Category: Double Dip Recession
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, September 02, 2011
Nouriel Roubini 60% Chance of A Double Dip Recession 2012, China and Brazil Also at Risk / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: EconMatters
"We’ve reached a stall speed in the economy, not just in the U.S., but in the euro zone and the UK. We see probably a 60 percent probability of recession next year, and, unfortunately, we’re running out of policy tools.....and sovereigns cannot bail out their own distressed banks because they are distressed themselves."
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Nouriel Roubini "we're going into a recession" / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Bloomberg
Nouriel Roubini spoke to Bloomberg TV's Margaret Brennan today, giving his latest forecast for the U.S. economy, the European debt crisis and economic challenges in China.
Roubini told Bloomberg TV, "we're going into a recession based on my numbers" and that "we are running out of policy tools" as the U.S. and European governments no longer have the resources to bail out their troubled banks.
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Monday, August 29, 2011
US In Recession Right Here, Right Now / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
I am amused by those who think a US recession will come within a year. Even more amusing are those who think a recession will not come at all.
The US is in a recession now. I am not the only one who thinks so.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Recession 2012 Recession is Probable / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Barry_Elias
A recession in 2012 is becoming more probable.
In an apparent attempt to camouflage the anticipated poor data, the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) may employ a methodology that underestimates inflation and overestimates real Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
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Sunday, August 21, 2011
The “Treasonous” Fed, Recession of 2011? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
The data this week was just ugly. Even the uptick in the leading economic indicators, seized upon by so many talking heads, must have a large asterisk beside it. This week we look at the increasing probability that we are headed for recession, and the follow-on implications. Then I take a perilous and speculative journey into the realm of the political, commenting on Texas (and my) Governor Rick Perry's rather interesting comments about the Fed and Ben Bernanke. There is a lot to cover, and lots of charts, so we will jump right in. But please read at the end about two events coming up in the next few months that you might be very interested in attending.
Friday, August 19, 2011
Could This Be the Beginning of a Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: George_Maniere
I can’t remember how many times I have written that the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Well yesterday I was reading a post from a reader who is an economics professor and he told me that I was correct. We are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world but what I was leaving out of that sentence was that we are the largest economy in the world. He told me that the true test is not how large our debt is, the true test is what is our nation’s debt is in relation to our Gross Domestic Product. He further wrote, citing the “CIA World Factbook” that the ratio of our debt to GDP is 53.9% and that figure puts us in 38th place in the ranking of countries in the world. He offered several examples. The dubious distinction of first place belongs to Japan whose debt to GDP is a staggering 225.8% and most surprising to me in 20th place was Germany whose debt to GDP was 78.8%.
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Friday, August 19, 2011
Could This Be the Beginning of a Recession? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: George_Maniere
I can’t remember how many times I have written that the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Well yesterday I was reading a post from a reader who is an economics professor and he told me that I was correct. We are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world but what I was leaving out of that sentence was that we are the largest economy in the world. He told me that the true test is not how large our debt is, the true test is what is our nation’s debt is in relation to our Gross Domestic Product. He further wrote, citing the “CIA World Factbook” that the ratio of our debt to GDP is 53.9% and that figure puts us in 38th place in the ranking of countries in the world. He offered several examples. The dubious distinction of first place belongs to Japan whose debt to GDP is a staggering 225.8% and most surprising to me in 20th place was Germany whose debt to GDP was 78.8%.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 18, 2011
U.S. Sleep Walking Into Another Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Terry_Coxon
The rebound from the recent recession is the slowest economic comeback in living memory – so slow that some doubt whether it is happening at all. The recession bottomed (the economy stopped shrinking) in June 2009, so the recovery is now two years old. Here’s how things looked 24 months into recovery from the last four recessions.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Double Dip Recession Facts and Economic Forecasts / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Asha_Bangalore
There is a growing fear that the U.S. economy is likely to experience another recession or a double dip in the quarters ahead. Robert Hall, prior Chairman of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), refers to a double dip as a long recession marked by a brief period of economic growth. He explains further that during a double dip “activity might rise for a period, but not far enough to complete a cycle, then fall again, and finally rise above its original level, only then completing the cycle." The U.S. has not experienced such an event in the post-1950 period (see Chart 1).
Thursday, August 04, 2011
A Double Dip Recession? How Do We Protect Ourselves / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: George_Maniere
Today I am going to do something really amazing. I am going to tell you that in my opinion the U.S. economy has not entered a second recession; it never came out of the first one. Well, before you professional economists start writing me that the Webster’s definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth I will simply say for who? Indeed there are many Americans who have been so economically ravaged by this crisis that they have not lived through a recession - they have endured a depression. A Gallup poll that was released in April (when the DOW was 800 points higher than today’s close) said that 29% of the people polled didn’t care what the definition of a recession was. They said they were in a depression. Add to that, another 26% polled said that they felt they had never come out of the original recession.
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
US Manufacturing Indicative of Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The double dip is one of the worst phenomena of an on-going recession. When an economy double dips, the losers of the first dip who were confident enough to enter into a small recovery are wiped out, thus setting the course for a very long second leg in an economic crisis.
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Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Bill Gross "we are at a tipping point for another recession" / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Bloomberg
Bill Gross spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Carol Massar this afternoon about the debt-ceiling debate and the U.S. economy.
Gross said that the debt-ceiling deal is a “Republican Tea Party victory” and that “we are at a tipping point” in terms of a recession. Excerpts from the interview are below, courtesy of Bloomberg Television.
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Tuesday, August 02, 2011
U.S. Recession is "Real Risk" According to Dow Jones ESI Indicator / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
Further adding to the evidence of a huge US slowdown, a Dow Jones Sentiment Indicator says Return to a Recession is a Real Risk
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Sunday, July 31, 2011
U.S. Economy Operating at Stall Speed, Recession in Our Future? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
The GDP numbers for the second quarter came in, and there is no way to spin them as anything but ugly. And the revisions were worse. We simply have to take a few pages to look at them. And, as I noted last Monday in the Outside the Box, I met with some ten Senators Monday afternoon (as well as Congressmen in the morning), plus a lot of staff. Getting ten Senators in a room for 90-plus minutes is not so often done. I will report in this week's letter about our conversation and my impressions.
Saturday, July 02, 2011
The U.S. Economy Remains Mired In A Long-term Slump / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Whitney
"We have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand." John Maynard Keynes
Black Tuesday. On October 29, 1929, the stock market crashed triggering the worst economic collapse in history, the Great Depression. Thousands of banks and businesses failed, shanty towns sprung up across the country, and 15 million Americans (25% of the workforce) lost their jobs. President Herbert Hoover, who believed the turmoil would be over in a matter of weeks, opposed providing aid to the needy and unemployed. He supported the same policies as his GOP heirs in Congress today who seek to deepen the present crisis by cutting unemployment benefits, slashing fiscal stimulus and balancing the budget on the backs of workers.
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Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Prolonged U.S. Economic Slowdown Underway / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Trader_Mark
While there are many pundits and economists out there making calls, what I've observed from the Economic Cycle Research Institute over the past half dozen years or so has been quite impressive. Whatever quantitative tools they are using, they seem to be creating a very nice mosaic in terms of forecasting the future.
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Fed Won't Admit to the Coming Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Despite what U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in his speech at the International Monetary Conference yesterday (Tuesday), it looks very much like we're headed for a double-dip recession.
Indeed, the economic reports of the last week or so demonstrate that the U.S. job machine was never really jump-started after the Great Recession of 2008-09.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Sputtering U.S. Economy, Look Out Below! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Whitney
The slowdown has begun. The economy has started to sputter and unemployment claims have tipped 400,000 for the last seven weeks. That means new investment is too weak to lower the jobless rate which is presently stuck at 9 percent. Manufacturing--which had been the one bright-spot in the recovery-- has also started to retreat with some areas in the country now contracting. Housing, of course, continues its downward trek putting more pressure on bank balance sheets and plunging more homeowners into negative equity.
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Q2 Economic Contraction Highly Probable / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Tony_Pallotta
Recently I have been discussing the possibility that the US economy is in fact in a period of contraction. I want to revisit that call as I don't loosely throw out such a statement without backing it up with real data. Q1 2011 GDP was 1.77%, a 43% reduction in Q4 2010 GDP of 3.11%. Although Q1 GDP could be revised higher over the next two revisions it did highlight three sources of contraction.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Why Inflation in China Could Lead to Another Global Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
Inflation in China is far more intractable than official headline statistics reveal.
That's potentially bad news for global growth and toppy stock and commodities markets.
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