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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Sep 11, 2008 - 10:10 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe September NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline but remains below broken support marked by July's low crossing at 1765.25. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline below July's low, March's low crossing at 1693.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing near 1870.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.


The September S&P 500 index closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1271.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes last week's decline, July's low crossing at 1201.00 is the next downside target.

The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,431. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,457 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If the Dow renews last week's decline, July's low crossing at 10,827 is the next downside target.

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INTEREST RATES

December T-bonds closed down 16/32's at 119-22.

December T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking triggered by strength in the equity markets. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, monthly resistance crossing at 122-26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 117-24 are needed to confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 120-12. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 122-26. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118-23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117-24.    

ENERGY MARKETS
October crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. October continues to extend this week's decline as the threat of hurricane IKE has greatly been reduced to the oilrigs and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level crossing at 100.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.49 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is broken support marked by the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 108.86. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 109.48. First support is today's low crossing at 101.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 100.48.

October heating oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this summer's decline. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this summer's decline, the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 282.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 306.84. Second resistance is broken support marked by the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 308.93. First support is today's low crossing at 286.66. Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 282.10.

October unleaded gas closed higher due to light short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 268.99. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this summer's decline, the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 248.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 283.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 278.94. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 283.80. First support is today's low crossing at 261.73. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 260.82.

October Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.912 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 6.980 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.636. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.912. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 7.028. Second support is monthly support crossing at 6.980.

CURRENCIES

The December Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this summer's rally and spiked above broken monthly support crossing at 80.48. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 82.00 it the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.52. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 82.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.21.

 
The December Euro closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this week's decline below the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 140.947. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 137.928 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.967 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 143.160. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.967. First support is today's low crossing at 139.370. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2007- 2008-rally crossing at 137.928.

The December British Pound posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.7062 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.8084 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.7712. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.8084. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.7350. Second support is weekly support crossing near 1.7062.

The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline below the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .9028. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's decline the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at .8762 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9069 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8995. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9069. First support is Monday's low crossing at .8804. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .8767.

The December Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. If December extends this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 91.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 95.91 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 94.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 95.91. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 92.70. Second support is monthly support crossing at 91.80.

The December Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9238 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at .9715 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at .9430. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at .9528. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9298. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9238.

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PRECIOUS METALS
October gold closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below August's low crossing at 774.00 as it renewed the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008 rally crossing at 709.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 810.50 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 810.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 845.70. First support is today's low crossing at 753.50. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 709.50.

December silver closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline below August's low crossing at 13.305. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 10.550 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.170 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.696. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.170. First support is today's low crossing at 10.740. Second support is monthly support crossing at 10.550.

December copper closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, last December's low crossing at 289.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 332.24 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is broken support marked by the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 318.18. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 324.86. First support is today's low crossing at 304.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 303.96.  

FOOD & FIBER

December coffee closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.286 confirming that a short-
term top has been posted. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 13.515 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 14.80 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.  

December cocoa posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 24.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 27.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

October sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last week's high. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at 11.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

October cotton gapped down and close lower on Wednesday extending this month's decline. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

December Corn closed down 7 3/4-cents at 5.36 3/4.

December corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish but oversold warning bears to use caution as a short-term low might be in or is near. If December extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 5.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.64 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.31 1/2. Second support is August's low crossing at 5.05. 

December wheat closed down 4 3/4-cents at 7.25 3/4.

December wheat closed lower on Wednesday extending this week's decline below the lower boundary of this summer's trading range crossing at 7.68. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, last November's low crossing at 6.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the September 2nd gap crossing at 7.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

December Kansas City Wheat closed down 8-cents at 7.64.

December Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends last week's breakout below the lower boundary of this summer's trading range crossing at 8.09 1/2. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 6.88 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's gap crossing at 8.14 would signal that the gap was an exhaustion gap marking a potential bottom. However, it will take closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.62 to confirm that a bottom has been posted.

December Minneapolis wheat closed down 9 1/4-cents at 7.90.

December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday extending this month's decline. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 rally crossing at 6.88 3/4 is the next downside target. If December fills last Friday's gap crossing at 8.39 would greatly increase the odds that the gap was an exhaustion gap thereby signaling that a low has likely been posted.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
November soybeans closed down 23-cents at 11.78.

November soybeans posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally but remains above key support marked by August's low crossing at 11.74. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish but oversold hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If November fills last Friday's gap crossing at 12.33, it would confirm that the gap marked an exhaustion gap signaling that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at 10.60 is the next downside target.
December soybean meal closed down $8.20 at $325.80.

December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-
range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, August's low crossing at 3.13 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's gap crossing at 338.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 348.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December soybean oil closed down 49 pts. at 48.32.

December soybean oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it extends last week's decline below the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 49.77. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 45.02 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's gap crossing at 50.23 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

LIVESTOCK

October hogs closed up $0.60 at $67.50.

October hogs posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the April low crossing at 65.25 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at 68.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 68.70. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 68.73. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 66.80. Second support is the April 3rd gap crossing at 66.75.

February bellies closed up $1.07 at $85.72.

February bellies closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline but remains below March's low crossing at 85.50. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 80.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 88.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

October cattle closed down $1.00 at 101.65.

October cattle closed lower on Wednesday extending this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 101.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

October feeder cattle closed down $1.52 at $108.90.

October Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the previous reaction low crossing at 109.65 thereby renewing the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends last month's decline, March's low crossing at 104.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted

By INO.com

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