Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" - 27th Jun 20
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals - 27th Jun 20
Why People Have Always Held Gold - 27th Jun 20
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance - 27th Jun 20
INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth - 25th Jun 20
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here - 25th Jun 20
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong - 25th Jun 20
Silver Price Trend Analysis - 24th Jun 20
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started - 24th Jun 20
Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal - 24th Jun 20
WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised - 24th Jun 20
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold - 24th Jun 20
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range - 23rd Jun 20
Elon Musk Mocks Nikola Motors as “Dumb.” Is He Right? - 23rd Jun 20
MICROSOFT Transforming from PC Software to Cloud Services AI, Deep Learning Giant - 23rd Jun 20
Stock Market Decline Resumes - 22nd Jun 20
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead - 22nd Jun 20
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? - 22nd Jun 20
Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? - 22nd Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

7 Things to Remember When Inflation Returns

Economics / Inflation Aug 30, 2016 - 05:18 PM GMT

By: John_Mauldin

Economics

The problem for much of the global economy since the Financial Crisis of 2008 has been a lack of inflation. The banking system seized up, and loans were hard to come by for a couple of years. This shock hurt economic growth and knocked inflation down to near zero. Many major economies were hit with outright deflation.

In response, global central banks—including the US Federal Reserve—began a massive series of stimulus programs. The goal was to help their national economies get back on track. But, the results have been mixed. The US economy is one of the few to show signs of life over the last year or so.


Although there has been a downward trend in GDP for the last few quarters, the US economy grew at a solid 3% clip barely a year ago. Many economists expect a return to 2% plus annual growth within six months.

Economies tend to move in cycles. So, we will undoubtedly see a return to inflation. In fact, there are signs that suggest inflation is starting to pick up in the US.

Food prices have been moving up. Oil and other commodity prices are also gradually inching up. This means producers are paying more for materials, while consumers are paying more for goods and services.

Wages in the US are starting to increase again, and more money in consumers’ pockets is vital for an expansionary economic cycle.

Inflation will not happen overnight. The process will play out over months as the economy revs back up. Make sure you’re ready with these seven important things to keep in mind when inflation returns.

Each inflation cycle is unique

An analysis of historical inflation cycles shows that every cycle is unique. This means you can’t count on real estate and mining stocks to move up during this inflationary cycle just because they did the last time. You have to understand what is similar and what is different about today's macroeconomic situation to make accurate predictions.

For example, will real estate keep going up rapidly when interest rates start moving up, especially since both home and commercial real estate prices have increased a lot in the last few years? These are the kinds of questions you need to ask when investing in an inflationary environment.

That said, you don’t want to get too fancy. After some due diligence, as long as you’re investing in a firm with solid management and a well-thought-out business model, there’s every reason to expect it will continue to perform well during times of inflation.

Income/Wealth inequality will get worse

All of us feel the effects of inflation. This is especially true for the poor. Inflation acts as a tax and has a regressive impact on lower-income individuals and families. This is because those with limited budgets and little to no savings spend a higher share of income on the basics—food, shelter, utilities, transportation, etc. It’s a different story for those with more money.

If you’re only spending 25% of your income on life’s essentials, a 10% rate of inflation is hardly noticeable. If “the basics” consume 95% of a family’s income, a 10% rise in costs means a cut in spending just to get by.

Interest rates will climb

Interest rates paid on bank deposits by the central bank are one of the key tools central bankers use to control inflation. The rates set by central banks (like the Fed) are the primary factor in the rates paid by banks on deposits or the rates they charge for loans.

The inflation-fighting logic is that raising interest rates will discourage people from taking out loans. This, in turn, slows down an economy.

By the same token, decreasing interest rates stimulates an economy by encouraging lending. The US Fed just began to move up interest rates a few months ago, but has not taken any further steps.

Given the current macroeconomic situation, it’s likely interest rates will go up. The key questions are… when will the Fed act? and how much will the FOMC boost rates?

Bond prices will fall

Bond prices are inflation sensitive. When interest rates go up, bond prices fall because the lower yield offered on the older bonds is now being eaten up by inflation.

When the economy starts to rev, and the Fed finally gets serious about normalizing interest rates, you can expect bond prices to drop and bond yields to climb. The key is timing.

Wages will rise

Inflation also boosts wages… over time. At some point, inflation takes too big of a bite out of workers lifestyles. When it does, employers have to raise wages to avoid unhappy employees (falling productivity, etc.).

That said, it does take some time for wages to chase inflation. Wage increases are typically doled out every six months or a year. That gives employers a chance to phase in higher wage costs to minimize the impact on their bottom line. But it also means that wages never quite keep up with costs.

Capital investment may decline

History shows that when inflation becomes a big concern, capital spending goes down. High inflation (or large swings in the inflation rate) lowers business confidence about future costs and a company’s ability to raise prices. And this uncertainty can lead to reduced capital investment spending.

3% US inflation could arrive sooner than you think

Determining current inflation rates is pretty basic. But, to project what inflation will look like in six months, a year, or two years from now is much trickier.

This is especially true in expansionary cycles, ie, times of increasing inflation. The current inflation rate in the US is around 1%. Economists at the World Bank (known for their conservative approach) project that the US inflation rate (CPI) will hit 2.5% in 2018 or 2019.

Join Hundreds of Thousands of Readers of John Mauldin’s Free Weekly Newsletter

Follow Mauldin as he uncovers the truth behind, and beyond, the financial headlines in his free publication, Thoughts from the Frontline. The publication explores developments overlooked by mainstream news and analyzes challenges and opportunities on the horizon.

John Mauldin Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules