Category: Stock Markets 2018
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Just in time for what appears to be a potentially massive market price rotation, our researchers have put together this post to highlight what we believe will become a surprise price correction in the US Equities markets. Our team of researchers believes the correlation of our predictive modeling tools, predictive cycle tools, and other indicators are set up for what may become a massive 5~8% price rotation over the next 60 days.
We were expecting this rotation to start unfolding around mid-September (now) but at this time the technical are still bullish so we are not betting against the market just yet.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2018
The Stock Market’s Breadth: Another Warning Sign for 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
We are getting more and more signs that the stock market will face trouble in 2019. Some of these market studies center around breadth.
The stock market’s breadth has been deteriorating recently. Some of this is due to weakness in foreign (non-U.S.) stocks.
Long term breadth divergence is a normal part of rallies within bull markets. There’s nothing bearish about breadth divergences. HOWEVER, long term breadth divergences that have gone too far while accompanied by massive bull market rallies are a bearish sign for stocks.
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Monday, September 17, 2018
Trade Wars Are Going To Crash This Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
This week, I am going to bring back the list of reasons that have been paraded before you over the last three-plus years as to why the stock market rally is over:
Brexit – NOPE
Frexit – NOPE
Grexit - NOPE
Italian referendum - NOPE
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Monday, September 17, 2018
Stock Market Bulls Prevail – for Now! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – Another correction has started which could conceivably continue into mid-October.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Sunday, September 16, 2018
Stock Market Correction Ahead, But When? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Harry_Dent
The broader stock market via the S&P 500 finally broke to new highs in August, while they drifted insignificantly lower on Wednesday.And as Adam O’Dell recently commented, that typically means substantially higher highs ahead… like 13% plus.
What does this mean for my great crash forecast?
Well, my favored scenario right now, with the strong tax cuts Trump handed us, is that the great bubble peak comes in late 2019, not now.
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Saturday, September 15, 2018
Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Our Long Term Risk Model suggests that the U.S. economy & bull market are almost at the point at which “things can’t get much better”, but we’re not completely there yet.
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Friday, September 14, 2018
Elliott Wave Analysis of Dow Jones Trucking Index (DJUSTK) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: WavePatternTraders
This index has been strong recently and is one of the components of the Dow Transportation Average (DJT). I am closely watching the Dow Jones Trucking Index (DJUSTK) for clues to when the DJT will end its advance from the 2016 lows and reverse lower, as it seems that the recent fuel that is driving the Dow Transportation Average (DJT) higher is coming from the rail road and trucking stocks.Looking at DJUSTK I can make a solid case that it’s close to ending an impulse wave from the 2016 lows and current advance is in a 5th wave, although it may still push a little higher as some of the major stocks in the DJUSTK would look better if new highs were seen, stocks just as SAIA & XOP etc. Once we see new highs or some evidence of a reversal I am expecting the DJT to reverse lower.
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Thursday, September 13, 2018
Low Volatility Has Returned to the Stock Market. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As you’ve probably noticed, the U.S. stock market’s volatility has been notably low over the past 2 months. It’s been 55 consecutive days without a >1% daily change!
*This is surprising because volatility is typically higher during August and September (more bearish seasonality).
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Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Stock Market Final Probe Higher ... Then the PANIC! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX closed above Short-term support at 2887.58, but SPX futures are challenging it this morning. Despite the cross-currents, there is room for yet another probe higher that may last until early afternoon (near 1:00 pm). That will be the 60th hour and 8.6 days from the top.
Looking at today’s economic calendar, the most intriguing item at 1:00 pm is the 10-Year T-Note Auction.
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Wednesday, September 12, 2018
US Economy We’re Close to “As Good as it Gets”, But Not Quite There / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index just surged to its highest level ever.
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Tuesday, September 11, 2018
China Extends its Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Starting off with the Shanghai Index, which probed beneath the August low this morning. This confirms that Wave (3) may not be complete. Three other indicators of that analysis are, First, Head & Shoulders, when the neckline rests at the bottom of a Wave (1), indicate the minimum target for Wave (3). Next, the Cycles Model does not indicate a Master Cycle low until late October. Finally, a Wave (3) should terminate well beneath the daily Cycle Bottom. There’s still work to do!
Tuesday, September 11, 2018
Index Put/Call Ratio spiked. What this Means for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The CBOE’s Index Put/Call Ratio spiked yesterday to 1.78
The Index Put/Call Ratio (CPCI) is different from the Equity Put/Call Ratio (CPCE). The Index Put/Call Ratio measures index options as opposed to equity options. For a more detailed explanation, go to Stockcharts.
The stock market made a short-medium term rally the last 2 times the Index Put/Call Ratio spiked to at least 1.77
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Tuesday, September 11, 2018
Stock Market Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's now nearly 2 months since I published my stock market trend forecast for the whole of the remainder of 2018 on the 21st of July 2018 which was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Tuesday, September 11, 2018
Transportation Index Leads Stock Market Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent upside breakout seen in the US Transportation Index is a very important signal for traders. Our research team has been following these moves for many months and we believe the recent upside breakout in the $TRAN is a strong sign of future US Equities price moves and all traders should be paying very close attention.
The Transportation Index typically leads the US Equities markets by about 3 to 6 months. Transportation is one of the core elements of economic activity. Items entering the US or distributed throughout the US must rely on transportation to ship/deliver these goods to resellers, wholesalers, and ports. When the Transportation Index rises, one should expect the economic activity to continue to increase.
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Monday, September 10, 2018
Stock Market Upward Reversal or Just Rebound? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
The broad stock market slightly extended its short-term downtrend on Friday, as investors continued taking profits off the table after the recent record-breaking rally. However, the S&P 500 index remains relatively close to its record high. Is this a topping pattern or just a pause before another leg up?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.2-0.3% on Friday, slightly extending their short-term downtrend, as investors reacted to the monthly jobs data release. The S&P 500 index has reached the record high of 2,916.50 on August the 29th. It currently trades 1.5% below that high. Both, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3% on Friday.
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Monday, September 10, 2018
Will Stock Market Support Hold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – Another correction has started which could conceivably continue into mid-October.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Saturday, September 08, 2018
Stock Market Weak September Start Like 1987, 1991, and 2001? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Earlier this week I said that September would probably be weak. So far this weakness has played out, with the S&P falling every day this past week.
There are only 3 other historical cases in which the S&P started September by falling 4 days in a row.
- September 1987
- September 1991
- September 2001
Friday, September 07, 2018
The Stock Market is Experiencing “Sector Rotation”. Is this Bearish? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has been experiencing sector rotation recently.
- Earlier this year: the NASDAQ outperformed the Dow
- Now: the Dow is outperforming the NASDAQ (Dow is catching up).
Conventional technical analysis would have you believe that this is a bearish sign for the stock market. Conventional technical analysis states that “the bull market is dead when the leaders become laggards and previous laggards become leaders”.
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Friday, September 07, 2018
The Most Important Chart To Explain Why Stock Market Bears Lose Money / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have spoken about this many times in the past, but the fact is that very few understand our financial markets. While no one is perfect when it comes to being able to identify turning points in the market, I think we all know that there has been a significant increase in that lack of perfection when it comes to the US stock market over the last three years.
You see, many focus on the wrong factors when making decisions about the stock market. While events such as Brexit, Frexit, Grexit, rise in interest rates, cessation of QE, terrorist attacks, Crimea, Trump, Syrian missile attack, North Korea, record hurricane damage in Houston, Florida, and Puerto Rico, quantitative tightening, trade wars, and many more have scared investors into believing the bull market will come to an end, none of these events have even put a dent in this bull market as it has rallied 50% during this period.
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Thursday, September 06, 2018
Mixed Stock Market, Topping Pattern or Just Pause Within a Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were mixed on Wednesday, as investors continued to take profits off the table following the recent rally. The broad stock market remains relatively close to its new record high. Is this a topping pattern or just pause before another leg up?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -1.2% and +0.1% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent record-breaking rally. The S&P 500 index has reached the record high of 2,916.50 last week. It currently trades below 2,900 mark. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2% yesterday.
The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at 2,875-2,885, marked by last week's Monday's daily gap up of 2,876.16-2,884.69 and yesterday's daily low of around 2,877. The support level is also at 2,860-2,865. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is at 2,900. The next resistance level is at 2,910-2,915, marked by the mentioned last Wednesday's record high.
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