Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Welcome, Baby 2015

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015 Jan 02, 2015 - 12:58 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Stock-Markets

So Baby 2015 has slammed the book on wrinkled old 2014 (this imagery just cracks me up), a year that featured the continuation of existing macro trends like US stocks up, global stocks wobbling, precious metals weak and commodities weak to tanking.

Personally, I found the year revolting as an honest market participant, but thankfully made like a caveman and simply used my tools to help me avoid the pitfalls of my emotions and logical mind.  I try very hard to tune down the Tin Foil Hat stuff, but I continue to be in awe of Policy Central and the depths of what looks to me like depravity that they will stoop to in order to keep up appearances.  Reference Operation Twist and its “inflation sanitized” selling of short-term notes and buying of long-term bonds.


Who would’ve thought managing an economy and a financial system could be so easy, so controlled and well, so sanitary?  Of course, that was way back in 2011, when the macro began to quake in anticipation of change.  An anti-market (AKA gold) was brought under control but good and though the masses would hold tightly to their fear (so deeply ingrained from 2008) for another year or more, 2013 and 2014 saw increasing momentum toward a complete recovery of hurt feelings from the 2008 crisis time frame.

This one act of man (among all the others that came before and after it) inflicted upon markets came in tandem with a profound change on the macro as illustrated by the chart of gold vs. the S&P 500.  We can complain all we want (and I sure did my share of it) or cry foul but the chart has been the grim reality for three years now.

Why is it grim reality when it accompanied an era of increased money creation but no inflationary repercussions and to boot, strengthening economic activity?  Well, I am afraid I don’t have that answer yet other than to continually parrot that for every action there is a roughly equal and opposite reaction and that you don’t get somethin’ for nuthin’.

My market report is named Notes From the Rabbit Hole for just this reason; sometimes things are not readily quantifiable at their essence by normal metrics.  Until the last few months when the US stock market began to decouple from its normal fundamentals, we had noted that the market was not particularly over valued and certainly not in a bubble.  It was monetary policy – running 24/7 since 2008 – that was in a bubble.

Today, some aspects of that policy have been altered and even withdrawn, and 2015 promises to introduce new dynamics into the picture as QE’s money creation fades and the ‘will they or won’t they?’ interest rate hype comes to the fore.  But a big point for contrarians to take note of is that the events that culminated in the figurative end of the (financial) world in Q4 2008 are now closed out.  They never happened.  The of the gap on the chart above says so.

Speaking of gaps, NFTRH.com would like to wish you a Gappy New Year with its routine management of daily charts of the RUT, NDX, SPX and Dow.

Back on message, here is another chart I keep close by among the hundreds of indicators (seen LIBOR lately?) and reference points available.  It is the very simple view of a dysfunctional Treasury bond market climbing higher and higher over the decades, ostensibly because their is no inflation problem.  Yet as we all know the CPI has a funny way of not only not giving back the cost pressures of previous inflationary operations, but certain segments of the economy are building cost pressures.  These are of course due to the inflation that has been running since 2008 and really, 2001 or so when Alan Greenspan really kicked off the age of ‘Inflation onDemand’ ©.

I want to wish all Biiwii.com and NFTRH.com readers a happy and prosperous New Year.  There is only one way to manage when things are so asymmetrical or non-linear as they are in today’s macro markets and that is through focus and hard work.  Global policy makers have mucked up the works so thoroughly that it is ever more focused and hard work that will see us through.  My New Years’ resolution is to continue to improve in my methods and discipline, and beat them at their own game.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2014 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in