Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

No Stock Market Breakout Here.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Oct 06, 2012 - 02:16 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The market has made a nice move off the bottom this past week, but when it ran into the highs that had thrown a gap lower and a black candle preceding that, it failed. It could not get through that gap. It could not get above that recent black candle at the top, and thus, be ready for more chop to drive you all crazy. And why not? This is how you get folks to feel like they no longer want to be part of the game. Mission accomplished by the big money. Take it down. Tease everyone on the way up. Pull the carpet out once again. Get folks frustrated. And on and on the game goes.



Keep in mind, we sold when sentiment got to roughly 30% more bulls along with 70 RSI's on the daily index charts. Well, we got to 70 RSI's on those daily charts again on this move up, and 70 RSI on the index charts when you're running into resistance, isn't the best formula for upside. Bottom line for the week was it was a test back up to the highs from last week, and that's where it failed. For now, we have a double top in place with a handle likely to form again.

Remember, that means some downside action is likely. Not guaranteed, but likely. It doesn't mean you should get bearish. It also doesn't mean you should be shorting, but, of course, do what feels right to you. I would say the best way to approach this type of market would be to wait for things to set up on some lateral action. Let oscillators unwind. Let things get back to good support areas and then play all over again. For the moment, the market is simply in neutral territory.

A lot of bearish looking sectors, such as the transports and materials, took nice turns higher this week, which protected important breakdowns. That's normal action in an ongoing, bullish environment. It doesn't mean they're out of the woods. But based on the oscillators on the index charts they represent, it seems like the worst should be behind them, even if we sell some here. Sure, they'll give back some of the gains, but they should easily protect their recent lows. Time will tell, but they're set up to do just that. A lot of other sectors, such as the financials, in particular, hit very overbought today on its highs, and now they should need some form of a pullback to unwind overbought conditions. The point of this being it shows how the market will work its way into a lateral environment by cycling around different sectors on a continuous basis.

It's the way the big money keeps the market from breaking down. If the market were to eventually break lower with force it would be done by no longer supporting the oversold sectors at support. Big money would allow them to stay oversold, and thus, to break down. For now, you have to give the benefit of the doubt to what's been taking place. Clearly that is to cycle around, and play that which is oversold and turning up on the oscillators. The bears have to show they're capable of creating different behavior. Until then, stick with the trend in place.

The jobs report came out today showing job creation in line with expectations. 114K jobs created. Not bad, but nothing great. However, the market was initially excited by this as it showed the economy was still hanging in there. The market gapped up on this news. Watching the jobs situation, along with the manufacturing reports, is key to the future of this stock market. We're talking bigger picture here. If it becomes apparent that all the QE's in the world is not going to make a difference, eventually the market will give it up.

The reports that come out from these two areas is going to decide the market's fate over time. If they can continue to improve a bit, the market will celebrate it. If they show further deterioration over time, there really is no hope down the road. The market would eventually give it up. It's still playing on hope. Nothing wrong with that, but you must be prepared should the time come that the market feels there's nothing but clouds ahead that aren't going to clear up any time soon. We have some months, it seems, to see how it unfolds but it must be watched closely.

As the market chops all over the place, keep in mind that S&P 500 has massive long-term support at roughly 1419. It can test back to that 50-day exponential moving average in time, and even breach a bit. But keep in mind that as long as we don't lose it with force, testing it is not bearish. Selling isn't always bearish folks. The chop we should experience here isn't bad news, so try to keep that in mind. Don't lose sight of what's taking place. Just keep that 50-day exponential moving average on your computer screen and remember that all selling above this level is just noise in what is still a more bullish environment.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2012 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in