Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds - 20th Sep 19
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash - 20th Sep 19
Uber Stock Price Will Crash on November 6 - 20th Sep 19
Semiconductor Stocks Sector Market & Economic Leader - 20th Sep 19
Learning Artificial Intelligence - What is a Neural Network? - 20th Sep 19
Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom - 20th Sep 19
Small Marketing Budget? No Problem! - 20th Sep 19
The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us - 19th Sep 19
Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again - 19th Sep 19
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video - 19th Sep 19
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World - 19th Sep 19
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups - 19th Sep 19
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? - 19th Sep 19
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19
Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy - 11th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I - 11th Sep 19
Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting - 11th Sep 19
Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed - 11th Sep 19
Boris Johnson a Crippled Prime Minister - 11th Sep 19
Gold Significant Correction Has Started - 11th Sep 19
Reasons To Follow Experienced Traders In Automated Trading - 11th Sep 19
Silver's Sharp Reaction Back - 11th Sep 19
2020 Will Be the Most Volatile Market Year in History - 11th Sep 19
Westminister BrExit Extreme Chaos Puts Britain into a Pre-Civil War State - 10th Sep 19
Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally - 10th Sep 19
Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future - 10th Sep 19
The Online Gaming Industry is Going Up - 10th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 17th March 2007

Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market Mar 17, 2007 - 12:23 PM GMT

By: Mike_Burk

Stock-Markets

The good news is: The weakness that began late last month should end soon, although, there is likely to be one more leg down.

Short Term
New lows dry up quickly after a bottom has been reached.

The first chart is an update of one I showed last week, it covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in brown. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the first trading day of each month and NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis to make the chart easier to read (up is good).


The indicator moved sharply downward on Tuesday and Wednesday last week. It is prudent to wait until the indicator has been moving upward for 5 consecutive days before getting optimistic.

The next chart is similar to the previous one except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) and OTC NL calculated from NASDAQ new lows.

OTC NL has been weaker than NY NL

There were 127 NASDAQ new lows on Tuesday and 149 on Wednesday and 78 and 89 on the NYSE. These numbers are large enough to suggest caution.

Intermediate term

A summation index (SI) is a running total of oscillator values. When the oscillator is positive the SI moves upward and when it is negative the SI moves downward.

The chart below shows the OTC in red and SI's calculated from oscillators of NASDAQ advancing issues - declining issues, new highs - new lows and upside volume - downside volume.

SI's are a measure of the market's internal strength and they are all moving sharply downward.

The next chart covers the past year showing the OTC in red and a NASDAQ downside volume indicator (OTC DV) in blue. OTC DV is a 4% trend (39 day EMA) of NASDAQ downside volume plotted on an inverted Y axis. OTC DV rises quickly after a bottom has been reached and that has not happened yet.

Seasonality

Next week includes the week prior to the 4th Friday of March.

The tables below show OTC data from 1963 - 2003 during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and SPX data beginning with 1955.

Data prior to 1953 has been ignored because the market traded 6 days a week.

The program chokes when Good Friday falls on the 4th Friday of March. That is why there are zeros for every day in 1959 and 1975.

There are summaries for both the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.

The SPX as had a negative bias over all periods for the week while the OTC has had a slightly positive bias during the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle.

Report for the week before the 4th Friday of March
The number following the year is the position in the presidential cycle.
Daily returns from Monday through the 4th Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 3
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1963-3 0.39% -0.29% -0.13% 0.35% 0.06% 0.39%
1967-3 0.66% 0.16% 0.69% 0.20% 0.32% 2.04%
1971-3 -0.38% -0.25% -0.39% -0.10% 0.45% -0.66%
1975-3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1979-3 0.46% -0.27% 0.50% 0.49% 0.38% 1.57%
1983-3 0.50% 0.45% 0.65% 0.41% 0.19% 2.20%
Avg 0.31% 0.02% 0.36% 0.25% 0.34% 1.29%
1987-3 -0.36% 0.02% -0.15% 0.28% -0.42% -0.63%
1991-3 0.00% -0.74% 0.71% -0.32% -0.10% -0.45%
1995-3 0.27% -0.09% -0.08% 0.28% 0.90% 1.27%
1999-3 -1.06% -3.05% 1.83% 2.94% -0.64% 0.02%
2003-3 -3.66% 1.55% -0.26% -0.23% -1.06% -3.66%
Avg -0.96% -0.46% 0.41% 0.59% -0.27% -0.69%
OTC summary for Presidential year 3 1963 - 2003
Avg -0.32% -0.25% 0.34% 0.43% 0.01% 0.21%
Win% 50% 40% 50% 70% 60% 60%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2006
Avg -0.24% -0.19% 0.10% 0.13% 0.08% -0.12%
Win% 47% 42% 50% 61% 53% 55%
SPX Presidential Year 3
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1955-3 -0.64% 0.61% 1.30% 0.79% 0.08% 2.15%
1959-3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1963-3 -0.49% -0.21% 0.73% -0.15% 0.52% 0.40%
1967-3 -0.08% 0.04% -0.20% -0.03% -0.55% -0.82%
1971-3 -0.39% -0.34% -0.66% -0.01% 0.34% -1.05%
1975-3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1979-3 0.37% -0.55% 0.75% 0.41% -0.07% 0.91%
1983-3 0.86% -0.35% 1.43% 0.37% -0.46% 1.85%
Avg 0.19% -0.30% 0.33% 0.18% -0.18% 0.22%
1987-3 1.00% 0.16% -0.42% 0.18% -1.60% -0.67%
1991-3 -0.40% -1.48% 0.36% -0.36% 0.25% -1.64%
1995-3 0.13% -0.22% 0.12% 0.06% 1.01% 1.10%
1999-3 -0.18% -2.69% 0.52% 1.69% -0.56% -1.22%
2003-3 -3.52% 1.22% -0.55% -0.16% -0.58% -3.60%
Avg -0.59% -0.60% 0.01% 0.28% -0.29% -1.20%
SPX summary for Presidential Year 3 1955 - 2003
Avg -0.30% -0.35% 0.31% 0.25% -0.15% -0.24%
Win% 36% 36% 64% 55% 45% 45%
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2006
Avg -0.12% -0.02% -0.03% -0.05% -0.08% -0.31%
Win% 38% 47% 43% 43% 49% 36%

The Alpha Fund (APHAX)
The Alpha Fund, which I manage, opened last October.

Last week YTD
APHAX -0.8% +1.9%

For information about the fund go to: http://www.thealphafunds.com/index.htm . The fund now has service class shares available.

Conclusion

Last week new lows came close to their highest levels of this decline which were reached on March 5. Seasonally next week has been weak and there is no evidence the decline is over.

I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday March 23 than they were on Friday March 16.

Last week's positive forecast based on modest seasonal strength was a miss.

By Mike Burke

Mike Burk is an employee and principle of Alpha Investment Management (Alpha) a registered investment advisor. Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy. The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. To subscribe to this report : http://alphaim.net/signup.html


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules