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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Fed Bernanke...Boehner...Obama.... Stock Market Reversal Up....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Nov 29, 2012 - 02:48 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

, and talk up how they would find a solution to the fiscal cliff. That both sides would make concessions and that a good solution was in the cards. The market rallied hard. The market topped and started falling again with the Dow down over 100 points today. Out of the blue, and my guess from Mr. Bernanke, who always watches the market, Boehner came out again today and said he and Obama were working closely together, and that a solution would be found between the two sides. Again, in days of market distress they come out.



When the market is up you hear nothing. When the market is rocking down, out they come in force. Add in Mr. Bernanke today saying QE4 is on the docket, you can't make it up, and up the market went. Two hundred points off the lows on the Dow. The whipsaw based on news continuing with no real way to play the market safely as we are prisoners to the words of our leaders. Not the most fun way to go about trading the market. Another day of interference. Another day of a reversal out of the blue. Another tough day to trade. It seems the masses always are on the wrong side of these types of days.

I have talked recently about believing there is no bear market on the horizon. The reason for that is really quite simple. Our leaders from both sides of the coin are feeling the heat from the general public with regards to how they govern. Folks are tired of the egos and the decisions that come from these egos. Most of the time it's good for the minority of folks and bad for the majority. They know how much they're pretty much disliked, and I'm being kind by saying disliked.

Thus, they are going to come up with a solution in my opinion, a solution that may be forced on them, but a solution nonetheless. It's time they thought of the people who voted for them, even though they hate to do that, and so, in the end, it'll get done. They may force us to wait until the last moment, but they'll do it. The pressure is just too intense not to get it done. They'll be vilified if they fail here, so expect a happy ending. But, of course, it won't be easy. After all, there are no bigger egos anywhere else on this planet.

The market has been flirting with losing those three and a half up-trend lines for a few weeks now, the number on the Dow being 12,700. If that level gets taken out, and the rest of the indexes follow along, it's lights out for this market for a while. You never want to lose long-term up-trend lines. That's the real force of support for the bulls. As we stand now, the market is trading between gaps, which is typical for a market that's thrown around daily, based on news from our leaders. It looks like it wants to break lower, but then the boys come out arm and arm and all is saved, not to mention constant interference from the Fed.

Then we rally and get to the gaps above and we start stalling. A push lower comes. Wash, rinse and repeat. There's a gap on the Spy at 141.70. We closed at 141.46 today. It's clear we need to burst through 141.70 to get us moving to the very top of gap at 142.75. It's a day-by-day process with both sides holding their areas for now but we all know that'll change in time. Right now things look decent but again, only because of interference. It is what it is and we can't argue with what is. It's day-to-day, for sure.

Hopefully, we can get involved soon in this ridiculous whipsaw environment.

Please be patient.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


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