Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Bullhorns Quieted for a Day, at Least

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019 Feb 22, 2019 - 05:16 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Commodities

Over in the gold patch things went from disinterested and downright antagonistic (A Notable Lack of Interest in Gold) to sleepy (Gold “Community” Crickets) to ferociously over bullish.

Any long-time and right minded gold bug will tell you that the latter condition is usually a signal to prepare for some turbulence.checkWednesday and Thursday brought the turbulence in the form of a reversal and pullback for gold, silver and the miners.

Since we became constructive on the gold sector in Q4 2018 (per the links above and especially NFTRH reports/updates) the groundswell of gold boosting (pom poms and all) has steadily risen since it became obvious that something bullish was going on in January. And it appears that last week’s breakout from various daily chart bull flags in gold, silver and the miners finally jerked ’em all in. Enter the Thursday pullback.


In the very few days immediately before that $20/oz. pullback the gold “community” threw itself a gathering of the bullish clans. On just a quick look around the gold websites some quotes popped out from 2 days before the pullback, and one day before Wednesday’s reversal. It’s crickets no more…

“It’s been a long time coming so enjoy this day as there will be many more to come. It’s just getting started.” (2.19.19)

“Gold appears to be rallying from the final right shoulder in a multi-shouldered inverse H&S bull continuation pattern. Incredibly, that pattern itself appears to be just the head of a much more gargantuan pattern with a target price of $3000!” (2.19.19)

“What is going on is that gold is in the early stages of a parabolic slingshot uptrend as shown, that should soon vault it above the key resistance approaching and around $1400. Once it breaks above this resistance it is expected to accelerate dramatically.” (2.19.19)

Now, I am not going to affirm or dispute the bullish views above. The point of this article is only to note that these views are coming out of the woodwork across the “gold analyst” community. At points of max greed and max enthusiasm, the precious metals get bonked. It’s almost ritualistic. Sentimentrader has been showing gold sentiment as ‘over bullish’ for some time now and on Thursday we finally got a pullback (to the first valid support area at the top of the bull flag).

This satisfies gold for a sharp pullback to clean out sentiment to a degree, short-term. If the rally to big picture resistance is still on, it need not drop further. But a very key support area now surrounding 1290 is also noted per this chart from a recent NFTRH update. We have after all, noted sharp reactions in many markets after the public is subjected to the old “GOLDEN CROSS!!” routine by the media. Gold’s golden cross of the SMA 50 above the SMA 200 came in January.

Indeed, gold seems destined to reach the key bear/bull line of demarcation before long for another kick at the bullish can per the monthly chart below.

What does gold have going for it, technically? Well, for one thing the more times a resistance area is tested (this would be in essence, #4) the weaker it tends to become.

What does gold have going against it, from a sentiment standpoint? Everybody… you, me, grandma and grandpa all see that bear/bull line. What’s more, so too does a “community” of gold experts who’ve waited years to be able to bullhorn the news of gold’s inevitable $3000/oz. price.

As for the silver chart above, it is really not relevant to this article. It’s just part of a chart sometimes used in NFTRH for bigger picture perspective on the metals. However, silver bugs will note that there is a lot of price inflation that needs to take place before they may pronounce a new bull market.

This is not a fundamental article and not much a technical one either. There are lots more signals, time frames and fundamental considerations we are tracking consistently, as we have been since the crickets were the loudest sound in the “community”. But a couple of points can be taken from the above…

  1. Gold is still in a bullish trend after taking a much needed sentiment haircut and…
  2. though we have several positive indicators and technical trends in play (for gold and the miners) it’s not in the bag yet. Don’t let the increasingly bullish pronouncements now on display convince you otherwise.

If gold and gold stocks do continue to grind out a bullish trend and trip our indicators (one of which in particular is on the verge) there will be plenty of time and opportunity to position more seriously for a real bull phase. But it is not advised to let starry eyed bullish pronouncements stimulate your bullish emotions.

Now, if you want to read some comprehensive and quality fundamental (and bullish) analysis on gold check out this report from Sprott portfolio manager (and NFTRH subscriber, ;-)), Trey Reik: 2019 Top 10 List. For a bit of a cautionary view, you can also check out Tom McClellan’s latest article: Gold’s Fellow Travelers Refute its Higher High (why not bring in a range of views, amid the gathering bullishness?).

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $33.50 or a 14% discounted yearly at USD $345.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, interim market updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas, all archived/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar and get even more by joining our free eLetter. Or follow via Twitter ;@BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2019 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in