Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 31st December

By: INO

The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1254.00 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1254.00 are needed to renew this month's rally. If March renews Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1135.00 is the next downside target.

The March NASDAQ 100 was up 1.25 pts. at 1207.25 as of 5:59 AM CST. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1209.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1248.75. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1156.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1135.00. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 918.50 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 918.50 are needed to renew this month's rally. If December renews last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 828.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 894.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 918.50. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 853.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 828.60. The March S&P 500 Index was up 3.30 pts. at 891.50 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were mostly steady in quiet trading overnight as they extend the late-December trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-18 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 141-28. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 139-23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-18.

ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends last week's decline, psychological support crossing at 35.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 39.69. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.22. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 35.13. Second support is psychological support crossing at 35.00.

February heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews this fall's decline, monthly support marked by the January 2005 low crossing at 116.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133.74. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.14. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 121.36. Second support is the January 2005 low crossing at 116.80.

February unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 121.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends last week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 1999- 2008-rally crossing at 73.73 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 93.62. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.22. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 82.60. Second support is the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 73.73.

February Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.996 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.726 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.180. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.996. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.754. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.726.

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CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 76.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 82.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.63. First support is this month's low crossing at 78.77. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 76.56.

The March Euro was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of the decline off this month's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at 148.780 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.728 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is this month's high crossing at 146.870. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 148.780. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 139.080. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.728.
The March British Pound was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's losses. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.4004 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4843 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4843. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.5700. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.4368. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.4004.

The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought and diverging hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the March-November decline crossing at .9701 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8882 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at .9662. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at .9701. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9315. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8882.

The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight but remains above support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.10. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-December decline crossing at 86.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.55. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 86.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.10. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 81.05.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at .11021. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11021 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, .11500 is the next upside target. First resistance is this month's high crossing at .11492. Second resistance is .11500. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11021. Second support is Monday's low crossing at .10958.

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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but oversold and diverging hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If February extends this month's rally, October's high crossing at 938.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 827.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 892.00. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 938.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 858.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 827.40.

March silver was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.804. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.429 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this month's rally, the 25% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 11.700 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 11.275. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 11.615. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.429. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 10.105.

March copper was higher due to short covering overnight and is trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at 131.68. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.63 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If March renews this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 106.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 136.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.63. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 125.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at 106.78.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, this month's low crossing at 10.215 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 11.400 are needed to renew this month's rally.

March cocoa posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Tuesday as it consolidates above this summer's downtrend line. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, the September 29th gap crossing at 27.20 is the next upside target.

March sugar closed higher on Tuesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.28 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 12.07 are needed to renew this month's rally. If March renews last week's decline, November's low crossing at 10.51 is the next downside target.

March cotton closed higher on Tuesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the reaction high crossing at 48.00 confirms that a bottom has been posted. If December extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 51.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.01 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.68 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends this month's rally, the 25% retracement level of the decline off July's high crossing at 4.33 1/2 then November's high crossing at 4.38 1/2 are the next upside targets. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.23 3/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 4.33 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.70 1/2.

March wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session opens later this morning. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.43 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.08 would confirm an upside breakout of this fall's trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 6.71 1/4 later this winter.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up 10 3/4-cents at 6.21 3/4.

Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.62 1/4 would temper the friendly outlook in the market. If March extends this month's rally, the October 6th gap crossing at 6.91 is the next upside target.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 10 3/4-cents at 6.55 1/2.

March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.06 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.74, which coincides with the 25% retracement level of the June-December decline crossing at 6.77 are the next upside targets.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were lower due to light profit taking overnight as they consolidate some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.73 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 9.93 1/2, which coincides with the 25% retracement level of the July- December decline crossing at 9.97 3/4 are the next upside targets. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 9.81. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 9.93 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.13 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.73 3/4.

March soybean meal was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The low-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish warning bulls to use caution as a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 311.10 is the next upside target later this winter.

March soybean oil was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.27 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March renews this fall's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008-rally crossing at 28.43 is the next downside target. If March renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 36.43 is the next upside target.

LIVESTOCK
February hogs closed up $0.57 at $59.72.

February hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 56.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's gap crossing at 60.60. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.00. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 58.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at 56.85.

February bellies closed down $2.22 at $85.22.

February bellies closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of its recent gains off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 79.30 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 91.80 are needed to needed to renew the late-December rally.
February cattle closed down $0.30 at 85.90.

February cattle closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.59 signaling that a short-term top has likely been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 95.60 is the next upside target.
March feeder cattle closed up $0.97 at $93.82.

March Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this month's rally, November's high crossing at 101.20 is the next upside target.

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