Category: Gold and Silver 2016
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Saturday, January 30, 2016
Gold Price Potential Upside 2016 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
The most important chart of 2016!
Charts in this essay are courtesy Stockcharts.com unless indicated.
Friday, January 29, 2016
No Change in Outlook for Gold and Silver 2016 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
With each passing rally hope has bloomed that the bear market in precious metals may be over. The long and deep “forever bear” has to end but it hasn’t yet. Under the surface, the bear market is getting weaker and Gold is growing stronger. It’s showing strength against foreign currencies and has broken its downtrend relative to equities. These are very positive developments and a precursor to the birth of a new bull market. However, the weak rebounds in the metals coupled with the potential for a US Dollar breakout advise us to continue to remain patient and cautious.
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Friday, January 29, 2016
US Mint Gold Bullion Coin Sales / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Recent years have seen countless claims that gold and silver prices have to head far lower, implying demand is low or supply is high. But the actual data continues to prove this false, showing precious-metals bearishness is rooted in sentiment and not fundamentals. One fascinating microcosm of gold and silver demand comes in the form of the US Mint’s sales of its popular American Eagle bullion coins.
When American investors buy physical gold and silver bullion, it’s often in the form of these American Eagle 1-ounce coins. They have a really interesting history. Back in the early 1980s, foreign national gold coins led by South Africa’s famous Krugerrand were soaring in popularity. The US Congress didn’t want the States to be left out of the prestigious national-gold-coin business, so it finally acted in 1985.
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Friday, January 29, 2016
The Fed’s Normalization and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
The Fed hike is not the end of the world. The U.S. economy experienced many tightening cycles. Actually, many analysts are citing past rate hike environments as a guide to the future. However, three things make this tightening cycle (if there are more hikes at all) unique. First, the U.S. central bank increased interest rates when the economy is actually decelerating and the manufacturing sector is in a recession. This makes new hikes less probable, while increasing the odds for the U.S. recession in the new year. Both effects are fundamentally positive for the gold market.
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Friday, January 29, 2016
Gold and Silver Price Manipulation: Can It Be Empirically Verified? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Dr Brian Lucey, Dr Jonathan Batten and Dr Maurice Peat have just published some interesting research looking at the thorny issue of whether there is manipulation of gold and silver prices.
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Thursday, January 28, 2016
FOMC Dovish: Gold to Go Higher and Stocks to Bounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
The worsening of financial conditions this year led markets to price in rates to remain unchanged at the January FOMC meeting, with many speculating the Fed to deliver a dovish statement. This has now been realised. Language used described that the FOMC recognised that economic activity had slowed and that inflationary pressures and expectations had “decline further”. As a result, it will now take an improvement in financial market conditions for the Fed to hike again at their next meeting, which is in March.
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Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Gold and Silver - There's Something Worse than Having a "Losing Position" / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
David Smith writes: here's something worse than giving up at the bottom...
There's something worse than watching prices fall as you continue to add on the way down...
It's giving up "three feet from gold," when if you had just stuck it out a bit longer, things might have turned your way.
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Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Gold Price Revaluation Coming To $22,000 Per Ounce? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Hugo Salinas Price, Mexican business magnate, investor, and philanthropist and the president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, writes today that gold will soon return to its traditional role in the international monetary system.
The current melt-down of the world’s debt bubble is likely to continue in the course of the next months and Salinas believes that the salvaging all debt and derivatives might require a gold price as high as between $22,000 and $50,000 per ounce.
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Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Dovish Fed to Send Gold Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Gold and US real rates have long had an inverse relationship. Gold rallied to all-time highs while monetary policy was being made historically accommodative through quantitative easing. Then, as these measures were reduced and the Fed moved towards the beginning of a new tightening cycle a bear market in the metal began, leading the metal to almost halve from its prior highs.
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Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Gold Remains Weak In This Disinflationary Environment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Gold is struggling. Gold bulls will tell you that the yellow metal is doing great, as it has gone up since the start of the year, while stocks and most other commodities have come down. That is obviously only part of the story. As fear among investors has exploded in recent weeks, one would expect gold’s fear trade character to manifest itself. So far, the fear trade has been contained.
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Monday, January 25, 2016
Gold Price May Lead Gold Mining Stocks – Latest Research / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Dr Brian Lucey and Dr Fergal O’Connor have just published some interesting research on the correlations of the gold price and gold mining indices.
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Saturday, January 23, 2016
Gold And Silver - Chart Facts Are Market's Message / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
We keep reiterating that one need not be expert, nor even conversant, in reading a chart to be able to read and appreciate how charts "talk" and reveal very clear information. Opinions are of no consequence, regardless of how strong or otherwise "informed" one is about a market.
A fact is something upon which people of diverging opinions can agree, at least within reason. Each of the following charts contains facts, and it has always been our position that the market has its own message[s] contained in price volume behavior that has a convincing element of reason, no matter what the skill level of one's ability, or lack of, to read a chart.
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Saturday, January 23, 2016
Gold Could Lose Safe-Haven Bid as Equities Rebound / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Gold and Silver have held up well during the recent selloff in equities. From December 28 through Wednesday the broad NYSE lost 10.4% while the S&P 500 lost 9.6%. Precious Metals gained strength during that period. Gold advanced 3.0% while Silver gained 1.7%. Gold relative to the NYSE broke its downtrend and touched an 11-month high. Gold relative to global equities (excluding the US market) reached a 2-year high. Precious metals have clearly benefitted from the equity selloff but therefore figure to lose strength as the equity market begins a relief rally.
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Friday, January 22, 2016
Silver Undervalued Versus Stocks, Bonds, Property and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Precious metals continue to look very undervalued vis a vis most asset classes – particularly stocks and bonds.
This is especially the case with silver which has fallen by more than 70% from what we believe was an intermediate price high of $49 in 2011 – despite surging demand for silver bullion coins and bars from canny buyers investing in silver.
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Friday, January 22, 2016
Peak Gold and Silver - It’s Here! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Have we reached peak precious metals? Many analysts think so.
Just to be clear, however, the idea of peak gold and peak silver doesn’t refer to a peak prices. The precious metals put in a cyclical price high in 2011. But annual mining production levels may have peaked in 2014-2015. This is what is meant by “peak precious metals.”
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Friday, January 22, 2016
Gold Resists a Raid, Silver Holds Place, Northeast Prepares For Snow / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Gold was hit early on in a general 'stocks are good, gold is bad' move that fizzled into the late afternoon. Despite all the misinformation to the contrary, gold is still a safe haven asset.
Silver held its ground.
There was intraday commentary on the increasingly 'insubstantial' nature of the NY gold trade, and the relative robust purchasing of physical gold in Asia. You may scroll down to see it.
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Friday, January 22, 2016
Gold Maintains Value Despite Oil and Stock Market Crash / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Investors should analyze 2016 year to date action as it is generally a good predictor of how the year will look.
Major capitulation in oil and global market rout sends investors to the sidelines seeking out capital preservation.
Volatility is soaring and precious metals are holding their values in January.
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Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Marc Faber Warns Invest In Gold Now As Stock Market To Crash / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Marc Faber, editor of the “Gloom, Doom & Boom Report,” has advised investors that now is a good time to invest in gold because stocks will crash over 40% and the world is on the verge of a new liquidity and debt crisis.
Faber says investors would be prudent to diversify into safe haven in gold bullion which has risen 3% this year and is currently at $1,096 an ounce.
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Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Silver Price Hitting Major Support / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
The long term silver chart is truly spectactular. It has basically 3 time periods since it started its bull market.
Phase I started in 2003 and lasted till 2010. Phase II was a trend change, indicated with the rectangle below, between 2011 and 2013, an extremely volatile period. Phase III is the current phase, and is basically a clear downtrend.
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Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Central Planners Freaking Out about Discussion of Gold’s Role / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Growing Support for Sound Money Rankles Fed Apologists
Sound money issues make for good politics these days. The leading Republican candidates have all suggested reforms to our monetary system. The topic is popping up in debates as well as interviews. Predictably, Fed worshippers and proponents of central planning everywhere are snickering and trotting out the usual responses.
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