Category: Global Debt Crisis
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, May 04, 2010
Debt Crisis Triggers Global Crisis of Legitimacy / Politics / Global Debt Crisis
Financial panics are an integral part of capitalism. So are economic recessions. The system generates them and it becomes stronger because of them. Like forest fires, they are painful when they occur, yet without them, the forest could not survive. They impose discipline, punishing the reckless, rewarding the cautious. They do so imperfectly, of course, as at times the reckless are rewarded and the cautious penalized. Political crises — as opposed to normal financial panics — emerge when the reckless appear to be the beneficiaries of the crisis they have caused, while the rest of society bears the burdens of their recklessness. At that point, the crisis ceases to be financial or economic. It becomes political.
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Sunday, May 02, 2010
Sovereign Debt Crisis Dominos Are Lining Up to Collapse / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
Boy, what a week! I’ve been warning about a troubled euro and a building sovereign debt crisis for some time. And the bond and currency market activities this past week are a clear example that the momentum is picking up.
There’s a bumpy road ahead … and not just for Greece.
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Sunday, May 02, 2010
Global Financial Conflagration, Fiat Money Buckling Under Unpayable Debts Pressure / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
America and the world face a financial conflagration of immense proportions. The world of fiat money and massive credit is buckling under the pressure of unpayable debt. Each day the safe haven of gold and silver related assets become more attractive. We ask where else do you go for safety? A conflagration is a fire out of control and that is exactly the conditions the world faces today. The inflationary depression has smoldered for 14 months and it will soon accelerate.
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Sunday, May 02, 2010
Global Debt Crisis Future Public Debt Trajectory Protections / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
There Had to Be a Short
How Should Our Institutions Invest?
The Future Of Public Debt
The Future Public Debt Trajectory
Debt Projections
Everyone and their brother intuitively knows that the current government fiscal deficits in the developed world are unsustainable. They have to be brought under control, but that requires some short-term pain. Today we look at a rather remarkable piece of research from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) on what the fiscal crisis may morph into in the future, how much pain will be needed, and what will happen if various countries stay on their present courses. Some countries could end up paying north of 20% of GDP just on the interest to serve their debt, within just 30 years.
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Sunday, May 02, 2010
Roast the PIIGS, and End the Euro Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
"Mankind differs from the animals only by a little and most people throw that away." ~ Confucius, BC 551-479, Chinese Ethical Teacher, Philosopher
The last meltdown was caused by the financial crisis in the United States, which was triggered by the onset of the housing and mortgage crisis. We now have the potential for a full blown currency crisis to unfold. Greek debt has been reduced to junk status and both Spain and Portugal have had their ratings lowered.
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Sunday, May 02, 2010
Marc Faber Says Time To Kick Greece Out of E.U. / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
Marc faber kick Greece out of eu European Union greek Portugal euro eurozone default bonds imf emf central bank pigs piigs spain italy Ireland downgraded junk
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Saturday, May 01, 2010
European Debt Crisis Spiraling Out of Control, Will Greece Be Europe’s Lehman Brothers? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
The Greek debt crisis now threatens to spiral out of control - in spite of IMF rescue efforts - and the fate of the entire eurozone is at stake.
The Greek debt crisis is serious... deadly serious. Those who still think the situation will turn out okay - that it will "blow over" - are clinging to foolish hopes, just as they have done at great cost in the past.
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Friday, April 30, 2010
Greece Armageddon, Financial Ebola Sweeps Through Global Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
What does the end of the bond market world look like? Something like this …
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Thursday, April 29, 2010
Greece Bond Market Crash, Europe and ETFs / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
When Americans hear about Greece, the first thought that comes to mind is usually “ancient history.” Now Greece is all over the headlines for its financial woes.
But if truth be told, Greece hasn’t done anything different from many other countries, including the U.S.! The government simply spent too much money, the citizens enjoyed too many overly-generous social programs, and eventually the bill came due. Now someone has to pay up — and the Greeks don’t have the cash.
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Thursday, April 29, 2010
Chart Du Jour Greek Drachma vs Euro / Currencies / Global Debt Crisis
Europe's hopes of containing the crisis dimmed as Spain became the third euro-zone nation to be hit with an S&P downgrade in just two days, following steeper cuts on Portugal and Greece.
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Thursday, April 29, 2010
Greece Financial Markets and Economic Collapse Sinking Euro Zone Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
This is a special Outside the Box. I got this letter from my good friend Greg Weldon last night and got permission to pass it on to you. I think it illustrates the problems that the world is facing from the sovereign debt crisis that is building in Europe.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Greece's Bill Is Now Due - And Others Will Be Next, Debt Denial and the Five Stages of Greece / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
The phenomenon of "debt denial" has gripped not only Greece and the eurozone, but the entire roster of rich Western nations. When the smoke finally clears, you'll want to own gold coins...
The eurozone is slowly but surely imploding under an unsustainable debt load. Greece is still center stage, but the woes will soon spread. Ultimately, Greece is the first domino in a long chain of looming debt defaults... and at the end of that chain lies the United States.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Greece Requires Conservatorship / Politics / Global Debt Crisis
In our assessment, Greece should be placed into conservatorship by the European Commission. Greece’s liquidity issues have morphed into a solvency crisis. Greece’s challenges are fiscal, which requires a political solution. Therefore, Greece’s problems cannot be resolved by the European Central Bank (ECB), although ECB policy can affect the dynamics as this crisis evolves.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Greece Driven Into Financial and Economic Crisis / Politics / Global Debt Crisis
Prof. Ingo Schmidt writes: Neoliberal order reigns in the world. Stock markets are recovering from the crash in the fall of 2008. Private banks are no longer weighed down by bad loans that were added to public deficits. The latter were rising anyways because the economic crisis had sent tax revenues on a downward slide. Add further bailout money for financial companies and fiscal stimulus and you get a veritable fiscal crisis of the state.
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Greece Government Bond Market Panic Crash, Yields Hit 18%, Portugal Next? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
It did not take too long for contagion to spread (one day), smack in the face of EU statements that contagion was no risk. Why the EU would put themselves in a position to look so foolish is beyond me. Here is a series of articles to consider.
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Portugal Suffering Greek Debt Contagion / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
Nothing new to long time readers as we've pointed out repeatedly that the newest, and biggest bubble of them all is the government debt bubble. [Feb 5, 2010: Sovereign Risk Chart - Where Would the US Fit in, on Europe's Scale?] In a world fixated only on benefits, and could care less of the costs as long as they are borne by taxpayers, very few seem to care these days. It is now the ethos that whatever the problem, a central bank or government will throw a country's populace under the bus to "solve" it.
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Possible Misunderstandings about Municipalities and their Bonds / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
Problems of state and municipal finance worsen. Governors announce new spending cuts at press conferences but inspire little confidence. The fury of emergency announcements leaves the listener (as well as the governors) in a daze. Research reports offer broad explanations but have left bondholders, as well as employees and local residents, unprepared for discontinuities. In other words, there will be instances when these constituencies will find themselves marched to the slaughterhouse without warning.
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010
The Greek Debt Tragedy From Banks to Sovereigns Back to Banks / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
Back and recovering from my Strategic Investment Conference this weekend (where I decided to give myself permission not to write my usual letter, but I promise I will be back at it this next Friday!) I have spent some time pondering what we learned. It was a fabulous conference. Lacy Hunt, Dr. Gary Shilling, David Rosenberg, Niall Ferguson, Paul McCulley, George Friedman, former Fed Senior Economist Jason Cummins (who is now Chief Economist for Brevan Howard, the largest European hedge fund, and who was quite impressive), Jon Sundt of Altegris, and your humble analyst were all in top form. I must admit with a little pride that I think this is the finest speaker lineup for ANY investment conference anywhere. We were given a lot to think about.
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Sunday, April 25, 2010
Greek Debt Crisis: Lehman 2.0? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
As if Greece did not already have enough problems. The market was already jolted by the Goldman SEC case. Then, it was the cloud of volcanic ash from Iceland postponed a key meeting with European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) officials on aid for the country.
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Friday, April 23, 2010
Greek Bond Market Crash, Greece Budget Deficit Worse Than Feared / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
With Thursday's admission that Greece's budget gap is worse than expected, CDS rates on Greek debt rose to new highs, and Greek bond crashed.
Charts follow a discussion of articles in the news.