Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 15th January 2009
Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 15, 2009 - 11:49 AM GMTBy: INO
The March NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it extends this week's decline and is below support marked by the reaction low crossing at 1156.25. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1097.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1222.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
The March NASDAQ 100 was down 16.50 pts. at 1149.00 as of 5:57 AM CST. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1211.65. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1222.40. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1138.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1097.00. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, the reaction low crossing at 816.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 889.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 884.71. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 889.50. First support is the overnight low crossing at 828.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 816.00. The March S&P 500 Index was down 2.40 pts. at 837.50 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 130-01 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-15. Second resistance is the overnight high crossing at 137-31. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134-13. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 131-
23.
ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 35.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 41.94 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 50.47 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.18. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 41.94. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 35.52. Second support is December's low crossing at 35.13.
February heating oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.63. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.63 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If February renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 185.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 166.88. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 185.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 127.84.
February unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 121.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.34 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 124.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.53. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.34.
February Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline, monthly support crossing at 4.623 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.637 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.568. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.637. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.925. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.623.
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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 85.55 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.72 would confirm that the corrective rally off December's low has come to an end. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 85.37. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level crossing at 85.55. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.72.
The March Euro was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 129.372 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.357 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.379. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.356. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 130.640. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 129.372.
The March British Pound was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 1.4329 is the next downside target. Closes below December's low crossing at 1.4329 would renew the decline off December's high. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4782 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4782. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1.5356. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.4430. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.4329.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, broken resistance crossing at .8495 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9171 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9032. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9171. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at .8872. Second support is the reaction high crossing at .8495.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 76.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.78 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.58. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.78. First support is the overnight low crossing at 79.83. Second support is December's low crossing at 76.93.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at .11492 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-
day moving average crossing at .10999 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .11314. Second resistance is December's high crossing at .11492. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11062. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10999.
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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the November-December uptrend line crossing near 815.20. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the aforementioned uptrend line would confirm a trend change while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of December's low crossing at 741.20 later this winter. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 850.90 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 841.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 850.90. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 806.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing near 790.10.
March silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 10.105 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.013 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.930. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.013. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 10.335. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 10.105.
March copper was lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.46 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 173.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 162.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 173.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.46. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 141.35.
FOOD & FIBER
March coffee posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a setback is possible near-term. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 10.605 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews last week's rally, November's high crossing at 12.335 is the next upside target.
March cocoa posted a key reversal down on Wednesday and closed below the reaction low crossing at 24.60 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 23.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.53 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.00 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed lower on Wednesday extending this week's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 47.20. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 41.31 is the next downside target.
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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis
March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.67 1/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 3.80 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.95. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.58 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4.
March wheat was lower overnight but remains above the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.58 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.58 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.01 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 3-cents at 6.00.
Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.28 3/4 would temper the bearish outlook in the market.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average. The high-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.84 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.55 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher overnight due to short covering as they consolidate some of Monday's limit down decline. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.52 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average would open the door for a larger-degree decline during January. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.23 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
March soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight trading as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 299.20. The high-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, the 20-day moving average is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 290.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 305.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
March soybean oil was higher in overnight trading due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.59 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 38.04 is the next upside target.
LIVESTOCK
February hogs closed down $1.52 at $59.92.
February hogs gapped down and closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 58.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's gap crossing at 61.27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.63. First support is today's low crossing at 59.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.90.
February bellies closed up $0.05 at $85.05.
February bellies closed slightly higher on Wednesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 79.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 91.80 are needed to needed to renew the late-December rally.
February cattle closed down $0.72 at 83.35.
February cattle closed lower on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If February extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 80.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.87 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above last week's high crossing at 89.10 are needed to renew the rebound off December's low.
March feeder cattle closed down $0.27 at $94.62.
March Feeder cattle closed slightly lower on Wednesday due to profit taking but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.29. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 95.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
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