Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 12th November

By: INO

The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 1136.75 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 1389.00 are needed to renew the rally off October's low. Closes above the October 14th reaction high crossing at 1499.00 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.

The December NASDAQ 100 was up 6.00 pts. at 1229.00 as of 5:55 AM CST. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1284.50. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1294.65. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1208.00. Second support is October's low crossing at 1136.75. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by December NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. If December extends Tuesday's decline, October's low crossing at 825.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 941.52 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the October 14th reaction high crossing at 1066.50 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.

First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 931.18. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 941.51. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 883.00. Second support is October's low crossing at 825.00. The December S&P 500 Index was up 7.10 pts. at 900.10 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


INTEREST RATES
December T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 119-29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 115-25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 118-21. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119-29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116-00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115-25.

ENERGY MARKETS
December crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this fall's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. If December extends this fall's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2002-2008-rally crossing at 51.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 71.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 63.54. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.83. First support is the overnight low crossing at 57.70. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 51.81.

December heating oil was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline and has broken out below October's low crossing at 190.89. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support marked by the 62% retracement level of the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 176.90 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 221.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 200.33. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.53. First support is the overnight low crossing at 188.75. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 176.90.

December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, the December 2004 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 103.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 158.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 139.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.96. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 127.66. Second support is the December 2004 low crossing at 103.50.

December Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 6.330 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.360 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.883. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 7.360. First support is the overnight low crossing at 6.630. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6.330.

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CURRENCIES

The December Dollar was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 90.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 83.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 879.30. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 88.49. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.84.

The December Euro was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's low but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 127.474. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 123.260 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.488 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 127.476. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.490. First support is the overnight low crossing at 124.550. Second support is October's low crossing at 123.260.  

The December British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline and spiked below October's low crossing at 1.5224. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December renews this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.4574 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.6634 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5777. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6108. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.5180. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.4574.

The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8556. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8629 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at .8238 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8556. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8629. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at .8403. Second support is monthly support crossing at .8238.

The December Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.50. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 88.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 87.24. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.42. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 80.82.

The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at .9821 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at .10347 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at .10347. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10396. First support is Monday's low crossing at .10058. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at .9953.

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PRECIOUS METALS
December gold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 736.10. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 778.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this fall's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2004-2008-rally crossing at 651.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 736.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 746.40.

First support is the reaction low crossing at 717.10. Second support is the October's low crossing at 681.00.

December silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.719 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If December renews the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 12.355 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 10.800. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 11.195. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 9.530. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.400.

December copper was lower overnight as it extends this fall's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below October's low would renew this fall's decline while opening the door for a possible test of monthly support crossing at 152.15. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 217.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 178.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.50. First support is the overnight low crossing at 162.15. Second support is monthly support crossing at 152.15.

FOOD & FIBER

December coffee closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.335 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 12.110 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

December cocoa closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.95. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this fall's decline, the 2007 low crossing at 18.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 21.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March sugar closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.12 as it extended last week's decline. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 14.72 is the next upside target.

December cotton closed lower on Tuesday and posted a new contract low as it extends this fall's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 36.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 46.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

December corn was lower overnight due to due to spillover weakness from outside markets such as energies. December continues to extend this fall's trading range as it tries to build a harvest bottom. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 3.27 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above gap resistance on the day only chart crossing at 4.53 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.33. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 3.27 1/4.

December wheat was lower overnight as it extends last week's trading range below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.34 3/4. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session opens later this morning. If December extends the decline off August's high, the May 2007 low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 5.87 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 8-cents at 5.71.

December Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.79 1/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this summer's decline, the May 2007 low crossing at 4.96 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 6.22 1/2 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 4 1/2-cents at 6.44 1/2.

December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.49. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, October's low crossing at 5.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.10 are needed to confirm that a seasonal bottom has been posted.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
January soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.05 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 8.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 9.81 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.05. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 8.82 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.48.

December soybean meal was lower due to profit taking overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. The low-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews last week's decline, October's low crossing at 236.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the July-August downtrend line crossing near 277.30 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place.

December soybean oil was lower overnight due to spillover selling pressure from lower energy prices. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 37.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 33.14 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If December renews this fall's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 29.62 is the next downside target.

LIVESTOCK
December hogs closed down $0.02 at $54.97.

December hogs closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 55.19. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.35 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 50.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 55.19. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.35. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 53.90. Second support is monthly support crossing at 50.65.  
February bellies closed up $0.47 at $86.67.

February bellies closed higher on Tuesday as it rebounds off this fall's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 80.67 is the next downside target.  
December cattle closed down $1.05 at 91.60.

December cattle gapped down and closed below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.65 on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, gap resistance crossing at 97.50 is the next upside target.
January feeder cattle closed down $1.67 at $97.20.

January Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.48 confirming that a short-
term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends today's decline, October's low crossing at 93.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

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