Category: Stock Markets 2018
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, July 29, 2018
The Trillion Dollar Stock Question / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Doug_Wakefield
How many people do you know who are billionaires? Unless you are a billionaire, probably not too many. How many people do you know who run companies worth a trillion dollars?Currently none, but that could change in August.
The last full week of July has presented us with three possible candidates for the trillion-dollar circle; the pinnacle of stock market mountain.
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Sunday, July 29, 2018
S&P 500 vs. Gold (AKA Amigo #1); a Closer Look at Risk / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
Not much has changed since the last 3 Amigos macro update. Amigo #2 (long-term yields) has long-since reached the Continuum’s ™ limiter (the 100 month exponential moving average on the 30 year Treasury yield) and Amigos #1 (SPX/Gold) and #3 (the 10-2 yield curve) are still on their respective trends (up for SPX/Gold and flattening for the yield curve), indicating a positive and risk ‘on’ macro backdrop.
Of the 3 wacky riders, with Steve Martin now having gotten home and Martin Short a duller indicator (and lesser light), let’s focus on the Chevy Chase Amigo. There he is on the left, a look of triumphant joy on his face riding one-handed with his arm up in the air. Not a care in the world (as Steve Martin braces for the impact of Continuum’s limiter).
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Saturday, July 28, 2018
Stock Market Continues to Ignore “Sell in May and Go Away”. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As demonstrated in today’s daily market outlook, the S&P 500 tends to experience seasonal weakness from May – September.
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Friday, July 27, 2018
The Stock Market is Near New All-time Highs. Forward Returns are VERY Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
So far in 2018 we have been consistently on the right side of the market via:
- Focusing on the fundamental economic data.
- Using quantitative market studies to determine whether the market is more likely to go up or down.
The S&P 500 is now within 1% of its all-time highs, while the S&P 500’s Total Return Index (which includes dividends) has already made a new all-time high vs. its January 2018 high.
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Chinese Yuan’s Depreciation is Not Bearish for the U.S. Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Chinese Yuan has tanked recently on Trump’s trade war.
Here’s USDCNY (a spike in USDCNY = Chinese Yuan tanking).
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Stocks: When "Sentiment is Strikingly Suited" for a Major Stock Market Event / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
What an extreme use of leverage tells you about the trend
Stock market history shows that when the Elliott wave model of stock market patterns and market bullish/bearish sentiment indicators are aligned, you have the basis for a high-confidence forecast.
That was the exact situation back in January, right before the stock market's jarring sell-off, from which stocks still haven't quite recovered.
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Tuesday, July 24, 2018
SKEW has Spiked. What This Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The CBOE’s SKEW Index measures potential risk for the financial markets over the next 30 days. When the SKEW Index spikes, conventional “wisdom” assumes that there’s a greater chance of a “black swan” event occurring in the financial markets.
The SKEW Index typically ranges from 100 to 150. The higher the value, the greater the chance of a “black swan” event.
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Monday, July 23, 2018
Proprietary System Shows Stock Market Rally Could Extend Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The following Weekly charts are illustrations of one of our proprietary price modeling systems that shows trends, market breadth and much more. We use this almost exclusively on longer-term (Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly charts) to help us understand where longer-term support and resistance levels are, where the market ranges are truly important and to determine true market breadth. When we are studying Daily chart or intra-day charts – the shorter term price rotation can often clutter our interpretation of the long term expectations. Yes, we have other modeling systems, predictive analysis systems, Fibonacci systems, Adaptive Cycles systems and more. Our collection of proprietary analysis tools is very deep. Yet, one has to know how to use these tools and what value they can provide at different times.
Saturday, July 21, 2018
Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President (1/2) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Trumponomics in a nutshell can be summed up as a mish mash of policies built on tweets that has surprisingly so far delivered relative stock market strength for the broad US markets this year that has the Dow currently trading at 25,064 marginally up from at the start of the year opening level of 24,720 whilst standing up 7.5% a from its early April low of 23,300. So as the Dow chart illustrates the stock market has refused to FALL this year despite the chaos of the unfolding trade war that has been the focus of the mainstream press for 2018.
Friday, July 20, 2018
Gold Stocks Investment Wanes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s summer doldrums are dragging on this year, with this asset slumping longer and lower than usual. Several converging factors are responsible. The stronger dollar has convinced gold-futures speculators to sell aggressively, and gold’s downside momentum has fed on itself. Investment demand has waned on the resulting weaker gold prices and euphoric near-record-high stock markets, but that should reverse soon.
Summers are usually gold’s weakest time of the year seasonally. So investors and speculators need to be mentally prepared for lackluster or bearish trading action this time of year. Market summers run Junes, Julies, and Augusts. And their first halves are simply devoid of the recurring outsized spikes in gold investment demand seen during much of the rest of the year. Thus gold prices tend to drift neglected.
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Thursday, July 19, 2018
S&P 500 Just 2% Below Record High, But There's More Stock Market Uncertainty / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were basically unchanged on Wednesday, as investors took short-term profits off the table following the recent rally. Is this a topping pattern before downward reversal, or just a quick flat correction before another leg up? Will quarterly earnings releases drive the market higher?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and 0.3% on Wednesday, as investors' sentiment remained pretty bullish following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index reached the highest since the early February, as it slightly extended its short-term uptrend yesterday. It currently trades just 2.0% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% and the technology Nasdaq Composite was unchanged on Wednesday.
Thursday, July 19, 2018
Stock Market Technical Picture / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Christopher_Quigley
No two recessions are ever the same.
One of the best indicators of a possible recession on the horizon is the inversion of the American Treasury interest rate yield curves. Inversion means the yield on short term rates are abnormally higher than long term rates. With Jerome Powell, the FED chairman, publically committed to another two .25% interest rate hikes this year, it is highly probable that by year end the 2/10 year yield curve will have inverted. (Currently the spread between the 2 year and 10 year yield is only .26%). In the recessions of 2000 and 2008 the American economy experienced severe recessions within 22 months and 24 months, respectively, upon yield curve inversion.
Thursday, July 19, 2018
Economic Combustion Powering SPX to Test All-Time High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Mike_Paulenoff
A big-picture perspective of the S&P 500 (SPX) shows that the most recent up-leg off of the June 28 low at 2691.99 has climbed to a new high at 2816.25, or +4.6%. In so doing, the SPX has hurdled its prior two significant rally peaks at June 13 (2791.47) and at March 13 (2801.90), positioning the index for upside continuation to my next optimal target zone of 2845-2860.
Should such a scenario unfold, the SPX, in effect, will be climbing towards a test of its all-time high at 2872.87 from January 26 of this year. Only a break below 2789 will trigger initial signals that the June-July up-leg needs a breather.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2018
Stock Market Investor “Buy the Dip” Mentality is Still Strong, Which is Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market’s “buy the dip” mentality is very strong right now.
The S&P 500’s pullbacks are becoming smaller and smaller, while the S&P 500 has started to break out.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2018
Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our weekend analysis of the markets continues to amaze our research team simply because we see so many other researchers continue to miss the signals. We’ve been calling this market bottom since the middle of February 2018 and we have stuck to our analysis even though we’ve taken some flack from others about it. Now, with earnings nearly upon us and the markets poised to either breakout higher or rotate lower, our longer-term analysis shows the markets are in pretty good shape for a continued upside rally.
This week, there are 214 companies reporting earnings data. Next week, there are 781 companies reporting earnings data. The following week, another 1003 companies release earnings data. Combined, we are going to have 1998 companies releasing Q2 earnings data and each of these, to some extent, could drive the markets higher or lower as this data is digested.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2018
A Better Yield Curve for Predicting the Stock Market is Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Treasury yield curve is flattening, which has some investors and traders turning bearish. Most people focus on the 10 year – 2 year yield curve, which is close to inverting.
*Investors and traders only need to be careful once the yield curve inverts. A flattening yield curve on its own means nothing until it becomes inverted.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2018
U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Jim_Curry
With the action seen in past months, it is time to take a look at what the various time cycles are saying in regards to U.S. stocks - as well as any particular technical indications that track the same.
Short-Term Cycles
In terms of time, as noted in our daily Market Turns report, the short-term cycles projected a trough for the SPX by the June 28th timeframe, plus or minus a day, with the index bottoming out at the 2691.99 figure - made right on that June 28th date. From there, the cycles called for strength into the mid-July timeframe - which we are obviously now into, and where another short-term peak is soon due with the 20-day cycle, though it can easily come from higher numbers than already seen:
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Easy Money Over, Show Time Begins As Real Macro Battle Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Submissions
The market went according to expectations and projections in the second week of July after the first week's huge bull reversal week. The bulls were able to retain their bull train momentum from the prior week and managed to do a decent job on the standard continuation upside pattern demonstrated by the consecutive higher lows and higher highs on the micro charts.
For the most part it was just a typical perfect week following our 4-hour white line projection chart. Initially rejected at the major 2800 level on the S&P 500, the bulls held the expected pullback with a low of 2765.75 on Tuesday night and eventually managed to wrap up the week around the highs at 2800 for the weekly candle.
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Monday, July 16, 2018
Stock Market Uptrend Continues, But... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday's trading session was pretty much uneventful, as investors awaited the coming quarterly earnings releases season. The S&P 500 index continued to trade along the level of 2,800 and it's closer to breaking higher towards the late January record high. There are still two possible medium-term scenarios, but bulls are happier than a week ago.
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.4% on Friday, as investors took some short-term profits off the table following the recent advance. The S&P 500 index traded along the level of 2,800. It reached the highest since the early February. It currently trades 2.5% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% and the technology Nasdaq Composite was unchanged on Friday.
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Monday, July 16, 2018
(Only) a Near-term Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – In spite of recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 may have to extendits corrective phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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