So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Formulating a Stock Market Forecast

So in this last analysis comes

Now comes the hard part, to convert all of the above analysis and more into a trend forecast for as far distant into the future as I can reliably conclude.

Presently the stock market is pending a breakout higher, so technically remains stuck in a trading range. The Presidential cycle is strongly bullish for stocks. Suggests stocks are going to have a very strong year, and so far the markets are not disappointing by last trading at 25,916. So it looks like we are definitely going to see a NEW ALL TIME HIGH, so the Dow looks set to trade above 27,000.

How high? 30k? Could the Dow get to 30k? Well sitting here in the middle of a trading range its difficult to say what the Dow will do once it breaks out of its trading range. An achievable target for a 20% gain would be 28,000, though I would not be surprised to see 29k, whilst 30k would be a push as that would represent a 29% gain on the start of the year (23,300)!

28,000 = +20%

29,000 = +24.5%

30.000 = +29%

In terms of a trend pattern, well several technical indicators are bearish so imply an imminent correction to somewhere between 24,500 and 23,000. I think 24,500 is more probable given the strength of the rebound which implies the market wants to go higher rather than lower.

Seasonal's didn't prove reliable last year, and so far are not for at least the first 3 months of 2019, which ironically implies to expect them to be more reliable for much of the remainder of the year.

Thus I am leaning towards a trend lower during March, higher into Mid May, a wobble during June / July followed by a breakout surge higher into September for the New High to at least Dow 28,000.

Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion

Therefore my forecast conclusion as illustrated by the below chart is for the Dow to target a trend to at least Dow 28,000 by Mid September 2019.

Initially the Dow looks set to correct during March to approx 24,500 before rallying to attempt to break above 27,000 during May, a correction from which should set the scene for an eventual breakout to 28,000 by Mid September.

Peering into the Mysts of Time

December is a LONG way of, but I do expect Santa to come this year! Of course I will come back with analysis updates and a forecast nearer the time as there are over 6 months of price data and economic news ahead of us before this forecast concludes with many questions to answer. For instance will US unemployment keep rising? Is the yield curve inversion panic now over? Will the Fed do another flip flop and start hiking interest rates again? All of which will have a baring on what happens later in the year. But for now I see a Santa rally as being probable, and likely to take the Dow to another new all time high, well beyond the 28k forecast above, and may even achieve the 30k milestone. Anyway everything will become clear with the benefit of hindsight which I am sure many will point out to me, perhaps asking why I did not forecast that the Dow would hit 30k in September 2019, when with hindsight it was so obvious!

Again for immediate first Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. Which includes my latest analysis on investing in the machine intelligence mega-trend i.e. the Top 10 AI stocks to invest in to profit from the machine intelligence mega-trend.

Your analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.