Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, November 04, 2011
Disorderly Greece Debt Default and Exit from Eurozone? / Politics / Euro-Zone
1. The possibility of a disorderly Greek default is now rising;
2. It is worth watching the Greek military which was on the verge of causing a coup earlier in the week;
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Friday, November 04, 2011
Japan Fukushima Nuclear Cover-Up Exposed by New International Report / Politics / Nuclear Power
Japan's six reactor Fukushima Daichi nuclear complex has inadvertently become the world's bell-weather poster child for the inherent risks of nuclear power ever since the 11 March Tohoku offshore earthquake, measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale, triggered a devastating tsunami that effectively destroyed the complex.
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Friday, November 04, 2011
Next Stage of the European Debt Crisis; Towards Global Financial Collapse? / Politics / Global Debt Crisis
Those who believe the European crisis is over are mistaken. The dislocation will continue as their economies slow and political, social and economic events converge into further crisis. The most glaring problem is the banks only taking a 50% loss on Greek bonds. The loss should have been 75% or even 80%. There is absolutely no way Greece can overcome that burden in a slowing European economy and an enraged population. They are still striking and demonstrating and they will continue even under a new government.
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Thursday, November 03, 2011
Greek Democracy Could Be Costly / Politics / Euro-Zone
When the news broke earlier this week that Greek prime minister George Papandreou would seek a popular referendum on the bailout deal that had been so torturously negotiated over the previous months, financial panic quickly emerged. A "no" vote by the Greek people would likely lead to a partial dissolution of the Eurozone and could be the beginning of the end of the euro currency itself.
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Thursday, November 03, 2011
Spain's Infrastructure Spending: A Flight to Nowhere / Politics / Government Spending
Andrew Schiff writes: Recently there's been much talk about how infrastructure spending can be a viable solution to our country's current economic woes. President Obama's proposed $447 billion dollar jobs bill contains, among other things, investment in infrastructure projects like road construction. Many progressive economists have called for much more, with some even saying that the utility of such programs is secondary to the short term economic stimulation that would result from hiring unemployed workers. In other words, it doesn't matter what is built, as long as the government creates jobs. But even if the projects are widely regarded as needed, will the benefits justify the costs? Oftentimes the answer is no, as the actions of the Spanish government over the last two decades suggest.
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Thursday, November 03, 2011
Everybody Hates Capitalism, The General Theory of Zombieism / Politics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
We begin another look at Zombieland with this editorial from Martin Wolf in The Financial Times:
Read full article... Read full article...Why did it take so long? It is over four years since the financial crisis began. Yet only now are anti-capitalist protests emerging, including at St Paul’s Cathedral. So is this the beginning of a resurgent leftwing politics? I doubt it. Are the protesters raising some big questions? Yes, they are.
Thursday, November 03, 2011
Fait Accompli by George Papendrou Regarding the Greek Referendum / Politics / Euro-Zone
Can you just visualize the look on the face of Nicolas Sarkozy when George Papendrou explains his actions as a fait accompli. The Greek Prime Minister can not back down now that he has made an announcement to hold a referendum, as it would look as though he was weak and capitulated under the pressure from his European masters.
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Thursday, November 03, 2011
Eurocrats in Action, Ripping Off Taxpayers and Running Into Walls to Avoid the Cameras / Politics / Euro-Zone
The following must see video shows Eurocrats in action, ripping off taxpayers and inadvertently running into walls to escape the lights of the camera. The video is in German but has English subtitles. A second video follows with French Subtitles.
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Wednesday, November 02, 2011
U.S. Millennial Generation Battles Against Wall Street Modeled on Egypt and Tunisia Protests / Politics / US Politics
BAD MOON RISING
I see the bad moon arising.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightnin'.
I see bad times today.
Creedence Clearwater Revival – Bad Moon Rising
“Human history seems logical in afterthought but a mystery in forethought.” - The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
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Wednesday, November 02, 2011
Eurocrats Terrified of Democracy; In Praise of Papandreou's Greece Referendum Decision / Politics / Euro-Zone
I do not know what motivated Greek Prime minister George Papandreou to call for a voter referendum on the Greek bailouts (and no one else does either) with the exception of Papandreou himself.
However, there are some rather interesting possibilities (as well as a simple explanation).
The Slog outlines a scenario that Papandreou’s bailout referendum bombshell was inspired by Merkel in order to trigger major losses in French banks, causing France to lose its AAA rating, culminating in a total Merkel victory and German revenge over France.
Wednesday, November 02, 2011
China Leverages Electrolytic Manganese Metal Stockpile Monopoly / Politics / Metals & Mining
metal over 30 years ago, but so far, the country has not been able to produce any electrolytic manganese (EMM), a critical alloying element. And like rare earths, the US has been sourcing its electrolytic manganese largely from China and small amounts from South Africa. In 2009, China’s production accounted for 95% of the global electrolytic manganese production.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2011
Auf Wiedersehen, Au Revoir, Greece! / Politics / Global Debt Crisis
Greek Prime Minister Papandreou is throwing in the towel: by calling for a popular vote on austerity measures now, we believe he is almost assured a no vote. This allows Papandreou to say that he tried everything he could to avoid a default, but the people have spoken. Having said that, as we write this analysis, Papandreou appears to be changing his mind and may cancel the idea of a referendum as quickly as it came about. Still, the message is clear: a default is coming.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2011
Global Financial Crash Imminent, MF Global Is The First Of Many! / Politics / Financial Crash
John Rolls Submits: To all Patriots:
Tuesday, November 01, 2011
Russia Rebuilding an Empire While It Can / Politics / Russia
Lauren Goodrich writes: U.S.-Russian relations seem to have been relatively quiet recently, as there are numerous contradictory views in Washington about the true nature of Russia’s current foreign policy. Doubts remain about the sincerity of the U.S. State Department’s so-called “reset” of relations with Russia — the term used in 2009 when U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton handed a reset button to her Russian counterpart as a symbol of a freeze on escalating tensions between Moscow and Washington. The concern is whether the “reset” is truly a shift in relations between the two former adversaries or simply a respite before relations deteriorate again.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2011
What the World Will Look Like if Occupy Wall Street Wins / Politics / Financial Markets 2011
Keith Fitz-Gerald, Chief Investment Strategist writes: There are many reasons why the Occupy Wall Street movement could fail - a lack of cohesion, too many directions, no leadership, not enough money, and no representation, to name a few.
But what if it "succeeds?"
What would our investing landscape look like and what would we do about it?
Tuesday, November 01, 2011
Perspectives on the Crisis in Europe / Politics / Euro-Zone
This week's Outside the Box will be unusual. Rather than one essay, I give you a number of short ones, and links that are representative of the confusion that is Europe, along with a little history. As I noted this weekend, last week's Eurozone announcement was short of details, and very little of the real work had been done. Merkel has to get her own country on board, keep the other nations that are in trouble from demanding haircuts, and keep the markets from trashing Italian and Spanish debt. Berlusconi has to figure out how to get the Italian budget balanced while staying out of jail and "balancing" his social calendar. Maybe he can dollar-cost average with a 70-year-old date? (Sorry, that was snarky, but it is so easy.)
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Monday, October 31, 2011
U.S. Leaving Iraq? / Politics / US Politics
It is not too often I am pleased by the foreign policy announcements from this administration, but last week's announcement that the war in Iraq was in its final stage and all the troops may be home for Christmas did sound promising. I have long said that we should simply declare victory and come home. It should not have taken us nearly a decade to do so, and it was supposed to be a priority for the new administration. Instead, it will be one of the last things done before the critical re-election campaign gets into full swing. Better late than never, but, examining the fine print, is there really much here to get excited about? Are all of our men and women really coming home, and is Iraq now to regain its sovereignty? And in this time of economic crisis, are we going to stop hemorrhaging money in Iraq? Sadly, it doesn't look that way.
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Monday, October 31, 2011
U.S. Natural Gas Find off Vietnam Could Raise Tensions with China / Politics / Natural Gas
First, the good news...
U.S. oil company ExxonMobil is reporting a "potentially significant" gas discovery off the coast of Vietnam, stating in a press release, "We can confirm ExxonMobil Exploration and Production Vietnam Limited drilled its second exploration well offshore Danang in August 2011 and encountered hydrocarbons."
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Monday, October 31, 2011
Is Economics Worthless Ideology? / Politics / Economic Theory
In fêting the latest recipients of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science, Christopher Sims and Thomas Sargent, the New York Times editorializes that somehow this is a "victory" for empiricism over theory. Although the editors don't come right out and attack theory, they make their point clear by declaring that the latest award is a "challenge to politicians who are driven more by ideology than by serious consideration of the real-world consequences of their actions." In other words, any worldview that might be influenced by real-live economic theory that reflects human action must be wrong because Sims and Sargent won the Nobel.
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Monday, October 31, 2011
Occupying Wall Street 99ers Should Pack up and Get on with Their Lives / Politics / US Politics
The 99 percent occupying Wall Street won't get much satisfaction from J.C. Chandor's Margin Call.
The occupiers want to believe that the 1 percent is Gordon Gekko stepping on their throat. Half the protesters are aged 20–29, highly educated, in hock up to their ears in student-loan debt, and unemployed. Surely this is someone's fault. The 99ers want what Wall Street has to offer: money, power, and a black town car to pick them up and shuttle them to and from work each day.
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