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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 19th January 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 19, 2009 - 10:50 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday as it consolidated this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1097.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1218.77 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20- day moving average crossing at 1211.06. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1218.77. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1138.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1097.00.


The March S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, gap support crossing at 802.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 881.41 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 881.41. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 915.80. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 813.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.00.

The Dow closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 7965 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 8568 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8568. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8769. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 7995. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7965.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds closed down 30/32's at 136-07.

March T-bonds closed lower on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-09 are needed to confirm that a short- term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 134-14 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 130-01 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-09. Second resistance is today's high crossing at 137-13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134-14. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 132-02.

ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline, which spiked to a new contract low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Closes below December's low crossing at 35.13 would open the door for a possible test of psychological support crossing at 30.00 later this winter. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 40.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 40.66. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 42.70. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 33.20. Second support is psychological support crossing at 30.00.

February heating oil closed lower due to light profit taking on Friday as it consolidates above support crossing at 143.53. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.53 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If February renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 185.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 166.88. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 185.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.53. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 127.84.

February unleaded gas posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 131.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.84 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 127.84. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 131.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.84. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 90.00.

February Henry natural closed lower on Friday extending this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, monthly support crossing at 4.623 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.586 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.436. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.586. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.742. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.623.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but becoming overbought warning bulls to use caution as a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off December's low, fib resistance crossing at 86.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 85.92. Second resistance is fib resistance crossing at 86.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.99. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.96.

The March Euro closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.822 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, fib support crossing at 129.372 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133.797. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.822. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 129.990. Second support is fib support crossing at 129.372.

The March British Pound closed higher on Friday due to short covering but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4827. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this week's decline, December's low crossing at 1.4329 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4827 are needed to confirm that short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4749. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4827. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.4451. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.4329.

The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday due to short covering. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, broken resistance crossing at .8495 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9151 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8996. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9151. First support is Thursday's low crossing at .8835. Second support is broken resistance crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 76.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.39. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.51. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 78.84. Second support is December's low crossing at 76.93.

The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-
term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .11009 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at .11492 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at .11314. Second resistance is December's high crossing at .11492. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11009. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at .10915.

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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold closed sharply higher due to short covering on Friday and closed above the 10-day moving average crossing at 837.30 signaling that a short-term low has likely been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 849.20 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 842.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 849.20. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 801.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 790.10.

March silver closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.984 confirming that a short-
term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 11.770 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 10.320 would renew the decline off this month's high. First resistance is today's high crossing at 11.305. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 11.770. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 10.320. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 10.105.

March copper closed higher on Friday due to short covering. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 173.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.13 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 162.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 173.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 125.50.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 10.605 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews last week's rally, November's high crossing at 12.335 is the next upside target.

March cocoa closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 23.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.57 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March sugar closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.00 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20- day moving average crossing at 11.56 are needed to temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March cotton closed higher on Friday as it extended yesterday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 48.42. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Closes above last week's crossing at 50.90 are needed to renew the rally off November's low.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March Corn closed up 25 3/4-cents at 3.91.

March corn gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday filling Tuesday's gap crossing at 3.80 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.95 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 is the next downside target. Today's rally was triggered by speculative short covering and unwinding of the corn-soybean spread. Traders began to focus on the corn-soybean ratio and are becoming concerned that corn is going to lose too many acres to soybeans. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 3.80 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.95. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.58 3/4. Second support is fib support crossing at 3.52 3/4.

March wheat closed up 9 1/2-cents at 5.78 1/4.

March wheat closed higher on Friday due to spillover short covering from corn and soybeans as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.97 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up 14 1/2-cents at 6.09.

Kansas City Wheat closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.22 3/4 would temper the bearish outlook in the market.

March Minneapolis wheat closed up 11-cents at 6.52 3/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.84 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.55 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans closed up 25 1/2-cents at 10.20.

January soybeans closed higher on Friday and above Monday's gap crossing at 10.12 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last week's high crossing at 10.39 1/2 would renew the rally off December's low while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 11.12 later this winter. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.60 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March soybean meal closed up $11.00 at $316.00.

March soybean meal closed higher on Friday and closed above last week's high crossing at 315.00 thereby renewing the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 334.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 293.80 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March soybean oil closed up 19 pts. at 34.59.

March soybean oil closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.76 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 36.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.

LIVESTOCK
February hogs closed up $0.12 at $59.95.

February hogs closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 58.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's gap crossing at 61.27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.37. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 59.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.90.

February bellies closed down $0.47 at $83.32.

February bellies closed lower on Friday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 79.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 91.80 are needed to needed to renew the late-December rally.

February cattle closed up $0.17 at 84.52.

February cattle closed higher on Friday due to short covering but the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.63 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above last week's high crossing at 89.10 are needed to renew the rebound off December's low. If February renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at 80.60 is the next downside target.

March feeder cattle closed up $0.07 at $94.37.

March Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday due to short covering. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 95.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 91.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

By INO.com

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