Most Popular
1. THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends - Rambus_Chartology
5.Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.PPT HALTS STOCK MARKET CRASH ahead of Fed May Interest Rate Hike Meeting - Nadeem_Walayat
8.50 Small Cap Growth Stocks Analysis to CAPITALISE on the Stock Market Inflation -Nadeem_Walayat
9.WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING MARKET - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Where’s my self-driving car? - 16th Aug 22
Real Reason why Pakistan and India Gained Independence in 1947 at 75th Anniversary - 16th Aug 22
Electronic Payments Can Benefit Your Business - Here’s How - 16th Aug 22
Qualcom Stock Market Harbinger - 12th Aug 22
Apple Exec Gets World's 1st iPhone 14 for Daughters 14th Birthday Surprise Present Unboxing! - 12th Aug 22
Steps to remember while playing live roulette online - 12th Aug 22
China Bank Run Protests - Another Potential Tiananmen Square Massacre? - 11th Aug 22
Silver Coin Premiums – Another Collapse? - 11th Aug 22
Gold-to-Silver Ratio Heading Lower – Setup Like 1989-03 - 11th Aug 22
Severe Stocks Bear Market: Will You Be Among the Prepared 1.5%? - 11th Aug 22
There's a Hole in My Bucket Dear Liza, UK Summer Heatwave Plants Watering Problem Song - 11th Aug 22
Why PEAK INFLATION is a RED HERRING! Prepare for a Decade Long Cost of Living Crisis - 9th Aug 22
FREETRADE Want to LEND My Shares to Short Sellers! - 8th Aug 22
Stock Market Unclosed Gap - 8th Aug 22
The End Game for Silver Shenanigans... - 8th Aug 22er
WARNING Corsair MP600 NVME2 M2 SSD Are Prone to Failure Can Prevent Systems From Booting - 8th Aug 22
Elliott Waves: Your "Rhyme & Reason" to Mainstream Stock Market Opinions - 6th Aug 22
COST OF LIVING CRISIS NIGHTMARE - Expect High INFLATION for whole of this DECADE! - 6th Aug 22
WHY PEAK INFLATION RED HERRING - 5th Aug 22
Recession Is Good for Gold, but a Crisis Would Be Even Better - 5th Aug 22
Stock Market Rallying On Slowly Thinning Air - 5th Aug 22
SILVER’S BAD BREAK - 5th Aug 22
Stock Market Trend Pattren 2022 Forecast Current State - 4th Aug 22
Should We Be Prepared For An Aggressive U.S. Fed In The Future? - 4th Aug 22
Will the S&P 500 Stock Market Index Go the Way of Meme Stocks? - 4th Aug 22
Stock Market Another Upswing Attempt - 4th Aug 22
What is our Real Economic and Financial Prognosis? - 4th Aug 22
The REAL Stocks Bear Market of 2022 - 3rd Aug 22
The ‘Wishful Thinking’ Fed Is Anything But ‘Neutral’ - 3rd Aug 22
Don’t Be Misled by Gold’s Recent Upswing - 3rd Aug 22
Aluminum, Copper, Zinc: The 3 Horsemen of the Upcoming "Econocalypse" - 31st July 22
Gold Stocks’ Rally Autumn 2022 - 31st July 22
US Fed Is Battling Excess Global Capital – Which Is Creating Inflation - 31st July 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Removing the Cloak from Gold

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Nov 27, 2018 - 05:23 PM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Commodities

The new Alchemist is out. What can we learn from the latest publication of the LBMA? We invite you to read our today’s article and find out!

Banque de France and Gold

The latest edition of LBMA’s Alchemist focuses on the role of central banks in the gold market. Sylvie Goulard, Deputy Governor of Banque de France, wrote the first article, entitled Banque de France and Gold: Past and Future. . According to her, the central bank of France has always been a major player in the gold market. Indeed, in the 19th century, Paris was a major gold centre, while Napoleon (20 franc gold coin) was one of the iconic coins of the 19th and 20th century. And, since its creation in 1800, the Banque de France has held one of the largest gold and silver reserves in the world.


Even today, although French people use euro, which is purely fiat currency, the central bank holds about 60 percent of its total reserves in gold! In physical terms, the Banque de France maintains above 2,436 tons of bullion, which places it right behind the podium, as only the US, Germany and Italy (and the IMF) keep more gold in the vaults of their central banks. It means that France’s national gold reserves are valued at around $96 billion, or about 4 percent of the country’s GDP.

The interesting thing is that the Banque de France stores its gold in the famous Souterraine, which is a huge underground vault situated 29 meters below the level of the River Seine, street level (or 40 m below the suspended auditorium).

Removing the Cloak from Central Bank Gold Operations

Another insightful article about the links between central banks and gold is Removing the Cloak from Central Bank Gold Operations by Isabelle Strauss-Kahn, who is a consultant now, but previously worked for the Banque de France, the World Bank, and the Bank of International Settlements.

She describes a few interesting periods of the gold market. One of them is the so-called Brown Bottom, or the sale of more than half of the UK’s gold reserves in a series of auctions to be operated by the Bank of England. The price of gold dropped as a result, as the sales exacerbated the fear that some big gold holders, such as European central banks would follow, especially in the context of introduction of the euro, and the price of gold would collapse. This is why the first Central Bank Gold Agreement was signed in Washington DC on 26th of September
1999 to limit official sales and reduce uncertainty in the market, setting the psychological stage for the next gold bull market.

The author concludes that central banks still do consider gold as a reserve asset which is useful to hold, even if it does not pay any dividend or a high return.

Recession, Rates, and the US Retail Investor

The last article we would like to discuss is the Recession, Rates, and the US Retail Investor by Suki Cooper, Precious Metals Analyst at Standard Chartered Bank. The article is not about central banks, but it provides a few interesting insights about the gold market outlook. For example, she forecasts US GDP growth to slow to 2.6 from 2.9 percent in 2018. Given that we are unlikely to see a recession in 2019 in the US, while inflation will not rise much above the Fed’s target, gold prices will not rally significantly. However, the author maintains positive outlook for gold prices and expects them to trade towards $1,300 per ounce over the coming months.

The justification for the bullish forecast is that the Fed should enter the final stages of its hiking cycle, possibly falling behind the curve. But the US central bank does not seem to want to drop its policy of gradual tightening of its monetary policy. The trade wars are also cited as a supportive factor. However, the impact of geopolitical risks on gold prices is often overstated. Surely, if the renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine transform into something larger, we could see a short-term gains in gold. But investors should remember that numerous risks have recently failed to trigger a flight into gold. Stay tuned!

Thank you.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would you like to know more about the gold ETFs and their impact on gold price, we invite you to read the April Market Overview report. If you're interested in the detailed price analysis and price projections with targets, we invite you to sign up for our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts . If you're not ready to subscribe at this time, we invite you to sign up for our gold newsletter and stay up-to-date with our latest free articles. It's free and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieron Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in