Category: GeoPolitics
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Wednesday, June 30, 2010
The G-20 Power Grab Accelerates / Politics / GeoPolitics
The G-8 meeting (Friday and Saturday) and the G-20 meeting (Saturday and Sunday) that were held in Canada provided the world's major political leaders a forum to promise the usual grab-bag of goodies that governments are clearly incapable of providing: (1) economic growth, meaning no double-dip recession; (2) austerity spending programs that are politically sustainable; (3) reductions in deficit spending by 50%, no later than 2013; (4) a percentage increase in GDP to match any increase in debt by 2016. Yet few if any of the leaders who promised all this will be in office in 2016. There is no way that they can assure the public that they can deliver any of these benefits.
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Germany and Russia Move Closer / Politics / GeoPolitics
German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle will brief French and Polish officials on a joint proposal for Russian-European “cooperation on security,” according to a statement from Westerwelle’s spokesman on Monday. The proposal emerged out of talks between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev earlier in June and is based on a draft Russia drew up in 2008. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will be present at the meeting. Peschke said, “We want to further elaborate and discuss it within the triangle [i.e., France, Germany and Poland] in the presence of the Russian foreign minister.”
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Friday, June 18, 2010
Behind and Beyond The Sinking of The South Korean Cheonan / Politics / GeoPolitics
INCIDENT: Thousands rallied in Seoul in early June to protest perceived North Korean threats against their country after the severing of bilateral relations following the sinking of a South Korea naval corvette in which 46 sailors died. Despite this, South Korean officials on 8 June said they would not seek any new sanctions against Pyongyang.
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Tuesday, June 15, 2010
The Kyrgyzstan Crisis and the Russian Dilemma / Politics / GeoPolitics
Peter Zeihan writes: STRATFOR often discusses how Russia is on a bit of a roll. The U.S. distraction in the Middle East has offered Russia a golden opportunity to re-establish its spheres of influence in the region, steadily expanding the Russian zone of control into a shape that is eerily reminiscent of the old Soviet Union. Since 2005, when this process began, Russia has clearly reasserted itself as the dominant power in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Ukraine, and has intimidated places like Georgia and Turkmenistan into a sort of silent acquiescence.
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Monday, June 14, 2010
Global Financial Crisis Could Lead to World War III / Politics / GeoPolitics
You know where I stand on just about all the markets. And not much has changed in them, or my views, since I spoke with you in my column last week, or even via my video update last Thursday.
So today I want to change things up a bit, and address a very important topic. One that scares the heck out of me, quite frankly … and one that I know many people are thinking about.
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Friday, June 04, 2010
China Creates Pirate Copy of Russia’s Su-33 Fighter Jet / Politics / GeoPolitics
China’s Shenyang Aircraft Corporation created a copy of a Russian deck-based Su-33 fighter jet. The Chinese model of the aircraft was called J-15, Interfax reports with reference to the May issue of the Kanwa Asian Defence military publication.
The Chinese fighter jet is based on the Soviet T10K training aircraft, which China received from Ukraine. Chinese engineers found it very difficult to solve the problem of folding wings of deck-based fighter jets. Now the problem has been solved.
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Monday, May 31, 2010
Did an U.S. Mine Sink the South Korean Ship? / Politics / GeoPolitics
Yoichi Shimatsu writes: BEIJING - South Korean Prime Minister Lee Myung-bak has claimed "overwhelming evidence" that a North Korean torpedo sank the corvette Cheonan on March 26, killing 46 sailors. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton claimed that there’s "overwhelming evidence" in favor of the theory that North Korea sank the South Korean Navy warship Cheonan. But the articles of proof presented so far by military investigators to an official inquiry board have been scanty and inconsistent.
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Monday, May 31, 2010
The Korean Crisis Breaking News, Cui Bono? / Politics / GeoPolitics
The alleged North Korean sinking of a South Korean boat in March has dramatically escalated tensions between north and south Korea. It has also caused a reversal of a planned Japanese government push to close the US military base on Okinawa. The major question in the bizarre affair is Cui Bono?
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Sunday, May 30, 2010
Kyrgyzstan’s ‘Roza Revolution’—Cui Bono? Geopolitics of Central Asia / Politics / GeoPolitics
Part I: Kyrgyzstan as a Geopolitical Pivot
The remote Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan is what Britain’s Halford Mackinder might call a geopolitical ‘pivot’—a land that, owing to its geographical characteristics, holds a pivotal position in Great Power rivalries.
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Sunday, May 30, 2010
North Korea Crisis and the World Economy / Politics / GeoPolitics
The reader should understand that this analyst is neither a maverick nor an agitator. All he is interested in is “The Truth”. Investor confidence across the Western Markets appears to him to be on the brink of collapse – an outcome which he has recognized for some years was a possibility based on the emerging facts. He is on record as having made consistent references to this possibility in his various blogs over a period of several years. He is also on record as having been focusing on what might be done by society’s leaders to extricate society from a dysfunctional world economy, should a collapse in world markets materialize.
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Friday, May 07, 2010
Kyrgyzstan Today: The New Administration’s Pressing Problems / Politics / GeoPolitics
Kyrgyzstan’s interim government, having toppled the corrupt regime of former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in Bishkek on April 7-8, faces many daunting challenges, from the economy gutted by Bakiyev’s insiders to reestablishing security in the country. It is in the interest of the three major outside players there – Russia, U.S. and China, to assist Otumbayeva’s administration, but it seems problematic at this point whether they will be able to lay aside their traditional rivalry to do so. Such being the case, it would seem that Kyrgyzstan faces a long, hot summer.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Western Civilization is Doomed / Politics / GeoPolitics
"Peace cannot be achieved through violence, it can only be attained through understanding." Ralph Waldo Emerson
When I was a boy, I knew a man who repaired clocks and watches as a hobby. (Quartz watches had not yet been invented.) I often sat for hours in utter fascination watching him work. Then one day, I asked, "Frank, how do you know how to do that?" He answered, "Johnny, what man has done, man can do." Therein lies the fallacy of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Science and technology is a Pandora's Box. Once opened by one man, company, or country, what is emitted soon becomes everyone's.
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Thursday, April 22, 2010
Nazarbayev’s Successful Diplomacy in Kyrgyzstan Signals Deeper Strategic Shifts / Politics / GeoPolitics
The recent crisis and instability in Kyrgyzstan, highlighted the fragility of security and the potential weakness of the political systems throughout the region and exposed new dimensions in the conduct of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy that may well prove pivotal for US energy interests in the Caspian Sea region. These complexities, often disguised or downplayed by the national governments in the region, attest to the deep political fault lines running through Eurasia as well as the potential for events in one state to ignite potential cross-border discontent and instability elsewhere.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Revolution in Central Asia: Who's Next? / Politics / GeoPolitics
On April 7, 2010 the President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev fled the capital city of Bishkek that was under a state of emergency after antigovernment protesters started clashing with security forces following incidents that started in the Northern city of Talas, close to the Kazakhstan border. By the end of April 7, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty was reporting 40 dead and 400 wounded, numbers that have over doubled since. In this context, one can only wonder which country in Central Asia could be next, if any, and which Central Asian leader could find himself out of a job and possibly on an airplane.
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Monday, April 19, 2010
Moscow Ascending, How Turkey’s New Axis With Russia Affects U.S. Interests / Politics / GeoPolitics
We have, in the past year, entered an entirely new dynamic in Eastern Mediterranean and South-East European strategic affairs. We are in a period and a region in which Russia, not the West, is taking the key initiatives and has much of the advantage. This is particularly significant given that Russian policymaking receives scant attention in US and other Western media, and remains as opaque to Western analysts as it was during the Cold War era when Russia was veiled by an Iron Curtain. At least during the Cold War, the West threw its best intellects into attempting to understand Russia and the Soviet Union.
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Friday, April 16, 2010
Kyrgyzstan, Business, Corruption and the U.S. Manas Airbase / Politics / GeoPolitics
Kyrgyzstan’s mass anti-government protests last week were essentially the culmination of more than a decade of disillusionment and dissatisfaction that accumulated in the nation’s political, economic and social spheres from the period of Akayev to his successor Kurmanbek Bakiyev, with virtually every Kyrgyz concerned about rising prices and falling standards of living, both issues of little concern and dimly understood in Washington.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 15, 2010
The Aftermath of the Kyrgyzstan Revolution - The Lesser Players / Politics / GeoPolitics
The recent unrest in Kyrgyzstan has largely been portrayed as an epic clash between U.S. and Russian interests.
That said, interest in events in Bishkek extend far beyond Kyrgyzstan throughout the regional and one should expect the following voices to add their concerns as the situation evolves. While largely overlooked by media coverage, their influence could be a significant factor in both interim and long-term solutions that emerge to Kyrgyzstan’s recent upheavals.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
The Truth Behind The Recent Unrest in Kyrgyzstan / Politics / GeoPolitics
The following article is the first of three examining the recent unrest in Kyrgyzstan and its implications. Part 2 tomorrow will deal with the regional fallout from the “Tulip Revolution V2.0” and Part 3 will examine in detail Washington’s highest priority in Kyrgyzstan - its ongoing access to the Manas Transit Center airbase.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Kyrgyzstan Revolution and the Russian Resurgence / Politics / GeoPolitics
Lauren Goodrich writes: This past week saw another key success in Russia’s resurgence in former Soviet territory when pro-Russian forces took control of Kyrgyzstan.
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Saturday, April 10, 2010
U.S. Russian Economic Relations Near Failure / Politics / GeoPolitics
President Dmitry Medvedev hopes to boost the development of the bilateral economic cooperation between Russia and the USA during his forthcoming visit to the United States in summer.
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