Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Has the Fed Let the Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle? - 10th Aug 20
The Strange Food Trend That’s Making Investors Rich - 10th Aug 20
Supply & Demand For Money – The End of Inflation? - 10th Aug 20
Revisiting Our Silver and Gold Predictions – Get Ready For Higher Prices - 10th Aug 20
Storm Clouds Are Gathering for a Major Stock and Commodity Markets Downturn - 10th Aug 20
A 90-Year-Old Stock Market Investment Insight That's Relevant in 2020 - 10th Aug 20
Debt and Dollar Collapse Leading to Potential Stock Market Melt-Up, - 10th Aug 20
Coronavirus: UK Parents Demand ALL Schools OPEN September, 7 Million Children Abandoned by Teachers - 9th Aug 20
Computer GPU Fans Not Spinning Quick FIX - Sticky Fans Solution - 9th Aug 20
Find the Best Speech Converter for You - 9th Aug 20
Silver Bull Market Update - 7th Aug 20
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story - 7th Aug 20
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun - 7th Aug 20
Know About Lotteries With The Best Odds Of Winning - 7th Aug 20
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Forecasts For the Coming Week

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Nov 24, 2012 - 11:08 AM GMT

By: Manas_Banerji


If markets have to face big sell-offs from big institutes then will not they come before? A good example of that is the end of the 2007 and beginning 2008 though then there were no big election like recent days. So if I consider that due to that vital US election market did not crash then this may not be a good time for that. If it has to come then that will come in market tops or at least in intermediate top levels. So, that means are we going to see more up moves in coming days!

I do feel that all the matters have started with US housing and related mortgage problem and since recently good news are coming from those fronts then that may clear some cloud. But I will be waiting for more of such reports; definitely short-term fluctuation does not reveal much of a thing. Up to now Oil (Nymex) was threatening to break 80 but in recent weeks it was again trying to break $90 levels so that may not be good for those nations which depend on import of oil. On the other hand Gold (Comex) is also testing $1750 if again investment starts to shift toward gold then riskier markets will not be in a stable ground, especially in this circumstances.

Euro’s moves in last few days were good and it looks like that it may test 1.31 levels again so that in turn may become good for stock market. On the other hand 10-year US treasury yield which was threatening to break around 1.60 levels is now showing better moves but still around 1.85 levels is far from it. So if stock indexes get clearance from those sides then another short-term run like QE-3 may come but breaking those ranges which stock indexes are following in recent months will be hard a hard job. I think we may compare those recent levels with 1.31 range of Euro and 1.85 level for 10-year US treasury yields.

As I was saying in my earlier postings that many experts are predicting about an imminent market crash and frankly speaking some of the stock indexes are showing that situation but those are on the basis of very long-tern perspective. Where as for coming week many stock indexes may test higher levels. Few times ago macros were looking worse and most of us was thinking about crash but that did not happen where as now for coming days or for short-term there is expectation of positive things, especially when good news is coming from US fiscal cliff but now I will be taking precaution in my approach. Let talk about different stock indexes.

Dow Jones I.A. has finally reacted on its bearish pattern but still has multiple options in the downside so it will be not clear to say that Dow will starts a new bullish phase from here.

Dow was in short-term over-sold zone so a reversal was due, here I will be emphasizing on around 12750 levels. if Dow able to maintain that in early days of the coming week then it may test higher levels but breaking its previous high of around 13320 will be a hard job for it. In fact around 13000 levels which it was trying to cross in the last day of this week will be its initial resistance. Last time I was talking about a probable short-term bullish pattern, which is still there.
Since Dow is making lower highs and lower lows trend so if it unable to stay above 12750 levels then there is a chance that it may again test its recent low of around 12400. As I have already said that still Dow has options in the downside so 12400 will be an important support level for it if Dow maintains that then it may try to bounce in the upside in later days of the coming week.

In my last review I was expecting that German DAX may test 7000 levels and I was also expecting this probable bounce.

Last couples of days were good for Dax but so long it maintains around 7150 levels it has the option of testing higher levels. There is chance of making a positive pattern if Dax able to test around 7400 ranges.
But here things will be different if Dax also follows the trend like other stock indexes which is making lower highs and lower lows. In that case we may not see more up movements but all this probabilities will become negative if Dax break 7400 level.
If Dax fails to stay above 7150 levels then it may drop to test 7000 levels again. Here I must say that like other leading stock indexes Dax has not much option in the downside so it makes Dax better that others. In the downside I will be concentrating on 7000 levels.

Though FTSE 100 dropped below 5700 range but it failed to complete its bearish pattern. Ftse broke crucial 5800 level and now it will not be an easy job to expect Ftse to complete its probable bullish pattern which I was talking in my last review, though that option is still open for it but for that Ftse has to test around 5900 ranges.

Now an important job for it is to stay above around 5740 levels and I will start thinking positively about it if Ftse able to break 5900 levels. When in past weeks many other stock indexes were showing lower highs and lower lows Ftse were different but now it is also trying to follow them. So if that is true then it will not break around 5900 levels in coming week. Ftse has options in the downside but those are not very clear, in fact those are complex one. So if it drops from here and break 5600 then around 5500 may act as good support for it.

South Korean KOSPI is still due for its bearish pattern though it goes upside from around 1860 level but still it may drop.
I think below 1840 is the level where it may get support. Since Kospi is following lower highs and lower lows trend so unless it is crossing its near high of 1940, I think it has the option in the downside.

Kopsi’s move in last few days were good and if it maintains around 1900 range in early days of the coming week then it may try to test higher levels but still I have doubts about substantial moves. In my last review I was talking about multiple bullish options and that is still open but for that it has to break at least around 1940 level in the upside.
On the other hand if it fails to stay above 1900 levels in early days then it has the chance of testing below around 1850 levels. In case if it does not drop below 1850 levels then in later days of the coming week it may bounce in the upside.

In my last review I was suspecting that S&P/ASX 200 has a chance to break 4450 levels, it is good to see that it finds the support at around 4350 range.

At past I was talking that S&P/ASX has a chance of making bearish pattern if it tests below 4300 levels but as it looks like that it has many other options in the downside. S&P/ASX is making lower tops and lower highs and unless it is breaking 4525 in the upside it has less chance to come out from this trend.
In spite of being in over-sold position S&P/ASX was unable to reverse substantially so the first task for it is to maintain around 4400 levels in early days of the coming week, especially crossing 4450 level is vital for it.
On the other hand it may get the resistance here at around 4400 levels and again tests lower levels but there is a good chance that it may not drop below around 4340 levels. Therefore in later days of the coming week it may bounce in the upside. In case if it drops below 4300 then I will think about the medium term bearish pattern, its recent trend also supports that move.

Reports due in coming days (from US)

Monday, 26th November, 2012 – Chic Fed Nat. Bus, Dallas Fed Index.

Tuesday, 27th November, 2012 – Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Index.

Wednesday, 28th November, 2012 – New Home Sales, Fed's Beige Book.

Thursday, 29th November, 2012 – Unemployment claims, Pending Home sales, 3rd Q GDP rev.

Friday, 30th November, 2012 – Consumer Income & Spend, Chicago PMI.


Tuesday, 27th November, 2012 – South African GDP, South Korean current account, German CPI.

Wednesday, 28th November, 2012 – German unemployment rate

About me : I am an active stock trader, I trade on Indian market. I am not a writer but in weekends, I love to spend sometime with it. Though it is an Equity market blog but it also covers Bond & Treasury market as well as currency market.

NOTE :  Disclaimer of my blog is also applicable to the above writing.

© 2012 Copyright Manas Banerji - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules