Trump Puts The Idea of a US Government Debt Default On The Table
ElectionOracle / US Debt May 09, 2016 - 03:34 PM GMTBy: Jeff_Berwick
On Thursday, Donald Trump told CNBC that his solution to dealing with the $19 trillion-plus national debt involves a form of default such as repurchasing existing bonds at a discount.
The media jumped all over him calling his idea "insane” and warning that it would tank the economy or set off an “unprecedented financial crisis.”
They are right that it would set off an unprecedented financial crisis... but, believe it or not, that is the best-case scenario at this point. Not defaulting would lead to hyperinflation which would be even worse.
There is no easy way out of the US government's predicament... something we've been talking about here since 2010. The path is unsustainable and the dollar will collapse at some pesoint. The only question is whether it is through outright default or through hyperinflation.
Of course, if there is anyone better at knowing how to default on debt and go into bankruptcy, we can't think of one. Trump himself said as much. "I am the king of debt," he said, alluding to his corporate bankruptcies and use of leverage to build his real estate empire. "I love debt. I love playing with it."
America may have found the right man for the job, then! Because the US federal government debt will be over $20 trillion before he could even being to "play with it."
His "crazy" idea of defaulting on the debt, if he lived up to his promise, is actually the best-case scenario for the American people if that means allowing interest rates and other prices to "normalize" through a liquidation. A default might allow the economy to return to sustainable patterns of production. It could fix the savings-investment dilemma and fix other imbalances that rely on interest rate suppression, which in turn is intended to hide the true extent of the government's insolvency.
The alternative, as I said, is hyperinflation... and that would be far worse. Economic activity would essentially cease to occur. Nearly everyone, except those who owned hard assets like gold and silver - or even bitcoin - would be brutally impoverished. I just returned from Venezuela where they have now entered into hyperinflation and, believe me, you don't want to go there.
So, if Trump somehow gets past the rigged election process, the rigged voting machines and hanging chads, evades assassination attempts, becomes President AND defaults on the debt without Congress, the media and even the American people filibustering and rioting to stop him... what would happen?
The plain answer is: nobody knows. Even Trump doesn't have a clear idea on how to, what he calls "restructure", the debt. Anything less than defaulting on 50% of the current debt may not be significant given the US government's overall financial situation. But, if he does default on 50% or more of the current debt, what would happen?
Again, nobody knows. US Treasury debt is so massive and widely held that there is no saying what such a dramatic write-down would set off. Pretty much, overnight, most major banks, corporations and even governments would be potentially insolvent as a large amount of their assets were heavily "discounted."
And, no one would know who was or wasn't insolvent. Haircuts could occur across the board! It'd set off a cascading effect of fear as everyone tried to sell everything all at once, certainly causing a stock market collapse that could easily be well over 90%. The bond market would be similar.
Interest rates would skyrocket into the double digits, and maybe higher. Instantly, US consumers, loaded with debt and mortgages would be bankrupt... which would set off a further sell-off.
By the time it all settled there quite easily could be nothing left. And, remember, this is the BEST case scenario! Hyperinflation would be worse.
This is the "rock and the hard place" we've been talking about since the beginning of this decade. Some call us "doom and gloomers" but these are just facts. If you don't want facts then just keep watching CNN and CNBC. We have reached the end of this debt-based, fractional reserve, Keynesian central banking, socialist/fascist democratic nation-state system. Economic law always wins in the end and the economics of this system were doomed since the beginning.
It got bad when the US went from a republic to a democracy; it got worse when the US instituted a federal income tax and formed its third central bank, the Federal Reserve in 1913; and it got downright chaotic when any vestige of gold backing the US dollar, and henceforth all fiat currencies, was removed in 1971.
And now we've reached a point where a Presidential candidate is talking about a US government default... one that would lead to the worst worldwide depression in human history. And, yet, this is the best case scenario!
On the bright side, no matter what the US government does, if you are prepared (via prudent ownership of gold, silver and other assets) to survive this biblical collapse, you could be the beneficiary of a historical, generational transfer of wealth, maybe the greatest ever.
It is clear it is coming, yet your average American is more preoccupied with who should be forced to use which bathroom, or the NBA playoffs, than preparing for a collapse of biblical proportions.
Trump has made a dollar default part of the public conversation now - and this will make the dollar itself even more shaky. And that brings a default closer. The reality is that the dollar is in an untenable position due to domestic political and economic actions. Serial wars, a further socialized health care system and other massive expenditures have undermined any hope of US fiscal solvency.
What is most important to realize in this Jubilee Year is that the dollar's position is not an accident. Globalists want an international currency and are gradually destabilizing the dollar to get one. It's not a coincidence that the Bush/Obama policies were so similar and destructive. They are doing what they are told.
Here at TDV we don't take anything for granted when it comes to the US paper dollar and have been suggesting alternative, non-fiat holdings for years now. Bitcoin, gold and silver are all non-government money and much more likely to hold value than paper currency. We've already been making a fortune with our stance and we think it is just the beginning. Our metals picks have virtually doubled, and subscribers, new and old, have made significant profits.
To find out the most efficient ways to gain access to real money and to find out what may be coming next for central banks, please consider a TDV newsletter subscription HERE.
Anarcho-Capitalist. Libertarian. Freedom fighter against mankind’s two biggest enemies, the State and the Central Banks. Jeff Berwick is the founder of The Dollar Vigilante, CEO of TDV Media & Services and host of the popular video podcast, Anarchast. Jeff is a prominent speaker at many of the world’s freedom, investment and gold conferences as well as regularly in the media.
© 2016 Copyright Jeff Berwick - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.
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