Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Slow January for Stocks, Commodities and Dollar?

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015 Jan 02, 2015 - 12:22 PM GMT

By: Gary_Savage

Stock-Markets

With the S&P losing support so early in a new daily cycle on Friday I’m afraid we’re probably set up for a choppy market in January.


I had my doubts as to whether the market could break through 2100 on the first try, and Friday’s move has probably confirmed that it is not going to. With the market starting down into a half cycle low, along with an upcoming earnings season, ECB decision on QE (Jan. 22), and Greek vote (Jan. 25) I expect the stage is probably set for the market to chop sideways underneath 2100 for most of January before a brief breakout late in the month.

As a matter of fact I suspect the entire first quarter is likely to be difficult as I expect the rally out of the early Feb. daily cycle low (diagrammed in the chart above) will probably form as a left translated cycle and then drop down into a sharp intermediate correction. Why? Because I expect Yellen will set a date for the first rate increase during the Feb. Humphrey Hawkins address. The market will rebel by falling hard into a deep intermediate degree correction. (Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling a final top, I still think there is little chance the market tops before the NASDAQ reaches 5100.)

If the move is deep enough it might even trigger QE4 and that could give us a final parabolic move to top off this QE driven bull market.

So if stocks are going to be stuck in a volatile trendless consolidation for a while then where can one make money you ask?

Day traders may do OK in the weeks and months ahead, but I think the most likely place for at least a tradeable trend may come in the commodity markets. They are way overdue for a counter trend bounce, especially oil. Just don’t get too greedy as it’s still too early for the CRB to form a final 3 year cycle low, so this will probably be short lived. But we could see commodities rally for a month or two before resuming their bear market trend into a final bottom maybe later this summer or next fall.

This would square up with the dollar moving down into an intermediate correction as it is also way overdue to take a breather.

The key is oil. Oil has to break free from OPEC forces trying to push it down. In order to do that it’s going to need some help from the dollar. So watch the dollar for a sharp break to the downside in the days ahead. A large volume spike on UUP on a down day would also be a clue that the intermediate tides may be ready to turn… at least for a month or two.

Gary Savage
The Smart Money Tracker

Gary Savage authors the Smart Money Tracker and daily financial newsletter tracking the stock & commodity markets with special emphasis on the precious metals market.

© 2015 Copyright Gary Savage - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in