Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Silver Price Remains in Long-term Downtrend

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Jul 13, 2015 - 06:11 AM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

Commodities

It's a strange situation - the long-term charts for silver continue to look awful, but there has been a quite dramatic improvement in its COTs, which now look positive, with readings that in the past have consistently lead to rallies. However, this doesn't mean that any rally that develops soon will succeed in breaking silver out of its long downtrend.

Silver's 8-year chart shows the as yet unrelenting downtrend from its 2011 highs involving a classic "staircase" decline. On this chart it looks set to drop again, but perhaps after another rally first towards the upper boundary of the downtrend channel.


Silver 8-Year Chart

The latest COT is, or should be, encouraging for bulls as it shows that Large Specs have now given up on silver almost completely, with their long positions falling to a very low level. This is what happened last November ahead of a significant rally in January. In itself this COT chart is viewed as strongly bullish.

Silver COT

The 1-year chart shows that silver broke lower last week, but not below its November - December lows where there is quite strong support, and then bounced back later in the week to recoup the losses. So we are at a good point for a rally to develop, although the lurking danger of a drop to new lows is emphasized by the bunching of the price with its bearishly aligned descending moving averages not far above.

Silver 1-Year Chart

Taking all of the above into consideration what could happen is a rally soon back towards or to the upper boundary of the major downtrend channel, which, depending on how things develop, could be followed by a reversal leading to a possible break to new lows later.

The Silver Hedgers chart, a form of long-term COT, now looks quite strongly bullish, although it could get even more so. By itself this suggests a rally soon.

Silver Hedgers Position
Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The Silver Optix chart is now quite strongly bullish too - more evidence of a least a short-term rally in the offing.

Silver Optix
Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

Finally, it is worth keeping in mind that we are now entering the most bullish time of year for gold, as the seasonal chart below shows...

What happens to silver now - and gold - depends in large part on how things pan out between Greece and the EU, which will determine the course of the euro, and thus the dollar, which has been discussed in the parallel Gold Market update.

Conclusion: Silver remains in a long-term downtrend until proven otherwise by a base pattern completing or a breakout from this downtrend on strong volume occurs. COTs are now looking more positive than for a long time, suggesting that there is a good chance of a rally developing soon. Over the short-term what happens depends on whether Greece accedes to the demands of the EU and sticks with the euro, or walks away.

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

For billing & subscription questions: subscriptions@clivemaund.com

© 2015 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in