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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 3rd February 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Feb 03, 2009 - 07:31 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extended Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last Friday's decline, January's low crossing at 1132.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1197.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.


First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1197.82. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1244.75. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1153.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 1132.00. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 0.75 pts. at 1189.50 as of 5:11 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, January's low crossing at 797.00 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 875.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 833.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 851.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 806.40.

Second support is January's low crossing at 797.00. The March S&P 500 Index was down 3.50 pts. at 817.80 as of 5:13 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of Monday's rally but remain above support marked by the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 126-12. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 122-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129-05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-28. First support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 126-12. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 126-09.

ENERGY MARKETS
March crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews January's decline, December's low crossing at 38.00 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 48.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the early-January high crossing at 54.74 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.68. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.97. First support is Monday's low crossing at 39.83. Second support is January's low crossing at 39.11.

March heating oil was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews January's decline, December's low crossing at 123.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 148.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 139.16. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.43. First support is January's low crossing at 130.39. Second support is December's low crossing at 123.96.

March unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 106.80 is the next downside target. Closes below January's low would confirm a downside breakout of the current trading range while opening the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 87.08 later this winter. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 129.90 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current trading range. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.45. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 129.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at 109.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 106.80.

March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.534. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.910 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline, monthly support crossing at 4.160 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.669. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.910. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.280. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.160.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last week's low, January's high crossing at 87.40 is the next upside target. If this resistance level is cleared, the 87% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 88.37 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last week's low crossing at 84.02 are needed to confirm that the rally off December's low has come to an end. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 86.97. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 87.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at85.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.22.

The March Euro was slightly higher overnight as it extends Monday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 126.441 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 133.210 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.721. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.384. First support is Monday's low crossing at 126.980. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 126.441.

The March British Pound was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4106. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4423 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews January's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.3245 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4423. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1.4536. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4106. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.3492.

The March Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews last month's decline the 87% retracement level crossing at .8370 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8820 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8674. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8820. First support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .8555. Second support is broken resistance marked by the reaction high crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline below the 10-day moving average, which confirmed that a short-term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 78.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.88. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.43. First support is the overnight low crossing at 79.82. Second support is January's low crossing at 78.30.

The March Japanese Yen was mostly steady in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11122 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .10964 would greatly increase the odds that January's high marked a double top with December's high. If March renews January's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .11500 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at .11275. Second resistance is January's high crossing at .11496. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11122. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at .11019.

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PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally, October's high crossing at 938.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 867.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 928.20. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 938.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 895.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing near 867.10.

March silver was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends January's rally, the 38% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 13.376 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.502 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 12.660. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 13.376. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.033. Second support is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 11.502.

March copper was higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 163.10 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of January's trading range. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 137.30 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of January's trading range and would open the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 125.50. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 163.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at 139.90. Second support is January's low crossing at 137.30.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.980 signaling that a short-term top has likely been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.699 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.585 is the next upside target.

March cocoa closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally but remains above broken resistance marked by December's high crossing at 27.18. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 29.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.97 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March sugar closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it extends last week's trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the August- October decline crossing at 13.14 is the next upside target.

March cotton closed higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short- term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally, the 25% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 54.53 is the next upside target.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the mid-January low crossing at 3.58 3/4 then the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 are the next downside targets. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.82 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.86 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.63. Second support is the mid-January low crossing at 3.58 3/4.

March wheat was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 5.48 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.83 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 5.63 3/4.

March wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends last Friday's decline below the 10-day moving average. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews January's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.18 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 6.10 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 6.24 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes below this support level would confirm that a double top with the early-January high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness into early-February. If March renews the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 6.85 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes above this resistance level are needed to renew the rally off December's low.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight as they extend last week's decline. The low-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 9.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.90 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.40 are needed to renew the rally off December's low.

March soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.30. The low-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, January's low crossing at 292.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 312.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March soybean oil was lower in overnight trading as it extends last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends January's decline, the reaction low crossing at 30.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

LIVESTOCK
April hogs closed down $1.30 at $61.67.

April hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 60.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 63.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.69. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 60.60. Second support is weekly support crossing at 60.08.

February bellies closed down $1.35 at $81.60.

February bellies posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.87. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a double bottom with December's low has likely been posted. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.93 are needed to confirm that a double bottom has been posted.

April cattle closed up $1.72 at 86.82.

April cattle closed sharply higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.63 confirming that a short-
term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March feeder cattle closed up $3.00 at $94.00.

March Feeder cattle gapped up and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.94 on Monday confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 95.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

By INO.com

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