Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 12th December

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Dec 12, 2008 - 07:46 AM GMT

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article The March NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight due to profit taking triggered by disappointment over the senate's failure to pass a bailout bill for the auto industry. The overnight sell off has led to a decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1154.67. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1154.67 would confirm that a short- term top has been posted while opening the door for sideways to lower prices possibly into the end of this year.

If March extends the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 1321.75 is the next upside target. The March NASDAQ 100 was down 46.25 pts. at 1143.75 as of 5:58 AM CST. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1254.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1321.75. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1135.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1093.00. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was sharply lower overnight and trading below support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 852.15. The overnight sell off was triggered by the senate's failure to pass some kind of bailout bill for the auto industry. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the overnight decline, the reaction low crossing at 813.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 919.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 962.30. First support is the overnight low crossing at 828.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 813.50. The March S&P 500 Index was down 39.00 pts. at 835.50 as of 6:02 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were higher overnight due to weakness in the equity markets overnight. At the same time they continue to extend this week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 133-06 are needed to confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 135-27. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133-06. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-02.

ENERGY MARKETS
January crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews this fall's decline, psychological support crossing at 40.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 49.12. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.26. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 40.50. Second support is psychological support crossing at 40.00.

January heating oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. However, closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 163.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends this fall's decline, monthly support marked by the 75% retracement level of the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 126.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 150.13. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163.08. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 138.45. Second support is monthly support crossing at 126.32.

January unleaded gas was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's short covering rally. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 108.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews this fall's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 1999-2008 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 73.73 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 108.38. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 124.20. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 89.50. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 1999-2008 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 73.73.

January Henry natural gas was lower overnight and is poised to renew this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 5.249 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.252 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.903. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.252. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.458. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.249.

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CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 83.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is broken support marked by the reaction low crossing at 85.34. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.73. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 83.99. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 83.06.

The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Thursday's close above the reaction high crossing at 132.350 confirms that a bottom has been posted. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 137.720 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.938 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 133.720. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137.720. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128.813. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.938.

The March British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.5544 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.4004 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.5100. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.5544. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.4500. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.4004.

The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally above moving average resistance. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .8495 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If March renews this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at .8071 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .8541. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .8944. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8364. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at .8201.

The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 82.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.67 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 82.28. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 82.54. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.67. Second support is November's low crossing at 77.00.

The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally and has broken out above October's high crossing at .11055. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low,.11500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10667 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .11373. Second resistance is .11500. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10850. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10667.

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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 862.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 780.60 are needed to confirm that a short- term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 835.30. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 862.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 784.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 780.60.

March silver was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.807. From a broad perspective, March remains locked in this fall's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.775 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews last week's decline, October's low crossing at 8.510 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 10.540. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.705. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.807. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 9.125.

March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's minor gains. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 173.35 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If March extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 106.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157.34. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 135.60. Second support is monthly support crossing at 106.78.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Thursday and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.30 signaling that a short-
term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 11.750 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.054 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.

March cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends November's rally, this summer's downtrend line crossing near 24.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March sugar closed higher on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.48. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.36 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March cotton closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.73. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December renews last week's decline, November's low crossing at 39.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 48.00 would confirm that a bottom has been posted.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The fact that March corn was able to rally despite yesterday's bearish supply-demand report strongly suggests that a seasonal low has finally been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.59 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.

If March renews this fall's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2005-2008-rally crossing at 2.59 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3.57 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.59. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 3.05 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2005-2008-rally crossing at 2.59 3/4.

March wheat was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Thursday's monthly supply-demand report showed an increase in carryout as fundamentals remain bearish and will limit rallies until late-winter or next spring. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. The low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session opens later this morning. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.26 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off August's high, the May 2007 low on the continuation chart crossing at 4.68 is the next downside target.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 3/4-cents at 5.34.

Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's short covering rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.56 1/2 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If March renews this summer's decline, the May 2007 low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target.

March Minneapolis wheat closed down 2 1/2-cents at 5.88 3/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.81 1/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.00 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 5.22 is the next downside target.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
January soybeans were lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.54 1/4 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews this fall's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 7.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 8.65 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.98 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.25 1/4. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 7.79 1/4.

March soybean meal was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average. The low-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 255.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted and that a trend change has taken place. If March renews last week's decline, monthly support marking the 75% retracement level of the 2004-2008-rally crossing at 221.90 is the next downside target.

March soybean oil was lower overnight due to profit taking triggered by spillover weakness from crude oil. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this fall's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008-rally crossing at 28.43 is the next downside target.

LIVESTOCK
February hogs closed down $0.75 at $62.37.

February hogs gapped down and closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 60.50 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 65.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.03. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 64.38. First support is today's low crossing at 61.55. Second support is October's low crossing at 60.50.

February bellies closed down $2.07 at $82.42.

February bellies gapped down and closed below November's low crossing at 82.82 on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends today's decline, psychological support crossing at 80.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

February cattle closed up $0.02 at 83.82.

February cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends this week's short covering rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. However, closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews last week's decline, weekly support crossing at 80.00 is the next downside target.

January feeder cattle closed up $0.25 at $87.60.

January Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends this fall's decline, weekly support crossing at 84.35 is the next downside target.

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