Sheffield Darnall Local Election 2010 Result, Labour Tribe Turns Out to Crush Liberal Democrat Hopes

By: N_Walayat

Going into the Sheffield City local election, the battle for Darnall and other Sheffield wards was expected to be extremely tight between Labour and the Liberal Democrats as a consequence of the Lib-Dems national 10% surge in the polls from 20% to 30% putting Labour into third place in many opinion polls which risked as many as a 1/3rd of Labour council seats being lost.

However, as witnessed in the general election, the Lib Dem poll surge evaporated into thin air on election night as Mazher Iqbal won a decisive victory for Labour by holding the Darnall seat with a far increased majority, leaving the Liberal Democrats in a distant second as follows -

Name: IQBAL Mazher
Party: The Labour Party Candidate
Votes: 4,179

Name: CHOWDHURY Misbah Uz
Party: Liberal Democrats
Votes: 2,390

Name: ARNOTT Charlotte Elizabeth
Party: UK Independence Party (UK IP)
Votes: 880

Name: PIGOTT Margaret Elizabeth
Party: The Conservative Party Candidate
Votes: 676

Name: WHITE Julie Anne
Party: Green Party
Votes: 258

Electorate: 14580
Turnout: 57%

The general election on the same night as the local election and fears of Lib Dem victories in traditional Labour seats frightened the usual stay at home Labour tribe to turnout in force to vote in this local election. the turnout jumped form 34% to 57%.

Labours share of the vote increased from 44% in 2008 to 50%.

The Lib Dem share of the vote FELL from 32% in 2008 to 28%.

My election analysis (04 May 2010 - Darnall Local Election 2010 Labour, Lib-Dem Battle Analysis and Forecast () based on the national swing, projected towards a much tighter race, though concluded in a Labour Hold outcome.

As mentioned at the time increased volatility in the actual outcome was expected as a consequence of the much higher turnout for this local election, far higher than anything seen during the past 20 years.

General elections tend to boost the turnout for the local election held on the same day i.e. 2008 turnout was 4604 or 34%, whilst the turnout at the last general election for Attercliffe was 54%, which suggests that this year could see 60% more votes cast in the local election i.e. 7,350, which greatly confuses the outcome as the last local election to coincide with a general election was before Labour came to power in 1997 and therefore it is not possible to arrive at a number of votes projection for this local election.

The actual turnout came in at 8,383, 57% of the electorate against a forecast turnout of 7,350.

Therefore the conclusion to draw from this local election for Darnall is that high turnouts favour Labour, low turnouts favour the Liberal Democrats.

Darnall Health Issue

A contributory factor to Labours strong performance in Darnall was the local healthcare issue where Darnall GP services rank as the worst in Sheffield according to the Department of Health Funded UK GP Patient Survey (02 May 2010 - Sheffield Darnall Local Election 2010 Health Issues Debate )

Sheffield City Council

Labours strong performance echoed right across the city with Labour not only holding onto existing seats but winning 3 back from the Liberal Democrats and Greens which leaves the Council in no overall control -

Liberal Democrats 42 seats (44),
Labour 39 (36),
Greens 2 (3),
Independent 1 (1).

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19304.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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