Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 5th March 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Mar 05, 2009 - 07:48 AM GMT

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1052.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1173.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1122.52. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1173.80. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1062.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 1052.76. The March NASDAQ 100 was down 8.25 pts. at 1092.75 as of 5:51 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If March extends the decline, support crossing at 655.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 778.11 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 733.06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 778.11.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 682.00. Second support is support crossing at 655.00. The March S&P 500 Index was down 12.20 pts. at 696.20 as of 5:52 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were higher due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 126-12. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, the 62% retracement level of the November- December rally crossing at 122-22 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 130-12 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 126-08. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-28. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 124-11. Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 122-22.

ENERGY MARKETS
April crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. If April extends Wednesday's rally, February's high crossing at 47.99 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 39.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 45.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 47.99. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 42.32. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 39.44.

April heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 107.35 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 130.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.76. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 130.32. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 114.34. Second support is February's low crossing at 113.59.

April unleaded gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 141.52 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of this winter's trading range. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 128.92 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 139.43. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 140.61. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128.92. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 127.00.

April Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.340 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If April renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.390 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.340. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4.922. First support is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 4.173. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 3.916.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a double top with November's high might have been posted with Wednesday's high. If March extends this winter's rally, November's high crossing at 89.74 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 85.81 are needed to confirm that the rally off December's low has come to an end. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 89.71. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 88.14. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.42.

The March Euro was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 123.630 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 129.890 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 126.899. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.442. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 124.560. Second support is November's low crossing at 123.630.

The March British Pound was lower overnight hinting that the two-day short covering bounce off Monday's low might have come to an end. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, January's low crossing at 1.3492 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.4660 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4260. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4356. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3990. Second support is January low crossing at 1.3492.

The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level crossing at .8370 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at .8728 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8557. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8570. First support is the reaction low crossing at .8416. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at .8370.

The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline, December's low crossing at 76.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.08. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.73. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 77.09. Second support is December's low crossing at 76.93.

The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at .10058. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at .9751 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10588 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10282. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10558. First support is the overnight low crossing at .10032. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .9751.

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PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 886.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 949.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20- day moving average crossing at 944.40. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 949.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 900.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 886.70.

May silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If May extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October- February rally crossing at 12.358 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.499 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.488. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.499. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 12.430. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 12.358.

May copper was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. If May extends this week's rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 192.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.67 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 173.70. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 192.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.67. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 147.70.

FOOD & FIBER
May coffee closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends Monday's decline, December's low crossing at 10.500 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.091 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.423 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

May cocoa closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday and above the 62% retracement level of the October-February crossing at 22.95 as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold diverging but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends Monday's decline, the 75% retracement level of the October-February crossing at 21.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.44 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

May sugar closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.28 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish warning bulls to use caution before going long too soon. If May extends this winter's rally, fib resistance crossing at 13.98 is the next upside target.

May cotton closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, November's low crossing at 40.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.56 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

May corn was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. A stronger Dollar along with weakness in the energy markets were the driving factors behind the overnight decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above last week's high crossing at 3.80 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.31 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4. Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 3.80 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.44 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 3.31 1/4.

May wheat was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 4.84 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.28. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.98 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.84 1/2.

May wheat closed up 21 1/4-cents at 5.23.

May wheat gapped up and closed above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/4 on Wednesday signaling that a short-term low has likely been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that additional strength is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38 3/4 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this year's decline, December's low crossing at 4.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.26. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.99. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.87.

May Minneapolis wheat was steady overnight as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.03 3/4. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.15 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.72 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.15 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.21 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.87 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.72 3/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
May soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.69 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. However, it will take closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.17 1/4 to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December- January rally crossing at 8.21 3/4 is the next downside target.

May soybean meal was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally but remains above the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 259.10. The low-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 248.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 267.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. However, it will take closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 282.20 to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

May soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Overnight weakness in the energy markets pressured soybean oil prices. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews last month's decline, December's low crossing at 28.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 32.57 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 31.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.92. First support is Monday's low crossing at 30.10. Second support is February's low crossing at 29.88.

LIVESTOCK
April hogs closed up $1.47 at $62.32.

April hogs gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday confirming yesterday's breakout above the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 63.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 59.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 62.70. Second resistance is gap resistance crossing at 63.35. First support is today's gap crossing at 61.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.62.

May bellies closed up $3.00 at $81.55.

May bellies closed limit up and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.99 on Wednesday confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 83.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.43 would confirm that a top has been posted.

April cattle closed up $0.43 at 84.65.

April cattle closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends Monday's decline, February's low crossing at 82.40 is the next downside target. If April renews last week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 86.90 is the next upside target.

April feeder cattle closed up $1.05 at $93.85.

April Feeder cattle gapped up and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.60 on Wednesday. Profit taking tempered early gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends last week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 95.25 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's gap crossing at 91.90 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

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