Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis - 15th June 19
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals - 15th June 19
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline - 15th June 19
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? - 15th June 19
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? - 15th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video - 14th June 19
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! - 14th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video - 14th June 19
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China - 14th June 19
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line - 14th June 19
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks - 14th June 19
Please Don’t Buy the Dip in Nvidia or Other Chip Stocks - 14th June 19
A Big Thing in Investor Education is Explainer Videos - 14th June 19
IRAN - The Next American War - 13th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match Contest - 13th June 19
Top Best VPN Services You Can Choose For Your iPhone - 13th June 19
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair - 13th June 19
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation - 13th June 19
Which Stocks Will Lead The Cannabis Rebound? - 13th June 19
The Privatization of US Indo-Pacific Vision - Project 2049, Armitage, Budget Ploys and Taiwan Nexus - 12th June 19
Gold Price Breaks to the Upside - 12th June 19
Top Publicly Traded Casino Company Stocks for 2019 - 12th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - 12th June 19
Why Blue-Chip Dividend Stocks Aren’t as Safe as You Think - 12th June 19
Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Stock Market Top Pattern Should Form - 12th June 19
FTSE 100: A Top European Index - 12th June 19
Gold Surprise! - 11th June 19
How Forex Indicators are Getting Even More Attention in the Market? - 11th June 19
Stock Market Storm Clouds on the Horizon - 11th June 19
Is Your Financial Security Based On A Double Aberration? - 11th June 19
What If Stocks Are Wrong About Interest Rate Cuts? - 11th June 19
US House Prices Yield Curve, Debt, QE4EVER! - 11th June 19
Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone - 11th June 19
U.S. Dollar Stall is Good for Commodities - 11th June 19
Fed Running Out of Time and Conventional Weapons - 11th June 19
Trade Wars Propelling Stock Markets to New Highs - 11th June 19
Best Travel Bags for Summer Holidays 2019, Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt, tactical - 11th June 19
Betting on Next British Prime Minister Tory Leadership Betfair Markets Forecast - 10th June 19
How Can Stock Market Go Up When We’re Headed Towards a Recession? - 10th June 19
If You Invest in Dividend Stocks, Do This to Double Your Returns - 10th June 19
Reasons for the Success of the Dating Market - 10th June 19
Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video - 10th June 19
US Stock Markets Rally Hard – Could Another Big Upside Leg Begin? - 10th June 19
Stock Market Huge Cosmic Cluster Ahead: Buckle Up! - 10th June 19
Stock Market Higher To Go? - 10th June 19
The Gold Price Golden Neckline… - 10th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th June 19
The Fed Stops Pretending - 9th June 19
Fed Rate Cuts Soon; Bitcoin Enthusiasts Join Wall Street in Bashing Gold - 9th June 19
1990s vs. 2010s - Which Expansion Will be Better for Gold? - 9th June 19
Gold Price Trend Analysis, MACD, Trend Channels, Support / Resistance - 8th June 19
Gold Surges Near Breakout - 8th June 19
Could Gold Rally Above $3750 Before December 2019? - 8th June 19
5 Big Lies About Precious Metals Investing Exposed - 8th June 19
ADL Predictive Modeling Suggests A Big Move In Silver - 7th June 19
US China Trade War Will Start a Recession, or Worse… - 7th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Expected Life, Worn Pads Dash Warning - 7th June 19
The Post Room Selfies Fun at Meadowhall Sheffield, From Game of Thrones to Desert Island... - 7th June 19
SAMSUNG - South Korean Electronics Giant - Investing in AI Stocks - Video - 7th June 19
Gold Price Rally or New Bull Market? - 7th June 19
Digging into the Rising Gold: Trade Tensions, Recessionary Worries and Dovish Fed - 7th June 19
The Risky Stocks Big Lie That Keeps Many Investors Poor - 7th June 19
Gold and HUI Short-term Strength Is a Strong Call to Action - 7th June 19
Fear Drives Stock Market Expectations - 7th June 19 - Chris_Vermeulen
Next British Prime Minister Tory Leadership Betting Markets - 6th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Total Debt and Leveraged Loans to the Rescue of Gold Bulls?

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019 May 10, 2019 - 09:05 AM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Commodities

The Fed has just published the newest edition of its Financial Stability Report. It covers what the most powerful central bank in the world perceives as risks to the financial system stability. Is it time for the gold bulls to uncork champagne?

Financial Sectors Appears Resilient, But…

The Fed’s assessment of the financial vulnerabilities in the latest Financial Stability Report has little changed since November 2018 when the report was inaugurated. The financial sector appears resilient, with low leverage and limited funding risk. It seems that gold will have to wait longer for a crisis that could push its prices out of the comfort zone.


However, there might be a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. The report point out two red warning signs. First, asset price valuations. Although some pressures have eased a bit since the latest report in November 2018, asset price valuations “remain elevated in a number of markets, with inves¬tors continuing to exhibit high appetite for risk.”

Indeed, equity prices relative to forecast earnings remain above the median value over the past 30 years. Similarly, real estate prices are high relative to rents. And spreads on leveraged loans have widened recently to level above the historical median, which reflects high demand for leveraged loans.

This is related to the second biggest threat for the financial stability noted by the Fed – the debt. As the chart below shows, the corporate debt has been on the rise.

Chart 1: Nonfinancial corporate business; debt securities; liability; millions of dollars, quarterly, not seasonally adjusted, from Q1 1952 to Q3 2018.

The problem is that, although household borrowing remains at a modest level relative to incomes, leverage in the business sector is high by historical standards, while the credit standards for some business loans have deteriorated further.

borrowing by businesses is historically high relative to gross domestic product (GDP), with the most rapid increases in debt concen¬trated among the riskiest firms amid signs of deteriorating credit standards.

What a surprise! Who would havethought that ZIRP may encourage excessive indebtedness? Or that low interest rates may draw in marginal borrowers and the most riskiest firms that would not get credit at higher rates?

So far, thanks to the easy monetary policy, the corporate indebtedness has not been very problematic. However, even the Fed acknowledges that “the elevated level of debt could leave the business sector vulnerable to a downturn in economic activity or a tightening in financial conditions.”
Elementary, my dear Watson. This is actually why the Fed is a hostage to the Wall Street. The tightening in financial conditions could indeed prove very harmful. This is because the share of bonds rated at the lowest investment-grade level has reached near-record level as more than 50 percent of investment-grade bonds outstanding are rated triple-B (just above the junk status), amounting to about $1.9 trillion. Thus, a slowdown in the global economy or tighter financial conditions would trigger downgrades of these bonds to specu¬lative-grade ratings, possibly cascading through the financial markets.

Implications for Gold

The Fed is ringing the alarm over the increase in leveraged loans and corporate debt. That’s a big risk. If it materializes, the gold prices should go up. However, ringing the alarm does not equal to the economic crisis on our doorstep. The leveraged loan buildup is not a simple replay of the last financial crisis. One important difference is that before the Great Recession, loans made out to highly indebted businesses were chiefly the preserve of banks, but now they are mainly funded by hedge funds and other non-bank lenders. The banking sector’s balance sheets are stronger now than they were before the liquidity crunch of 2008.

Hence, the financial sector seems to be resilient. But the key world here might be “seems”. When interest rates are low, and the Fed is always ready to accommodate the needs of financial sector, everything looks great. But it might be an illusion. We still bet that the current expansion may still last for quite a while longer and thus not provide tailwind for gold. As they say, hope for the best but prepare for the worst. We will keep monitoring closely the corporate debt and leveraged loans – join us and check the June edition of the Market Overview!

Thank you.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would you like to know more about the gold ETFs and their impact on gold price, we invite you to read the April Market Overview report. If you're interested in the detailed price analysis and price projections with targets, we invite you to sign up for our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts . If you're not ready to subscribe at this time, we invite you to sign up for our gold newsletter and stay up-to-date with our latest free articles. It's free and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Arkadiusz Sieron

Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieron Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules