Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Strong Stock Market Rally Expected

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 May 15, 2019 - 03:17 PM GMT

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Stock-Markets The stock market fell in capitulation on Monday, a ‘c’ of “z” type wave that got everyone beared-up. Monday was the 16 TD low and could be the 20 week low as well (94 trading days of the 100 trading day low 15 trading days). The ten week went 49/50 trading days in early March, which is normal.  As of Monday we saw 44/45 trading days, which could complete a 10/20 week low pattern (at least 2 ten week patterns).

The Dow 30 looks to have made a possible xyz type of B wave bull flag Monday (at least it could be viewed that way by traders). The Dow topped on April 23rd where the SPX topped on May 1, 6 trading days later, making a “b” wave for the Dow, but an irregular “y” wave top for the SPX.  It is possible from this configuration that we could see a strong wave of buying into May 21st and then a hard drop into June 5th (110 trading days and 16 trading days from May 13th).

So, we are not out of the woods just yet.  My preferred count is a strong rally into early July from May 13th then down into late Sept/early October.  The normal 4-year cycle has the July top late in the month or even in early August.  For this to happen, we need another big drop like Jan-Feb 2018 from May 21-June 5 to finish Wave B. The reason is, C would = A in time in price.  This is called the Equality of Waves Principle.


Below, I have my preferred count (on shaky ground as I mentioned) and that is Wave B of “Y” terminated May 13th and it rallies hard into early July.  Early July is 9 months (39/40 week cycle) from the October 2018 top. The recent irregular top on the SPX on May 1 has me concerned that I could be wrong as wave ‘z’ would have counted out –xyz- itself, which is not likely with this kind of formation. It could be xyz “x” May 13th and then “y” into May 21 with “z” of Z into June 5th.

 If I’m wrong, at least we have a strong wave back up into May 21 to above the last top near SPX 2954 and that would count as “y” of an xyz Z Wave pattern). 2980 beckons this Friday with 2990/3000-ish by May 21.  The day after OPEX could sell-off hard as Mercury trines Pluto over the weekend.  Mercury trines Saturn on Thursday and that set-up portends a bullish tone for Friday, as we squeeze in between the two aspects.  The week looks bullish to me. Whatever comes after that may end up being the rub, we’ll see.  It bears watching May 21st through May 28th.  If the 28th fails to go higher than May 21st, watch out below!





Gold and the miners have diverged, as gold has become overbought while the mining sector is becoming oversold.  My take is, we have one more down draft for both into late next week to fulfill four 9-week cycle lows (36 weeks).  GDX could go below 19.00.  If it does, my opinion is that it will be a nice buying opportunity with a target of 26 in the coming months.



As you can see by the weekly chart above, I believe this to be a counter trend ABC rally.  The best buying opportunity may be early next year if the 4 year cycle has anything to do with it.

The chart below of the S&P 500 has my alternate count, which suggests a move to new highs by May 17-21 and then a hard drop into June 5th. The irregular top of May 1 and the xyz pattern (in orange) from April 23-May 13 is very bullish for the short term.  The alternative wave count has a huge drop from May 21st - June 5th.

Normally, when there is a break of a Rising Wedge, the expectation is for a false break, a rebound back to or inside the wedge (snap back rally) and then a water fall type decline. This alternative count , if it happens places the C wave top out toward August 1, and not early July (as the Dow charts show) with an equal wave of time and price. With the Trump/China banter going on, this could be what happens.

Brad Gudgeon
Editor of The BluStar Market Timer

www.blustarmarkettimer.info

The BluStar Market Timer was rated #1 in the world by Timer Trac in 2014, competing with over 1600 market timers. This occurred despite what the author considered a very difficult year for him. Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info To view the details more clearly, you may visit our free chart look atwww.blustarmarkettimer.com

Copyright 2019, BluStar Market Timer.  All rights reserved.
Disclaimer:  The above information is not intended as investment advice.  Market timers can and do make mistakes.  The above analysis is believed to be reliable, but we cannot be responsible for losses should they occur as a result of using this information.  This article is intended for educational purposes only. Past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

Brad Gudgeon Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in