though VIX is attacking the 16 level, and the put/call ratio ticked higher, the bulls are little disturbed thus far.
While VIX rose yesterday, it finished only a little above 17 – the tide in stocks hasn‘t turned to fear even temporarily in the least, and the current consolidation would still be one to be bought.
That‘s the result of ample liquidity in the system, which is denting the rotations. Yields moved higher yesterday, and defensives including tech or Down Jones Industrial Average rightly felt the pressure more than value stocks.
Thursday, April 22, 2021
Gold Rebounds Amid Positive Economic Reports / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Several economic indicators have surprised us on the positive side. Nevertheless, the price of gold has rebounded.Finally! The price of gold has been rising recently . As the chart below shows, the yellow metal rebounded from the late March bottom of $1,684 to above $1,770 on Friday (Mar. 16). This could be a promising start to the second quarter of 2021, which looks better than the first.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 22, 2021
Gold Price Next Key Level / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Gold rallied last week toward the top of a down-trending channel that has been in force since prices peaked last summer.
A breakout attempt in early January failed. The gold market subsequently slumped to a potential double-bottom low in March around $1,675/oz.
The $1,800 level now looms as a critical technical juncture.
The recent bounce could either fail around there… or gather the strength to finally break out of the multi-month corrective phase.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Gold, USDX: The Board is Set, the Pieces are Moving / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
A culminating point has been reached. With the USD Index being backed up by solid fundamentals, can gold hold the line?
Have you ever noticed how often the language of war is used in finance and economics articles? A given company is on the defensive or the offensive, a stock is pushing forward, something else is rallying, positions are being taken… who will fire first? It’s the case of continuous push and pull factors that makes military strategies and concepts relevant to the subject of money.
Now, when it comes to gold and the USD Index, it’s not the great battle of our time (in reference to today’s title), as Gandalf explained to Pippin in The Lord of the Rings, but it’s a battle, nonetheless. For the yellow metal, it could even be the deep breath before the plunge. We’ll soon find out.
With an epic struggle for supremacy set to unfold in the coming weeks, battle lines have officially been drawn: with the USD Index hovering near its 50-day moving average and gold recapturing its 50-day MA, negatively correlated assets have officially collided. And, as the rules of engagement specify that to the victor go the spoils, which one is likely to wave the white flag?