Category: Russia
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, December 05, 2016
Russia's Path to Another Resurgence / Politics / Russia
By: STRATFOR
After enduring three years of a foundering economy and feuds with the West, things may be looking up for Russia. The Brexit vote in June exposed the deep discord in the European Union, giving Moscow a glimmer of hope that dissenting member states might break the bloc's consensus on its sanctions against Russia in a future vote on their renewal. Though EU members decided unanimously in July to extend the measures, upcoming elections on the Continent could undermine the bloc's unity. In the United States, meanwhile, Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election has opened a potential path to warmer relations between the United States and Russia, and perhaps even an end to Washington's sanctions on Moscow. The turning political tides in Brussels and Washington could give the Kremlin the leeway to increase its influence in the former Soviet Union, leading the countries in Russia's periphery to re-evaluate their foreign policy positions.
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
Putin’s Ukraine Strategy Could Lay the Groundwork for War / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are growing. According to the Russians, a special operations team from Ukraine attacked Crimea in August. The Ukrainians denied the claim. The Russians appeared to be moving forces around in Crimea and increasing their number and posture.
There have been reports of Russian troop buildups east of their border with Ukraine. There is also an unconfirmed report of Russian troops deploying in pro-Russian, rebel-held territory inside Ukraine. The Russians have done nothing to tamp down tensions.
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Thursday, August 25, 2016
Why Putin Might Be on His Way Out / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Russian President Vladimir Putin recently did three very interesting things.
First, he fired his long-time aide and chief of staff, Sergei Ivanov, and moved him to a lower position. A few weeks earlier, Putin fired at least three regional governors and replaced them with his personal bodyguards.
Removing that many governors is a bit odd. Replacing them with bodyguards is very odd. Then removing someone like Ivanov is extremely odd.
Second, Russia raised pressure on Ukraine. The Russians claimed that Ukrainian special forces attacked Russian-held Crimea. They announced that they sent S-400 anti-air missiles to Crimea. With a 250-mile range, these missiles can reach deep into Ukraine.
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Sunday, July 24, 2016
Russia: Tensions, Turmoil, and Western Hubris / Politics / Russia
By: Andy_Sutton
"The 3 Big Stories NOT Being Covered – PART 1” With Graham Mehl. Anyone who has read this publication for any length of time knows that topics range from mainstream to the totally uncovered stories. As we look out not just across the economic landscape, but across the world in general, we are seeing an alarming increase of serious situations that are receiving little or no coverage at all from the western media. Thankfully there are hundreds if not thousands of reliable people who chip in with analysis and stories of their own on some of these topics.
Sunday, March 20, 2016
Even As Russians Withdraw, Their Legacy in Syria Remains / Politics / Russia
By: STRATFOR
As the departure of Russian forces from Syria announced March 14 continues, evidence of construction at Russia's main air base in the country demonstrates Moscow’s intention to maintain a military presence there. Imagery dated March 17 acquired by Stratfor of the Bassel al Assad air base in Latakia province and the naval base at Tartus highlights the ongoing Russian drawdown of its forces in Syria that Moscow contends will be largely completed by March 20.
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Russian Stock Market Great Long Term Buy: Inflation Down 50% YOY / Stock-Markets / Russia
By: Sol_Palha
For a long time, we have been stating that the Sell-off in both the Ruble and the Russian stock market provided the astute investors with a great long-term buying opportunity. Well, This chart proves that things are getting better and that the Sanctions that the West imposed on Russia at the behest of the America was a stupid idea, but more importantly, it has made Russia even stronger. The chart below is proof of this; inflation is down over 50% year over year. Translation things must be getting better.
Thursday, February 04, 2016
Putin Cries Dyadya (Uncle), Is Saudi Arabia Listening? / Commodities / Russia
By: OilPrice_Com
In recent days, signs of a possible breakthrough in the year-long stand-off between Russia and Saudi Arabia on crude production strategy have emerged. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's dominant member, has long insisted OPEC (read Saudi Arabia) would not reduce output to balance supply and demand absent corresponding cuts from non-OPEC members (read Russia), while Russia has consistently insisted harsh climactic conditions prevent Russian producers from reducing output and in any case Russia insists it could withstand low prices as well as any other country.
Saturday, October 10, 2015
Putin’s “Endgame” in Syria / Politics / Russia
By: Mike_Whitney
Russia doesn’t want to fight a war with Turkey, so Russian generals devised a simple, but effective plan to discourage Turkey from taking any action that could lead to a clash between the two nations.
Last week, Russian warplanes intruded into Turkish airspace twice. Both incidents caused consternation in Ankara and send Turkish leaders into a furor. On both occasions, officials in Moscow politely apologized for the incursions claiming they were unintentional (“navigational errors”) and that they would try to avoid similar intrusions in the future.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
Why is Russia Destroying Its Food? / Politics / Russia
By: STRATFOR
Forecast
- A Kremlin crackdown on food imports that violate Russian sanctions will continue to draw criticism throughout Russia.
- If the Kremlin continues with its crackdown, protests will expand.
- To limit the backlash, Moscow may opt for sporadic crackdowns rather than systematic enforcement of food sanctions.
Thursday, April 16, 2015
Why Russia Will Send More Troops to Central Asia / Politics / Russia
By: STRATFOR
Russia is making a concerted effort to increase its military and security presence throughout Central Asia, just not for the reasons it would have you think. Though the Kremlin is concerned with the threat of spillover violence from Islamist militancy in Afghanistan — its purported motive for deploying more troops — it is far more alarmed by what it sees as Chinese and Western encroachment into lands over which it has long held sway. It is this concern that will shape Moscow's behavior in Central Asia in the years to come.
Thursday, March 19, 2015
Russia Targets NATO With New Military Exercises / Politics / Russia
By: STRATFOR
Russian military exercises, the latest in a series across the country, have taken on a threatening posture. While the most recent installment is not the largest exercise Russia has conducted, the areas involved and the forces included seem to have been deliberately chosen to send a warning to NATO; the exercise itself seems to simulate a full-scale confrontation with NATO through the forward deployment of nuclear armed submarines, theater ballistic missiles and strategic bomber aircraft. Strategic weapon systems, including assets that are part of Russia's nuclear capabilities, have also been deployed to locations near NATO's borders.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Can Putin Survive? / Politics / Russia
By: STRATFOR
George Friedman writes: There is a general view that Vladimir Putin governs the Russian Federation as a dictator, that he has defeated and intimidated his opponents and that he has marshaled a powerful threat to surrounding countries. This is a reasonable view, but perhaps it should be re-evaluated in the context of recent events.
Monday, February 16, 2015
The Russian Banking Crisis / Interest-Rates / Russia
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We have shown so far that all ruble crises were accompanied by a strong U.S. dollar and low oil prices. We have concluded that Russia's current problems resemble those from 1998, though possibly even more severe than seventeen years ago, because the biggest country in the world is cut off from the international funding. But what about the following banking crisis in Russia?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Will the 1998 Russian Financial Meltdown Repeat Itself? / Stock-Markets / Russia
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
History never repeats itself exactly, but many similarities between the past and the current Russian crisis suggest that the eastern bear could significantly falter in the future:
- The collapse of the ruble and its scope (Graph 2). The ruble lost over two thirds of its value in 1998. In 2014 it has lost more than half of its value against the dollar. Also the ruble’s unusual one-day falls are similar: Russian currency plunged 22 percent December 15 and 16, 2014 -an echo of the 27 percent fall August 17, 1998.
Tuesday, February 03, 2015
The Short Story of Past Russian Financial Crises / Currencies / Russia
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In the last Market Overview we wrote about falling commodity prices and problems of emerging markets resulting from the strong U.S. dollar. In this edition we would like to focus on the Russian economy, which suffers from both problems. Declines in oil prices erase a great deal of government revenue, while at the same time the rise in the U.S. dollar to ruble exchange rate threatens the solvency of indebted banks and companies. Because Russia’s financial instability can affect other markets that lend money to Russian companies, we have to analyze what the wounded eastern bear could really mean to the global economy and gold market. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 22, 2015
Russia's Plans for Arctic Supremacy / Politics / Russia
By: STRATFOR
Although the crisis in Ukraine continues to focus attention on Russia's western border, Moscow is seeking to exploit a more lucrative prize along its vast northern frontage: the Arctic Circle. Melting ice has opened up new transit routes and revealed previously inaccessible oil and mineral deposits. Facing a year of harsh economic constraints, securing exploitable energy reserves remains a top priority for Moscow. The planned militarization of the Arctic is already underway, and funding is secured through 2015 (the Ministry of Defense was the only Kremlin ministry not to be curtailed in the most recent budget.) With Russia aiming to consolidate its strength by the end of the year, surrounding countries are already reassessing their positions in the face of an overwhelming regional force.
Thursday, January 15, 2015
What About the Russian Ruble? / Currencies / Russia
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The Russian ruble ended 2014 in bad shape. Not as bad as the Ukrainian hryvnia or the Venezuelan bolivar, but bad, nevertheless. For most of 2014, Russia faced an ever-increasing ratcheting up of economic sanctions. These set the stage for what was to come late in the year: the collapse of oil prices and the announcement on November 10th that the ruble would be allowed to float. When combined, these three ingredients created a perfect storm.
Wednesday, January 07, 2015
Oil Price Blowback - Is Putin Creating a New World Order? / Politics / Russia
By: Mike_Whitney
It’s hard to know which country is going to suffer the most from falling oil prices. Up to now, of course, Russia, Iran and Venezuela have taken the biggest hit, but that will probably change as time goes on. What the Obama administration should be worried about is the second-order effects that will eventually show up in terms of higher unemployment, market volatility, and wobbly bank balance sheets. That’s where the real damage is going to crop up because that’s where red ink and bad loans can metastasize into a full-blown financial crisis. Check out this blurb from Nick Cunningham at Oilprice.com and you’ll see what I mean:
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Russia's SWIFT Settlement Alternative / Politics / Russia
By: BATR
The SWIFT System is an integral part of a communication process that assists payment and clearing of financial transactions. The Corporate-to-Bank site defines it in the following manner and provides several examples of Payment, Clearing and Settlement Systems.
“The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, Societe Cooperative a Responsabilite Limitee (limited co-operative society) (“SWIFT”) is a member-owned co-operative. SWIFT provides a telecommunication platform for the exchange of standardized financial messages between financial institutions and corporations. SWIFT is neither a payment system nor a settlement system though the SWIFT messaging standard is used in many payment and settlement systems. SWIFT’s customers include banks, market infrastructures, broker-dealers, corporates, custodians, and investment managers. SWIFT is subject to oversight by the central banks of the Group of Ten countries.”
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Friday, December 26, 2014
Putin: It Is Time to Play Your Ace in the Hole / Politics / Russia
By: Ron_Holland
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done.
"The Gambler" by Kenny Rogers
The entire world is watching Putin play poker with the Western politicians lead by Obama and followed by Washington quislings in London, Brussels and Berlin. America's goal since the end of the Cold War has been to weaken by financial, economic and, if necessary, military means any real competition to its global financial and resource domination through the petrodollar and dollar world reserve currency status.
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