Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
FOMC Stays on Hold, Keeping Its Interest Rate Options Open / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The Fed is less worried about a death spiral in real economic activity and more worried about upside risks on inflation than it was at the end of April. This does not mean that the economic downside risks and inflation upside risks are equal in the eyes of the FOMC. In my opinion, the Fed remains more worried about weaker economic activity than it is about a wage-price spiral. Recent data suggest that housing is nowhere near a bottom, capital spending remains weak and the labor markets continue to soften.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Waiting for the Fed's US Interest Rate Decision and Statement / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Jennifer_Yousfi
Economists and investors wait with bated breath for the U.S. Federal Reserve to release the statement from the Federal Open Market Committee this afternoon (Wednesday) at 2:15 p.m. EDT.
While it is almost universally expected that the FOMC will vote to hold the Federal Funds rate steady at its current 2.0%, the language in the accompanying statement will be scrutinized for clues about the upcoming August and September meetings.
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Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Fed Futures Discounting Interest Rate Hikes and Dollar Support / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Black_Swan
Today begins a heavily anticipated FOMC meeting. Yeah, we know all the meetings are hyped-up quite a bit, but this one’s a little different. That’s because the head hauncho, Ben Bernanke, has changed his tone.
Coming off a series of rate cuts that’s taken the Fed Funds rate from 5.25% all the way down to 2%, Bernanke is talking like he’s already prepared to start hiking his benchmark rate right back up. His comments over the last few weeks have been aimed most directly at inflation (rather than the potential for further economic weakness). He’s even made clear remarks about the consequences of a weak U.S. dollar.
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Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Credit Crisis to Deteriorate on Credit Derivative Debacle / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $984.40 in New York yesterday and was down 17.30 cents and silver closed at $16.76, down 57 cents. Gold rallied in Asia and in early European trading to recover some of yesterday's sharp losses. Oil has risen to near record highs, above $138 a barrel again this morning and the dollar has given up much of yesterday's gains (1.557 to the Euro) and this is likely leading to gold buying.
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Monday, June 23, 2008
All Eyes on the Fed Signals on US Interest Rates and Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: William_Patalon_III
The U.S. Federal Reserve will be in the spotlight again this week - and not because of those speaking engagements that seem to help whipsaw investor emotions. Tomorrow (Tuesday) and Wednesday, central bank Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will meet with his fellow policymakers on the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2008
Fed Interest Rate Cuts Have Fed Food and Fuel Inflation / Interest-Rates / Money Supply
By: Andy_Sutton
“Between a rock and a hard place” - Over the past few months, the US Federal Reserve, amid much fanfare, has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 5.25% to 2%. This loose policy was lauded by those in the financial media as being the right thing to do to prop up the economy, and banks in particular. Bernanke went from being the goat to the hero almost overnight. Rest easy folks, our Fed Chairman is on board; finally having gotten with the program. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2008
Fed to Keep Interest Rates on Hold for Months if Not Years / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The Treasury market finally showed some signs of life last week after a multi-week annihilation. It was a relatively quiet week in bond land as traders were more preoccupied with ever rising energy prices and ever increasing problems in the financial sector. After many months of deliberations the rating agencies finally got around to downgrading the bond insurers. 2 observations are in order here: 1, don't ever never ever never rely on the rating agencies for advice as they are severely, severely lagging indicators and they have a huge conflict of interest and 2, make sure you have a chuckle and quickly dismiss anyone who is trying to sell you on the idea of efficient markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 22, 2008
How the Fiat Money System Invents Money and What's Gone Wrong / Interest-Rates / Fiat Currency
By: Mick_Phoenix
This week I want to aim the article at those who normally do not frequent financial bulletin boards or sites. You, the reader, need to help me in this cause.
People who read financial BB's are already interested and to some extent (though not always) informed about how certain economic conditions occur and can hold a healthy debate about the cures for such ills.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
$2 Trillion Credit Contraction as Consumer Debt Defaults Soar / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Shedlock
Credit is drying up everywhere. Banks are now concerned (finally), about rising credit card debt. They have every reason to be. The bankruptcy reform act of 2005, which encouraged such reckless lending is now blowing up in lenders' faces. Banks and credit card companies wrote that bill. They got everything they wanted. It goes to show you two things:
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Saturday, June 21, 2008
Fed and US Dollar Credibility at Stake Due to Financial Crises and Surging Inflation / Interest-Rates / Inflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: For the currency markets I follow, and every other financial market right now, inflation is the buzz word. Each and every new report of rising prices releases new concern — whether the threat is revealed in Brazil, the United States, Europe or even your local grocery store.
No one likes forking over more cash this month than they did last month ... for anything. But this inconvenient fact is being increasingly realized across the world.
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Saturday, June 21, 2008
Fed Emergency Liquidity Flood Not Bourn Out by the Facts / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
We constantly hear from the talking heads that the Fed's recent policy actions are creating mammoth amounts of financial liquidity. But have these talking heads bothered to look at the data? If they did, they would have to change their tune.
Let's start with the raw material of financial liquidity created by the Fed - the size of its balance sheet. Chart 1 shows that the year-over-year growth in the total assets of the Federal Reserve System was up 3.85% in the week ended June 18.
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Friday, June 20, 2008
Failed States 2008: Mexico and California / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Jim_Willie_CB
WHAT UP WITH THE MEXICAN PESO ??At the same time the US Federal Reserve relaxed its rules, expanded it Lending Facilities, and rescued big US bank balance sheets with massive swaps of USTreasury Bonds for impaired private mortgage bonds, the Mexican Peso rose. See the March timeframe. It rose above the 93.5 critical resistance. The target on the rectangular range swing is roughly 4 points, a rise to reach 97.5, which has occurred. With deep trouble south of the border in economic fundamentals, one would expect the MexPeso to falter. Three theories will be offered, each very likely, somewhat laced together. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 20, 2008
Central Banks Buying Securitized Debt to Save Banks from Collapse / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Ninety-five per cent of the credit created by UK banks in May went to buying back loans that they'd already sold to other investors..."
BANKS LOOK to lend money. Investors want to get rich. The Pope's been known to attend Mass.
Sounds simple, right? Once you've chosen your wool, just stick to your knitting.
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Friday, June 20, 2008
Fed Uses Self Created Credit Crisis to Grab Power / Interest-Rates / Market Regulation
By: Peter_Schiff
Throughout history, governments have always used crises to justify blatant power grabs. Often the crisis subsides, but the expanded government powers remain. In America this week, the tendency came into sharp focus. Congress signaled that it is preparing to perpetuate the Bush Administration's domestic wiretapping program, and has even abandoned the pretense that warrantless surveillance be confined to terrorism. Similarly, even though our financial crisis has yet to reach full flower, Treasury Secretary Paulson announced plans to give the Federal Reserve new and explicit powers to oversee and regulate the financial services industry. However, a sober look at his plan reveals that it is tantamount to giving the fox complete autonomy to guard the henhouse. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Bernanke's Interest Rate Headache / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Alex_Wallenwein
The Euro vs Dollar Currency War is back on the front burner. For years, it used to be a cold war, but now it's hot again – and Bernie can't take the heat; it gives him headaches.
Poor Bernie.
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Thursday, June 19, 2008
More Power for the Fed as the Central Bank Cooks the Books / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Mike_Shedlock
Mercury news is reporting Administration calls for giving Fed more powers . Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says the government must move quickly to give the Federal Reserve more powers to regulate the financial system. Paulson said today that the central bank's powers should be expanded in the wake of the near collapse earlier this year of Bear Stearns, the giant Wall Street investment firm.
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Tuesday, June 17, 2008
How to Drive Commodity Prices Even Higher / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Tim_Iacono
Let's see, the last two rising asset classes didn't really transform into bubbles until the Fed started raising interest rates - I'm warming up to the idea of a higher Fed funds rate.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Treasury Market Takes a Pounding, Dropping to New Lows for 2008 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The Treasury market dropped to new lows for 2008 last week. The drumbeat of inflation concerns just became a little louder not only in the USA but also internationally. Oil and its surrogates keep trucking up to new highs and corn is certainly keeping pace with them. Central Banks are talking tough but until I actually see the Fed raise rates, I remain a skeptic as to how much they are really willing to do in order to reign in the runaway commodity inflation. Although I fully believe in peak oil, I also figure that the ongoing slowdown in the global economy coupled with surprising progress in the alternative energy space will eventually reign in the present energy price problems.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Central Banks Clash Over Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / Money Supply
By: Mike_Shedlock
Food and energy prices are soaring everywhere. Eurozone inflation is a record 3.7% Inflation in the eurozone has a climbed to a record level amid higher food and fuel costs, official figures show. The annual rate of inflation in the 15 state zone hit 3.7% in May, according to the Eurostat statistical office.
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Monday, June 16, 2008
Credit Crisis Not Over, as Banks Hoard Cash / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Shedlock
In contrast to Bernanke's foolish comment "risk of substantial downturn has faded" (see Things That Have Not Yet Happened ) the Bank of England sees things differently.Read full article... Read full article...