The Homebuilders ETF (AMEX: XHB) appears to have established a significant low at 8.21 on Nov 21, and already has carved out what exhibits a bullish initial upleg from 8.21 to 12.24 (11/26). The pullback into yesterday's low at 10.32 has been reversed this morning, in a powerful surge that is nearing a retest of the 11/26 high, which if hurdled should trigger additional strength towards a confrontation with the declining 50 DMA, now at 13.83.

What now? My near-term work argues that for the next couple of weeks, the XHB is in a "buy the dips" set-up, on the way to 13.60/80. If the XHB pulls back later today, I will be looking to enter the long side for our model portfolio, but not here atop a 13% advance.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

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Comments

Clayton Tom
04 Dec 08, 07:10

RSI

What I have learned by reading your articles is to track the RSI indicator. More helpful than MACD. Following your last publication, today looks like a good time to go short.

SKF, SDS, QID. FAZ etc. Already short oil long DTO ERY, and Short ERX, DIG and UCO. Would appreciate an article of petroleum downside target. Looks like $30 would be a good support area. I am the retired guy who cant afford to subscribe, but I will certainly do it if I can close a private placement of $5million. Thanks again for your outstanding free advice. Clay

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