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Category: GeoPolitics

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Politics

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Trump’s Indecision about North Korea May Cost Him Allies in Asia Pacific / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : China’s 19th National Congress of the Communist Party is getting a lot of attention right now. In the opening ceremony, President Xi Jinping heralded the beginning of a new era in China. Surprisingly, he was also very honest about the inadequacy of his first term.

Although the congress will continue into this week, most of the major events have already taken place.

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Politics

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Turning Point Nations On The Stage / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Many are the turning points with individual nations, once firmly in the Western alliance camp, but no longer. They are flipping eastward or in the case of China cutting the major cords. The Shanghai developments are by far the most important in the financial setting. The Petro-Dollar is seeing its last months after a 43-year reign as defacto standard. Its retirement will begin in the East, then spread to the decaying loyal Western nations. The entire geopolitical chessboard is becoming more aligned with the Eurasian Trade Zone, one nation after another. Its cornerstones are Russia, China, and increasingly Iran. It has gathered some Eastern European countries like Turkey, and will gather more. It has pursued the Middle East oil monarchies, and will succeed in lassoing them into the zone corral. Whether they deploy financial connections, or trade ties, or security links, these nations no longer see the United States and British (who walk the American dog with a monetary leash) as the leading global players any longer. The leaders are China with its financial and industrial might and Russia with its energy and commodity strength.

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Politics

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Catalonia, Kurdistan, Patriotism, Flags and Referendums / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

‘Tis the jolly time of elections, referendums, flags and other democracy-related issues. They are all linked in some way or another, even if that’s not always obvious. Elections, in New Zealand and Germany this weekend, referendums in Catalonia and Kurdistan the coming week, a looming Party Congress in China, quarrels about a flag in the US and then there’s always Brexit.

About China: the Congress is only in October, Xi Jinping looks sure to broaden his powers even more, and it ain’t all that democratic, but we should still follow it, if only because party officials will be either demoted or promoted, and some of them govern more people than most kings, queens, presidents and prime ministers. They say everything’s bigger in Texas, but in China everything really is. Including debt.

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Politics

Monday, September 18, 2017

The Sum of Risks – Global, Strategic, Political, and Financial / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Raymond_Matison

Never before, not since the founding of America even including our Civil War of the 1860’s, not in the history of the entire world has a confluence of risks risen and coalesced to the degree that makes the next few years the most dangerous on this planet since monkeys evolved to walking upright. Immense risks are prevalent in America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia – essentially covering most of our globe. 

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Politics

Thursday, August 03, 2017

Here’s Why The US Sanctions Against Russia Threaten Germany’s Interests / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

By Antonia Colibasanu : The US House of Representatives has passed a bill to renew and expand sanctions against Russia that were imposed after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The bill, however, could also have a negative impact on some European energy projects that are linked to Russian companies.

Since the initial bill was first approved by the Senate on June 15, the European Union has been lobbying US lawmakers to revise the proposed legislation and reduce its effects on third-party countries.

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Politics

Thursday, July 27, 2017

China May Not Have Stopped North Korea’s Nuclear Program Deliberately / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The United States and China met to discuss trade issues.

The meeting ended without agreement on anything. The obligatory joint press conference after the talks, where everyone pretends that everything was fine, was canceled.

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Politics

Monday, May 29, 2017

An Invisible Curtain Falls Between Russia and the West / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: STRATFOR

By Jon Sather : The Cold War ended over 25 years ago, but the lingering Soviet specter continues to haunt the Western world. Since the election of Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2000, a new conflict has been brewing, this time in cyberspace. And on a battlefield monopolized by the United States and Russia, the historical threats of nuclear war, ambitions of global dominance and aspirations of containing the enemy may not be the relics of the past we imagine them to be.

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Politics

Friday, May 19, 2017

Here’s Why Trump Won’t Pursue His Pledged Foreign Policy / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : For all the tumult that has defined President Donald Trump’s domestic policy, his foreign policy is relatively stable.

There are some notable differences, but what went on before is pretty much what is going on now—a surprise given the expectations.

Trump promised to disengage from burdensome commitments to other countries, shifting the risks and costs of the security of allies away from the United States.

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Politics

Tuesday, May 02, 2017

Who Are the World’s Biggest Military Spenders, Really? / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

The conventional narrative is that the world is threatened by the assertive China and Russia. The inconvenient narrative is that China is modernizing, while US priorities are misguided, Dan Steinbock says.

When China recently launched its first domestically built aircraft carrier, New York Times saw it as “a milestone in President Xi Jinping’s drive to extend China’s military reach far beyond its shores.” First reports surfaced in early 2016, when Washington Post headlined, “By 2030, South China Sea will be ‘virtually a Chinese lake’.”
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Politics

Sunday, April 09, 2017

Russia and Iran Threaten Retaliation Against Further US Syria Aggression / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Stephen_Lendman

Russia and Iran accused Washington of crossing unacceptable red lines in attacking Syria - jointly saying they’ll respond to further US aggression, according to Reuters.

A joint statement published by the Ilam al Harbi media outlet said “(w)hat America waged in an aggression on Syria is a crossing of red lines.”

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Politics

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Will Washington Risk WW3 to Block an Emerging EU-Russia Superstate / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Mike_Whitney

The relentless demonization of Vladimir Putin is just one part of Washington’s multi-pronged strategy to roll-back Russian power in Central Asia and extinguish Putin’s dream of a “Greater Europe”. Along with the attempt to smear the Russian president as a “KGB thug” and “dictator”, the media has also alleged that Moscow intervened in the US presidential elections and that Russia is a serial aggressor that poses a growing threat to European and US national security. The media onslaught, which has greatly intensified since the election of Donald Trump in November 2016, has been accompanied by harsh economic sanctions, asymmetrical attacks on Russia’s markets and currency, the arming and training of Russian adversaries in Ukraine and Syria, the calculated suppression of oil prices, and a heavy-handed effort to sabotage Russia’s business relations in Europe.  In short, Washington is doing everything in its power to prevent Russia and Europe from merging into the world’s biggest free trade zone that will be the center of global growth and prosperity for the next century.

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Politics

Friday, March 24, 2017

Maps Of Past Empires That Can Tell Us About The Future / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB SHAPIRO : Studying history has little practical utility in averting past outcomes. We are doomed to repeat history whether we know it or not.

The value in knowing history is not that one might prevent its recurrence. Its value is that it allows you to identify those things that don’t change and that shape events… no matter the year on the calendar.

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Politics

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

In Japan, Russia and China Find Common Ground / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: STRATFOR

For the first time in three years, Russia and Japan have revived an avenue of negotiation that had stalled in the face of enduring tension between the two nations. Foreign and defense ministers from both countries met in Tokyo on Monday to hold 2+2 talks on security issues in the Asia-Pacific region. As expected, Japan took the opportunity to question Russia's recent attempts to bolster its defenses on the southern Kuril Islands, to which Tokyo has long laid claim. Russia fired back with its own objections to Japan's desire to build up its ballistic missile defenses as North Korea pushes ahead with its nuclear program.

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Politics

Sunday, March 12, 2017

The Paradoxical Rivalry of US and China for Industrial Innovation / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

By the early 2020s, rivalry for industrial innovation will accelerate between the U.S. and China. Ironically, the Trump White House has opted for a poor-economy industrial policy, whereas China has a rich-economy policy. The former seeks past glory; the latter cannot wait to get to the future.
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Politics

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Maps That Show The US’ Strategy In Asia-Pacific / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : Secretary of Defense James Mattis recently wrapped up his first international trip whose purpose was to “listen to the concerns of South Korean and Japanese leaders.”

The two countries are crucial US allies in Asia, and both face serious threats in their near abroad.

Discussing security threats, though, wasn’t the main goal of Mattis’s trip. He was there to assure both countries that the Trump administration will not abandon the US alliance structure in the Pacific.

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Politics

Thursday, February 09, 2017

The Leading Power In East Asia Will Be Japan—Not China / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : By 2040, Japan will rise as East Asia’s leading power. This is one of our most controversial forecasts at Geopolitical Futures.

Our readers know that GPF is bearish on China. And while some may disagree on that point, they usually see that the reasoning is sound. China will face serious problems in coming years… problems that will strain the Communist Party’s rule. (I write about this topic extensively in This Week in Geopoliticssubscribe here for free.)

Japan, though, seems a bridge too far. Its population is less than a tenth of China’s size (and it’s not just aging… it’s shrinking). Japan also has a debt-to-GDP ratio over 229%.

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Politics

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Trump’s “Great Game”: Playing Russia Against China?  / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

Trump has pledged to reset the White House policies on “America First” basis. In Asia, it may mean an effort to balance with Russia against China – the reverse of US China approach in the 1970s.

After inauguration, Donald Trump will move from Trump Plaza in mid-Manhattan to White House in Washington, where he will enjoy extraordinary execution power. Today, Republicans will control the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

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Politics

Monday, January 16, 2017

The Story of the U.S. Regime Change Plan in the Philippines / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

As long-needed economic reforms are taking off in the Philippines, regime change plans have been prepared in the US State Department against a democratically-elected president who enjoys very high popular support.      

During the Philippine presidential campaigns in spring 2016, U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg sided visibly with anti-Duterte forces, which led to several high-profile confrontations. After the controversial Ambassador left the Philippines, he wrote a “blueprint to undermine Duterte within 18 months.” Last month, the plan was leaked to The Manila Times, the oldest English-language daily in the Philippines.

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Politics

Sunday, January 15, 2017

One China Policy Nonnegotiable, Says Beijing / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Stephen_Lendman

The one China policy was first mentioned in the Shanghai Communique on February 28, 1972 during Nixon’s visit to China - stressing the importance for both countries to normalize relations.

On January 1, 1979, the Joint Communique on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations agreed to by Jimmy Carter and Deng Xiaoping formally established bilateral relations, ending official recognition of Taiwan, announced by Carter in December 1978.

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Politics

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Stratfor 2017 Annual Global Forecast / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: STRATFOR

The convulsions to come in 2017 are the political manifestations of much deeper forces in play. In much of the developed world, the trend of aging demographics and declining productivity is layered with technological innovation and the labor displacement that comes with it. China's economic slowdown and its ongoing evolution compound this dynamic. At the same time the world is trying to cope with reduced Chinese demand after decades of record growth, China is also slowly but surely moving its own economy up the value chain to produce and assemble many of the inputs it once imported, with the intent of increasingly selling to itself. All these forces combined will have a dramatic and enduring impact on the global economy and ultimately on the shape of the international system for decades to come.

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