Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Triggering a Stocks Bear Market? - 27th Feb 20
Trump or Sanders? Both will pile up the Debt - 27th Feb 20
Oil Price Is Now More Volatile Than Bitcoin - 27th Feb 20
A Digital “Fedcoin” May Be Coming… And It Would Be Terrifying - 27th Feb 20
India's Nifty 50 Stocks: Does the Bad Jobs Outlook Spell Trouble for Stocks? - 27th Feb 20
How Crypto Currencies Are Helping Players Go Private - 27th Feb 20 -
Gold and Silver The Die Is Cast - 27th Feb 20
US Economy Permanently Addicted to Zero Interest Rates - 27th Feb 20
Has the Stock Market Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity? - 27th Feb 20
Advantages of Enrolling in a Retirement Plan - 27th Feb 20 - LS
South Korea Coronavirus Outbreak Data Analysis Warning Rate of Infection is Exponential! - 26th Feb 20
Gold Price Long-term Trend Analysis Forecast 2020 - 26th Feb 20
Fake Markets Are on Collision Course with Reality - 26th Feb 20
Microsoft is Crushing the S&P 500, Secret Trait Of Stocks That Soar 1,000%+ - 26th Feb 20
Europe's Best Ski Resorts For The Ultimate Adventure - 26th Feb 20
Samsung Galaxy S20+ vs Galaxy S10+ Which One to Buy? - 26th Feb 20
Gold Is Taking on $1,700 amid Rising Coronavirus Fears - 26th Feb 20
Is This What Falling Through the Floor Looks Like in Stocks? - 26th Feb 20
Gold Minsky Moment Coming - 26th Feb 20
Why Every Student Should Study Economics - 26th Feb 20
Stock Market Correction Over? - 26th Feb 20
US Bond Market Yield Curve Patterns – What To Expect In 2020 - 25th Feb 20
Has Stock Market Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity? - 25th Feb 20
Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 infected Patients, UK - 25th Feb 20
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Trigger a Stocks Bear Market? - 24th Feb 20
Sustained Silver Rally Coming? - 24th Feb 20
Should Investors Worry about Repo Market and Buy Gold? - 24th Feb 20
Are FANG Technology Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 24th Feb 20
Gold Above $1,600 Amid FOMC Minutes and Coronavirus Impact - 24th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920 - 23rd Feb 20 -
Ways to Find Startup Capital - 23rd Feb 20
Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - 22nd Feb 20
The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective - 22nd Feb 20
Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon - 22nd Feb 20
Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity - 22nd Feb 20
Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 22nd Feb 20
Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected - 21st Feb 20
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? - 20th Feb 20
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? - 20th Feb 20
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield - 20th Feb 20
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From Overclockers.co.uk - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Europe Rules Stock Market Trend......20's Sold On Back-Test.......

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 May 31, 2012 - 02:27 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The United States stock market no longer trades on its own. Those days are behind us. Whatever takes place overnight in Europe is what we see when we wake-up, regarding our stock market futures. If Europe is down big, then we're down big. If Europe is down a drop, then we're down a drop. The same holds true on the upside of this equation. Europe is facing some terrible news on an almost daily basis, and this is causing their markets to spend a lot of time heading south. A few days to the northern side of the ledger, but mostly it goes south.


Last night you would have thought our stock market saw something positive coming out of Europe as it staged a nice gap up that ended up holding very well yesterday. It gapped up and ran, pulled back, but then ran again late in the day. That tells me the market wanted to go higher today, but Europe was clearly not on the radar, even though we closed well yesterday.

It had a nice, strong gap down today. The action was never positive in terms of a huge comeback. A poor day for the bulls, while the bears have to feel great about today's losses. They defended the 20-day exponential moving averages on all the major daily index charts. The transports acted best by reaching the 50-day exponential moving averages, but they fell hard today. No mercy as leaders, such as United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), FedEx Corporation (FDX), Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), Kansas City Southern (KSU), and others in that sector just gave it up without a thought. With the transports able to back-test the 50's, you would have thought the rest of the market would do the same, but the rest of the market wanted nothing to do with not only touching the 50's, but the 20's as well. Super-weak action in a super-weak environment.

The carnage today was across the board. No matter what sector you look at, the selling was nasty. The financial and commodity stocks hit very hard, as the scenario of a deflationary world takes a stronger hold on the trading public. The realization of two failed QE programs is taking hold. A third QE program is now thought of as a failure in waiting. We all know it won't work for the bigger picture problems plaguing our world economies. There is no cure, sadly, other than what nobody seems to want to deal with, but that's for another time. Even though it's likely someday, we'll see another QE program, but the market no longer seems excited by those prospects. It knows it won't help, so really, why bother creating hyper-inflation. That alone will kill the masses more than a QE program will help. That in mind, no one escaped today, although there were some winning stocks. Apple Inc. (AAPL) comes to mind, but there weren't very many happy stories on Wall Street today.

Sentiment can be, but usually is not, a buy or sell signal. The signals, when they appear, are rare indeed. Most of the time sentiment is a non-issue. Going in to this week, we saw the bull-bear spread at 11.7%. A great run in pessimism over the past four to six weeks. Just what the market needed. However, this past week, we saw the bull-bear spread move to plus 14.8% more bulls. I thought the numbers would move to single digits. It was a real shock to me to see the market, with its poor behavior, see more bulls creeping back in. It may need a large dose of fear again to get what we need for a buy signal on the sentiment issue. That may mean 1500 points down, or thereabouts, on the Dow. That doesn't have to happen. I'm just saying that it would take that type of loss in points to get the bull-bear spread to have more bears. Time will tell the tale, but for now, the numbers are still neutral.

Massive long-term support comes in on the S&P 500 at 1314, which is the 200-day exponential moving average down to key horizontal support at 1292. A forceful move below 1314 takes the S&P 500 down quickly to 1292. If we lose 1292, we are likely to see 1250 very rapidly. 1338 is key resistance, for now, but let's not think about that for the moment. The bulls are on the ropes and need to act quickly, but there are two reports coming out Friday morning that are huge market movers, the Jobs Report and the ISM Manufacturing Report. If both are bad, look out below. Maybe the bulls can get a real surprise.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2012 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules