Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back - 5th Dec 19
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak - 5th Dec 19
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 - 5th Dec 19
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One - 5th Dec 19
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you - 5th Dec 19
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time - 5th Dec 19
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average - 4th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? - 4th Dec 19
What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019 - 4th Dec 19
Gold, Silver and Stock Market Big Picture: Seat Belts Tightened - 4th Dec 19
Online Presence: What You Need to Know About What Others Know About You - 4th Dec 19
New Company Tip: How To Turn Prospects into Customers with CRM Tech - 4th Dec 19
About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? - 3rd Dec 19
How Far Will Gold Reach Before the Upcoming Reversal? - 3rd Dec 19
Is The Current Stock Market Rally A True Valuation Rally or Euphoria? - 3rd Dec 19
Why Shale Oil Not Viable at $45WTI Anymore, OPEC Can Dictate Price Again - 3rd Dec 19
Lib Dem Election Dodgy Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam Battle General Election 2019 - 3rd Dec 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Uneven Wear Dash Warning Message at 2mm Mark - 3rd Dec 19
The Rise and Evolution of Bitcoin - 3rd Dec 19
Virtual games and sport, which has one related to the other - 3rd Dec 19
The Narrative About Gold is Changing Again - 2nd Dec 19
Stock Market Liquidity & Volume Diminish – What Next? - 2nd Dec 19
A Complete Guide To Finding The Best CFD Broker - 2nd Dec 19
See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - 2nd Dec 19
Will Lib Dems Win Sheffield Hallam From Labour? General Election 2019 - 2nd Dec 19
Stock Market Where Are We?  - 1st Dec 19
Will Labour's Insane Manifesto Spending Plans Bankrupt Britain? - 1st Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election - 30th Nov 19
Growing Inequality Unrest Threatens Mining Industry - 30th Nov 19
Conspiracy Theories Are Killing This Nation - 30th Nov 19
How to Clip a Budgies / Parakeets Wings, Cut / Trim Bird's Flight Feathers - 30th Nov 19
Hidden Failure of SIFI Banks - 29th Nov 19
Use the “Ferrari Pattern” to Predictably Make 431% with IPOs - 29th Nov 19
Tax-Loss Selling Drives Down Gold and Silver Junior Stock Prices - 29th Nov 19
We Are on the Brink of the Second Great Depression - 29th Nov 19
How to Spot REAL Amazon Black Friday Bargains and Avoid FAKE Sales - 29th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK House prices predicting general election result

The Stock Market Just Realized Two BIG Problems

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Nov 12, 2012 - 01:56 PM GMT

By: Graham_Summers

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US Presidential election ended November 6, 2012. Since that time, the market has fallen 3%.

There are a multitude of reasons for this, but the primary one is the fact that the markets is beginning to realize two key items:


1)   Everything that was a problem in the run up to the US election is still a problem (in fact many issues are now worse than they were a few months ago).

2)   Having engaged in pre-emptive and extreme actions to keep things calm in the run up to the election, the US Fed and ECB have run out of effective monetary bullets.

Regarding #1, according to the ECRI, as of June 2012, the US is back in recession. The ECRI has proven far more accurate and timely in predicting recessions than the NBER. And now that the election is over I expect other US data (the ISM, LEI, and employment numbers) to start moving towards reality (bad).

By the way, the US just hit a new record for food stamp usage.

Across the pond, the European banking and sovereign debt crisis continues to worsen: Greece has to redeem €5 billion worth of bonds on Friday. The country just managed to pass its latest budget proposal (which undoubtedly the country will fail to meet… just like all the others) but the troika has yet to issue its latest report on Greece.

Germany has stated point blank that without the troika report, Greece won’t be getting more funds. Is Germany finally ready to let Greece fail? It’s hard to say. But Germany did put together a special advisory panel to focus exclusively on assessing the cost of a Grexit back in August.

Elsewhere in the EU, Spain continues to implode. The mainstream financial media notes that people are now killing themselves when evicted from their homes. However, things are in fact worse than that. My contacts in the country inform me that in some regions the government hasn’t even paid its pharmacies in six months. Indeed, the region of Valencia owes its pharmacies an insane €500 million.

This is nothing short of a societal shut down. Expect the civil unrest and economic implosion to accelerate in the coming weeks and months.

And finally, France’s private sector is falling to pieces. September’s auto sales numbers were worse than those of September 2008. The country’s PMI reading is back to April 2009 levels. And the French Central Bank has announced the country will re-enter recession before year-end.

Again, nothing has been fixed in the last six months. In fact, things have gotten much much worse.

As for #2, it is now clear that the ECB and US Fed used up their last remaining effective bullets this summer in their efforts to aid the Obama re-election campaign (Romney stated he would fire Bernanke, hence the Fed’s decision… while various EU officials admitted the Obama administration requested that they keep things calm in the build up to November).

Indeed, stocks are now sharply down since QE 3. Gold and Silver, in contrast are up. If this dynamic does not change immediately then the positive consequence of the Fed’s actions (namely stocks rising) is now obsolete while the negative consequence (higher inflation) is about to hit lift off.

What would the market look like without the Fed’s aid? According to the business cycle the S&P 500 would be closer to 1,000.

In the EU, the ECB announced a plan to make unlimited bond purchases for EU nations that meet various reforms and “conditions.” The problem with this is that none of the countries that need money (namely Spain and Italy) want to meet any conditions as their economies are already imploding without additional austerity measures (see the information on Spain above).

Thus, the ECB promise has in fact turned out to be a colossal bluff. At the end of the day, Mario Draghi can say whatever he wants, but unless Germany is willing to go along with the ECB, he can’t do much of anything. Germany demands “conditions” therefore so does the ECB.

So… the global economy continues to slow. Europe is burning (literally in some countries). And the primary Central Banks (the Fed and the ECB) are out of ammo.

Buckle up… things are about to get messy.

To learn more about Private Wealth Advisory and how it can help you navigate the markets successfully…

Click Here Now!!!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Good Investing!

http://gainspainscapital.com

PS. If you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.

I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.

Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

© 2012 Copyright Graham Summers - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Graham Summers Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules