Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 4th February 2009
Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Feb 04, 2009 - 07:59 AM GMTBy: INO
The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Tuesday's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1195.53 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1244.75 is the next upside target.
Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1153.50 would open the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 1132.00 later this winter. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1217.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1244.75. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1192.10. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 1153.50. The March NASDAQ 100 was down 2.00 pts. at 1205.75 as of 5:51 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The March S&P 500 index was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 847.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 875.50 are needed to renew the rally off January's low. If March extends last week's decline, January's low crossing at 797.00 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 834.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 847.25. First support is Monday's low crossing at 806.40. Second support is January's low crossing at 797.00. The March S&P 500 Index was up 0.40 pts. at 831.90 as of 5:55 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend Tuesday's decline but remain above support marked by the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 126-12. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 122-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-17 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128-17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-17. First support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 126-12. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 126-09.
ENERGY MARKETS
March crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews January's decline, December's low crossing at 38.00 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 48.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the early-January high crossing at 54.74 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.49. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.40. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 39.65. Second support is January's low crossing at 39.11.
March heating oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews January's decline, December's low crossing at 123.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 148.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 138.49. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.81. First support is January's low crossing at 130.39. Second support is December's low crossing at 123.96.
March unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 106.80 is the next downside target. Closes below January's low would confirm a downside breakout of the current trading range while opening the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 87.08 later this winter. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 129.90 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current trading range. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.33. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 129.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at 109.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 106.80.
March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.507. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.834 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 4.160 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.728. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.834. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.280. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.160.
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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last week's low, January's high crossing at 87.40 is the next upside target. If this resistance level is cleared, the 87% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 88.37 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last week's low crossing at 84.02 are needed to confirm that the rally off December's low has come to an end. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 86.97. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 87.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.32. Second support is last week's low crossing at 84.02.
The March Euro was lower overnight signaling a possible end to a two-day short covering rally. However, stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 133.210 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 126.441 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 130.630. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.148. First support is Monday's low crossing at 126.980. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 126.441.
The March British Pound was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4406 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews January's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.3245 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4406. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1.4536. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4173. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.3492.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8809 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews last month's decline the 87% retracement level crossing at .8370 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at .8778. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8809. First support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .8555. Second support is broken resistance marked by the reaction high crossing at .8495.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.12. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 78.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.27. Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 83.14. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 79.82. Second support is January's low crossing at 78.30.
The March Japanese Yen was slightly higher in overnight trading as it consolidates above the 10- day moving average crossing at .11198. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews January's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .11500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11154 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .10964 would greatly increase the odds that January's high marked a double top with December's high. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at .11300. Second resistance is January's high crossing at .11496. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11154. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at .11019.
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PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain April gold was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 868.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally, October's high crossing at 938.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 928.20. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 938.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 899.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing near 868.20.
March silver was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 13.376 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.548 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 12.660. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 13.376. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.138. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.548.
March copper was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.19. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 163.10 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 163.10 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of January's trading range. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 137.30 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of January's trading range and would open the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 125.50. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 155.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 163.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148.47. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 139.90.
FOOD & FIBER
March sugar closed down 4 points at 12.71 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a fresh four-month high early on. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today--firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence.
March coffee closed down 55 points at 119.20 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today--firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence. Prices are still in a choppy two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
March cocoa closed up $8 at $2,728 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today--firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence. The cocoa bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum.
March cotton closed down 41 points at 49.30 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today--firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence. Cotton bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage, but need to show more power soon.
March orange juice closed up 100 points at $.7235. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today--firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence. FCOJ bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
March lumber futures closed up $5.60 at $163.70 today. More short covering was featured today as it appears a major market low is finally in place. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $170.00.
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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.78 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.83. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.56. Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 3.52 3/4.
March wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 5.48 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.78 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March wheat closed down 12-cents at 5.81.
March wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews January's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.11 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 6.24 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes below this support level would confirm that a double top with the early-January high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness into early-February. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher overnight due to short covering as they consolidate some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 9.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.87 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.40 are needed to renew the rally off December's low.
March soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The low-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 292.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 310.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March soybean oil was higher in overnight trading due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends January's decline, the reaction low crossing at 30.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
LIVESTOCK
April live cattle closed down $0.72 at $86.10 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. There was no good follow-through buying strength today, following strong gains, Monday, and the cattle bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending lower from the summertime and autumn highs.
March feeder cattle closed down $0.60 at $93.40 today. Prices closed near the session low on a corrective pullback from limit gains on Monday. Lower corn futures prices today did limit selling interest. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in feeders. However, more strong buying interest Wednesday would provide the bulls with fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
April lean hogs closed up $0.42 at $62.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after dropping to another fresh contract low early on. Weaker cash hog prices today did limit the upside in the futures market. Prices are still in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
May pork bellies closed steady at $84.00 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $86.00.
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