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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stock Market Yo Yo....Boring...Nothing Good/Nothing Bad......

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Dec 06, 2012 - 03:47 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

That's the story, and I know it's a very boring one. You are all bored of me telling you this stuff every day. I totally get it. I'm bored of not being able to change things up. Shaking it up some would be nice but, sadly, that's not the way it is right now. The market simply whipsaws around giving no one any satisfaction. The more you trade the more you lose. We saw classic bifurcation today as the Nasdaq was very red thanks to Apple Inc. (AAPL) being down $38, but at the same time the S&P 500 was up a drop and the Dow was up decently. Healthy markets run to froth, not run away from it.



Right now the market is running away quite rapidly. No one wants anything related to higher risk. They want safety as much as humanly possible. The whipsaw is frustrating the masses. Fewer and fewer are getting involved with the markets. Who can blame them. Who really wants to be involved in a market that trades on the words of our political leaders? Fewer and fewer do. Nothing makes sense simply because the action is based mostly on rumors and hopes. It's not the best environment for people. Bottom line is we saw more whipsaw today while watching the grand leader of them lose its momentum in a way very few thought possible. AAPL is in big trouble here. More on that in a bit. Today was just another day of everything going nowhere.

AAPL is worth speaking about. The party appears mostly over there. Once at 703$ it is now at massive-gap support between its top at 540 and its bottom at 530. If AAPL were to lose 530 down to 525 it can easily see 460 in time. It's at an important inflection point, not only for itself, but for the stock market as a whole simply because of its heavy weighting on the averages it trades in.

If AAPL collapses the market will likely join in. There's no point trying to understand where it will catch and grasp why it just keeps falling apart. Accept that it is and move on. You have to see a bottoming stick. Right now it is trying to set up positive divergences on its daily chart. We'll see if that ever kicks in. Until you getting that bottoming stick reversal its best to not get in the way of this free falling vehicle. Don't be a hero. Be patient and see it. It should try it here due its proximity to support at this gap, but we'll wait and see. It had a full candle lower today on increasing volume. Not good. If AAPL does collapse you can kiss this market goodbye.

I listened to CNBC after hours. This isn't something I normally do as I find them boring and without much insight as to the truth of what moves the market. However, I knew they were going to talk about the impending fiscal cliff and, thus, I wanted to listen in. I was shocked and then not shocked when I heard the two opposing sides still playing hard ball with each other. Sometimes I really believe these people are evil. The power they have totally corrupting them and removing them from reality. The reality that 99% of the people they represent live with. They are just so removed. It's sad for them in a way, but far more sad for those who they represent. They, we, are all paying the price.

It seems they're not about to change their ways and will likely play hard ball right until the last moment. Who knows, maybe these people really won't put together a package that satisfies everyone and avoids the cliff. Maybe they don't care deep down and will allow us to go in to a deep and prolonged recession. Maybe they are just blind to anything regarding truth. I hope we don't have to find this to be the way things ultimately are but, sadly, we just may. What has happened to good old common sense and decency? Maybe it's gone for good. Intelligence and caring seem to be something from the past. Maybe there really isn't too much hope after all. I pray not, but it's possible the reality of things will be exactly what we fear the most.

Watch S&P 500 1402. If that goes away say hello to 1378. If that goes away, say so long to the stock market. We need good news on the Jobs Report on Friday morning. Probably won't be higher, but you never know. We can hope. We can also hope that more representatives start behaving nicely in the days ahead and offer us some real hope regarding the cliff. I'm not holding my breath in anticipation.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2012 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


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