Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
UK 1% Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The MPC meeting is widely expected by the consensus to cut UK interest rates by 0.5% today, however as my recent articles (Credit Quake Persists Ahead of UK Interest Rate Cut of 1%?) have concluded that effectively Gordon Brown cracked the MPC round table in half when he stood up at the House of Commons despatch box on 8th October to announce the interest rate cut of 0.5%, which was followed by the Bank of England's announcement. This suggests that the Monetary Policy Committee is now no longer totally in the control of setting UK interest rates and therefore in many aspects control has been transferred back into the Governments hands.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Abbey Raises Rates by 0.5% ahead of Interest UK Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Abbey in a slight of hand raised interest rates by 0.5% on its tracker range of mortgages in advance of Thursdays expected 0.5% UK base interest rate cut. This slight of hand of raising rates ahead of a rate cut then announcing cuts following the Bank of England rate cut is nothing new, for I first voiced this bad practice some 10 months ago in the article - UK Interest Rates Cuts Will Not Help the Housing Market. That the banks practice of quietly raising rates prior to interest rate cuts followed by loud announcements following the cuts thus little or no change in the mortgage rates. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
IMF Bailout of the United States Coming? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Economics has less to do with money than power. - Modern economics is not rocket science. Modern economics is a fraud. Metrics such as “monetary aggregates” and the “velocity of money” are merely devices meant to divert attention away from the fraud in progress.
Focusing on such metrics has been a critical component in the success of the bankers' extraordinary shell game of modern economics. But the current crisis has not only interrupted the bankers' confidence game, it has shed unexpected light on the precarious positions of those fleeced
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Monday, November 03, 2008
U.S. Bonds Weaker in advance of Massive Issuance of Bailout Treasury Bills / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market lost 4 points last week as the yield on the 10 year note gravitated back to the 4% level that seems to be acting as a magnet of equilibrium these days. While the bounce in the stock market has put some pressure on US Treasury and other government bonds, the real driver for interest rates at the present time is supply. There are certainly a number of other problems that are supportive for the bond market, but all the bailouts, guarantees and government as well as Federal Reserve programs will have to be paid for. It will be done with a massive increase in the issuance of Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
Credit Quake Persists Ahead of UK Interest Rate Cut of 1%? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England is expected to follow last weeks U.S. interest rate cut of 0.5% by cutting UK interest rates at Thursdays MPC meeting, speculation is growing that in the face of the economic meltdown of the economy that is falling off the edge of a cliff, that the Bank will take the unprecedented action of cutting interest rates by a whole 1%. The problem here is that as I have observed and commented on these past few years is that the Bank of England's MPC is incompetent , having repeatedly failed in all respects, which is especially apparent in its primary objective of pegging UK inflation at CPI 2% and between the boundaries of 1% and 3%, therefore will the MPC be able to make the leap and cut interest rates by a whole 1% as the economy demands ? , read on... Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Global Zero Interest Rate Policy and the "Impossible Economic Contraction" / Interest-Rates / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The global race to ZIRP is on. Let's recap the state of affairs of the mad march to zero interest rates.
Bank of Japan Cuts Rate to 0.3%
In an attempt to fend off a prolonged recession, the Bank of Japan Cuts Rate to 0.3% .
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Sunday, November 02, 2008
LIBOR Unfreezing as Fed Takes Aggressive Action to Boost Economy / Interest-Rates / US Economy
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
CNNMoney.com: Bernanke discusses future of Fannie and Freddie “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday that the federal government will need to continue to play a role in the future of the mortgage financing market.
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Saturday, November 01, 2008
Fed Desperate U.S. Interest Rate Measures / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Tim_Wood
The Fed's action to either raise or lower rates has become a major focal point for the markets in recent years. It seems that the vast majority of the public believes that the Fed is actually controlling interest rates and as a result that they are controlling the credit and equity markets. For a week before the Fed meeting it seems that the entire global markets focus on “what the Fed is going to do.” Will they cut a quarter, will they cut a half or will they not cut at all? Then, after the meeting the talking heads and analysts sit around and try to analyze the meaning of their “Fed Speak.” This is a joke. I am about to show you the proof that the Fed follows the short-term credit market and that in reality they do not lead. The data simply does not support this widely held belief. I realize that this may come as a shock to you, but reality is what it is. The data speaks for itself. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 31, 2008
Interest Rate Conundrum Heralds More Stock Market Distress / Interest-Rates / Stocks Bear Market
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: Step into my interest rate time machine for a minute, if you will. We're going back to February 16, 2005 — the day former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testified before the Senate Banking Committee.
The topic of the day was the broader economy.
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Friday, October 31, 2008
U.S. Fed Zero Interest Rate Policy Coming? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Fed did not want to cut the Fed Funds Rate below 2%. And because Congress recently granted authority for the Fed to pay interest on reserves, Bernanke thought incorrectly that he could keep rates above 2%. So much for that academic theory. Now many are wondering if ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) is coming to the Fed. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
U.S. Fed Anticipated 0.5% Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The main question is whether today's anticipated Fed rate cut will succeed in maintaining the current boost to global risk appetite, regardless of the size of the easing. Since the beginning of the market crisis 7 weeks ago, the Federal Reserve has proven more creative in its overall actions than surprisingly dovish in its rate cuts. At the last scheduled FOMC meeting, the Committee kept rates unchanged despite the collapse of Lehman Bros but offered a bridge loan to AIG. In keeping with current Modus Operandi, a 50-bp rate cut in the fed funds rate is the most likely scenario, while a 25-bp easing is more plausible than 75-bps. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Pullback in U.S. Treasury Bonds Appears Complete / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The large 6-week coil pattern in the Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) hit its 3rd coordinate on the high side last Friday at 100.00 (off of the 10/17 low at 93.02), and since has pulled back to this morning's low at 96.02, which represents a 60% correction of the 10/17-10/24 upleg. The strength off of 96.02 suggests strongly that the pullback is complete and is turning to the upside to enter a new upleg that will retest and likely hurdle resistance between 100.00 and 100.86 -- on the way to 102.00.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Global Economic Outlook Suggests Concerted Interest Rate Cuts / Interest-Rates / Global Economy
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
The financial panic that began in early September has been a body blow to global business confidence and the global economy which, according to the Survey of Business Confidence of the World conducted by Moody's Economy.com , is now in recession.
How bad is the shape of the US and global economy?
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Thursday, October 23, 2008
Mortgage Interest Rate Resets May Fuel LIBOR Market Manipulation / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:It's panic time for U.S. legislators, regulators, banks and lenders. More than $24 billion worth of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) are expected to “re-set” to higher interest rates in November – boosting the likelihood of further home foreclosures.
And it gets worse. That increase in borrowing costs will spread to other parts of the global debt market, representing an across-the board threat to corporate, institutional and sovereign borrowers. If interest rates remain high and interbank lending remains tight, the credit crisis is not likely to recede.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Investment Opportunities in Municipal Bonds? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
The $2.66 trillion municipal bond market is embroiled in the overall credit market mess, creating an unusual complex of risks and opportunities.
The supply-demand forces in the municipal bond market have been unfavorable in the past year, causing prices to decline.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Keynesian Economic Claptrap From PIMCO / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Shedlock
The amount of total nonsense currently circulating on the so called Paradox of Thrift is staggering. The paradox: An increase in saving, which is generally good advice for an individual during bad economic times, can actually worsen the macroeconomy causing a reduction in aggregate income, production, and paradoxically a decrease in saving.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
How LIBOR Threatened to Destroy the Global Banking System / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: largest financial crisis since the Great Depression has revolved around an interest rate that many U.S. investors are only now hearing about for the very first time: The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR).
But if you understand that rate, and study the forces that have been influencing it, chances are very good that you can figure out how we can escape the current banking-sector mess without wrecking the entire world economy.
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Sunday, October 19, 2008
The Mechanism Of Capital Destruction / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Professor_Emeritus
Address at the Annual Dinner of the Committee for Monetary Research and Education, CMRE
on October 16, 2008
New York City
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Friday, October 17, 2008
Why Mortgage Interest Rates Are Rising Despite Government Actions! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: The government is throwing everything … and I do mean EVERYTHING … at the credit and mortgage markets.
It has taken over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
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Thursday, October 16, 2008
Debt vs Interest Rates Conundrum / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Michael_Pento
I've written before about the dramatic rise in fixed income rates that face investors in the very near future due to the funding issues associated with our entitlement programs coupled with the incalculable measures taken by the government in the past few weeks to stem the credit crisis. Those efforts ensure the amount of Treasury issuance will explode. Read full article... Read full article...