FTSE100 - The Footsie Triple Step

By: Austin_Galt

I’m gonna vary it up here and go with some bottom up analysis beginning with the daily chart.

DAILY CHART

I have added a Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) with a downtrend line showing a bearish divergence emerging. With price now retreating, once done perhaps we could expect one last push to a marginal new high above the recent high of 6895 and for it to coincide with a third weaker RSI top. A nice triple bearish divergence. Then a significant move down could be expected.

MONTHLY CHART

Now skipping straight to the monthly chart. Just a couple of things I wanted to show here. Firstly, a Momentum Indicator with a downtrending line across tops demonstrates this bull market is exhausted. Time is nearly up. The highlighted green rectangle area is where I expect a top to form without taking out the all time high from 1999 at 6951.

From the daily chart it could be surmised that price goes down the rest of this month and then comes up for one last little marginal high, perhaps topping out in July.

Now let’s move on to the yearly chart of the UK stock market to get the big picture. And this is where things get interesting.

YEARLY CHART

It can be seen that a massive triple top looks to be just about formed. You could just about tippy toe across those tops. A triple step. But what does the chart tell us? Well, to my eye, it looks like a massive consolidation pattern which began with the first top back in 1999. Since then it has been one long slugfest lasting around 14 years so far and counting.

Now the general rule of thumb is that whichever way price comes into a consolidation pattern is the way price will leave the pattern. In this case, price went up into the pattern. Therefore, price should break out to the upside when this battle royale finally reaches its conclusion. But will this breakout be now? I seriously doubt it. The all time high in 1999 was 6951 and that is the level required to be taken out. Price isn’t far way though with last months high at 6895 being less than 1% from the all time high.

Now let me indulge myself with some personal speculation. Firstly, I think the 1999 top will hold now thereby putting a triple top in place. Therefore, the third top should fall somewhere inside the green highlighted rectangle area which is between the 1999 top and 2007 top. Price is there now.

Now assuming a triple top is set, price can then come back down to test the bottom of the consolidation pattern which is the 2003 low at 3277. Keep in mind that this structure appears to be a consolidation pattern in an uptrend and once finished a breakout to the upside can be expected. So this means that the move down should be held by the 2003 low. Now just as this current top has clipped the second or middle top, I also expect the triple bottom low to clip the second or middle low which was set in 2008 at 3460. So the triple bottom low should fall somewhere between 3277 and 3460. This area is denoted by the purple highlighted rectangle.

Now this is when I had an “ah ha” moment. Assuming the analysis is correct, a low in the purple rectangle area will mean price has dropped around 50% from the highs. Conveniently paying respects to one of Gann’s discoveries being that lows are often 50% of the high price. But the “ah ha” moment is applying the conclusions from this analysis of the Footsie to the US markets. For example, a 50% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Index would make for a low of around 8500. This clearly argues against the megabears predictions of total annihilation of US stock indexes. This is probably the most valuable piece of information to take away from this analysis.

So, taking a line from the West Coast hip hopster, Ice Cube, all those mega-permabears may wanna check themselves before they wreck themselves!

Bio
I have studied charts for over 20 years and currently am a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts, at least ones that had a reasonable idea of things. So my aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis.

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